Transcript Grenada`s
Impact of Climate Change on Grenada’s Coastal Zones Synopsis of presentation Justification for conducting Vulnerability Assessment on Grenada’s Coastal Zones Background information on Grenada, Carriacou and Petite Martinique Methodology used Problems and the way forward Justification for conducting Vulnerability Assessment on Grenada’s Coastal Zones The small size of the island and affinity to and dependence of the inhabitants on the sea. Growing coastal population and infrastructural development The high cost associated with the construction of new coastal protection structures To aid policy formulation and assist in structuring the coastal physical development of the island to ameliorate SLR repercussions To estimate and determine the biophysical impact of SLR on socio-economic sectors and human population -90° -80° -70° -60° Tropic of Cancer Gulf of Mexico (! Havana Atlantic Ocean Cuba Turks & Caicos Is. 20° 20° The Bahamas United States Cayman Is. Mexico Jamaica (! Kingston Belize Belmopan (! Haiti Port-au-Prince Dominican Republic San Juan (! (! Anguilla Puerto Rico Virgin Is. St. Kitts & Nevis Antigua & Barbuda Guadeloupe Dominica Guatemala (! San Salvador (! Caribbean Sea Tegucigalpa Martinique St. Lucia El Salvador Barbados Nicaragua (! Aruba Netherlands Antilles Managua Grenada Trinidad & Tobago 10° San Jose (! Costa Rica (! Panama Panama Pacific Ocean -90° Legend (! Cities Rivers Administrative Units Lakes -80° Robinson Projection Central Meridian: -60.00 : Central America & Caribbean -70° ArcGIS 8 Development Team March 2000 Source: ESRI Data & Maps CD Created in ArcGIS 8 using ArcMap -60° 0 50 100 200 300 Miles 10° (! Honduras Guatemala View of Pink Gin Beach showing a section of La Source Hotel. SHELL gas plant, Grand Mal Bay, located in close proximity to beach Coastal Vulnerability and Risk Assessment was conducted under component 9 of the regional Caribbean Planning for Adaptation to Climate Change Project (CPACC). Results and findings were included in the first National Communication. Main objective of CPACC is to support Caribbean countries in preparing to cope with the adverse impacts of climate change particularly sea level rise, in coastal and marine areas through vulnerability assessments, adaptation planning and capacity building linked to adaptation planning Strengthen the regional capability for monitoring and analyzing climate and sea level dynamics and trends, seeking to determine the immediate and potential impacts of global climate change. Identify areas particularly vulnerable to the adverse effects of climate change and sea level rise. Develop an integrated management and planning framework for cost effective response and adaptation to the impacts of climate change on coastal and marine areas. Methodology used by the CPACC Pilot Study was based on the UNEP V&A methodology and utilized a staged approached, viz: Stage One - Identification of problems and scope of analysis. Stage Two - Scenarios for Coastal Vulnerability Assessment. Stage Three - Impact Assessment. Stage Four - Autonomous and Planned Adaptation. Grenada Screening Assessment Matrix Biophysical Impact Human Settlements Water Resources Tourism Recreation !nfrastructure Fishing Ports Historic/Cultural Erosion 1 2 1 2 2 1 2 3 Inundation 1 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 Eco-system Loss 2 None 2 None None 1 None 3 Salinization 2 2 3 None 3 3 3 1 = Major Impact; 2 = Significant Impact; 3 = Minor Impact None Vulnerability analysis focus on the Impact of sea level rise and storm surge and flooding on the following sectors Impact on socio-economic activities. Impact on critical infrastructure. Beach erosion and inundation. Impact on water resources, including potential for saline intrusion of the water table. Impact on coastal ecosystems. Review of institutional arrangement for responding to sea-level rise. Scenarios for Coastal Vulnerability Assessment The scenarios used in the analysis were: Sea Level Rise SLR1 = 0.2 meters for 2020 SLR2 = 0.5 meters for 2050 SLR3 = 1 meter for 2100 100-year storm surge levels SS1 = SSpx1.2 (assumes 20% increase) SS2 = SSp (assumes no changes) SS3 = SSpx0.8 (assumes 20% decrease) SS2 should be applied to three years into the future SS1 and SS3 should be applied for the year 2050 and 2100 Vertical movement VM = 0 (assumes no vertical movement along the coast of Grenada) These scenarios are consistent with the predictions for sea level rise in the IPCC Second Assessment Report Storm Surge/Flooding Impacts Associated with Hurricanes HURRICANE STRENGTH FLOODING IMPACT WIND SPEED (mph) PRESSURE (mb) STORM SURGE Category 1 74 – 95 > 980 4 – 5 ft Category 2 96 – 110 965 – 979 6 – 8 ft 3 ft [1] Category 3 111 – 130 945 – 964 9 – 12 ft 5 ft Category 4 131 – 155 920 – 944 12 – 18 ft 10 ft Category 5 >155 < 920 > 18 ft 15 ft Source: National Hurricane Center SS1 (m) SS2 (m) SS3 (m) Net storm surge level (m) Year SLR (m) Flood Impact (ft) 2020 0.20 - 1 - 1.2 3.94 2050-1 0.50 1.2 - - 1.7 5.58 2050-2 0.50 - 1 - 1.5 4.92 2050-3 0.50 - - 0.8 1.3 4.27 2100-1 1.00 1.2 - - 2.2 7.22 2100-2 1.00 - 1 - 2 6.56 2100-3 1.00 - - 0.8 1.8 5.91 Flooding Impacts under CPACC Scenarios for 12 ft. Historical Storm Surge (5 ft Flooding) Year SLR (m) 2020 0.20 - 1.52 - 1.72 5.64 2050-1 0.50 1.82 - - 2.32 7.61 2050-2 0.50 - 1.52 - 2.02 6.63 2050-3 0.50 - - 1.22 1.72 5.64 2100-1 1.00 1.82 - - 2.82 9.25 2100-2 1.00 - 1.52 - 2.52 8.27 2100-3 1.00 - - 1.22 2.22 7.28 Year 2020 2050 2100 SS1(m) SS2 (m) SS3 (m) Net storm surge level (m) Potential Storm Surge Impact 3.94 – 5.64 ft 4.27 – 7.61 ft 5.91 - 9.25 ft Flood Impact (ft) THE CARTOGRAPHIC MODEL OF THE APPLICATION Input Contours Build 0 and 25 f t TIN Create Contours 0.5m Contour Interv als Select & Convert to Shapefile Contours > 0 and < 2m Clip Study Area (Poly ) Select Contours in Study Area Overlay Contours of island Poly gons 0 to 1..5 Build Polygons Snapp ed Poly lines Clean: Intersect Closed Contours & Pseudonodes in Study Area Merge Study Area (Line) Intersect Land Use Vulnerable Land Use Intersect Land Cover Vulnerable Land Cover Assign Data by Location Buildings Vulnerable Buildings The Vulnerability analysis was constrained by a number of factors Availability Baseline Data Bathymetry Data The unavailability of bathymetry data made it impossible to assess the full impacts of either sea level rise, or storm surges. This data on wave dynamics and wave energy was important to facilitate analysis of the erosion potential, and the runoff potential of the waves under the different scenarios. Its unavailability meant that the analysis that was done was a static flooding and inundation analysis. It also meant that the impacts of the various reefs and headlands that protect Grenada’s coasts on wave action and energy were not taken into consideration Contour Maps – The unavailability of contour maps below the 25 ft. contour made it impossible to model any impacts within the 0 – 1 m range Geo-referenced Cadastral Information – The unavailability of census or cadastral information for households, location of coastal infrastructure and levels for groundwater wells, in a format that could have been inputted into the GIS models limited the ability to assess socio-economic impacts. Unavailability of Relevant Models The technical team did not have many sea-level rise models to work with. It therefore had to conduct most of its analyses from first principles, relying on the technical capacities of the sectoral consultants and their abilities to incorporate climate change considerations into their technical analyses. Simulated beach erosion for Carriacou due to sea level rise Percentage total beach loss 120 100 80 dL1 dL100 60 40 20 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 Sea level rise (cm) 90 100 110 Storm surge impact on coastal Zone Stage Four involves an assessment of adaptation options, which are feasible . Autonomous Adaptation refers to responses that will happen spontaneously without policy intervention for example the moving inland of coastal wetlands. Planned Adaptation refers to policy suggestions, which could be put in place as a result of the outputs vulnerability studies, for example setbacks for buildings or new building codes. NEXT STEPS Despite its limitations, this Pilot Study has demonstrated that Grenada is very vulnerable to the potential negative impacts of climate change. It is important therefore that measures be initiated immediately to begin the process of adaptation to climate change. Sensitization of Policy Makers and Key Stakeholders It is important that the policy-makers and key stakeholders be sensitized to the potential consequences of climate change at the earliest opportunity. This is necessary, as the implementation of any response measures will require their approval and support Public Awareness and Education It will facilitate their participation in the process of developing a national response strategy; and It will provide a supportive basis for the implementation of national policies and measures initiated in response to the threat of climate change. Development of an Adaptation Framework The development of an Adaptation Framework, within the context of a National Climate Change Policy Framework, is therefore a necessary first step Capacity Building to Enhance future V&A Analyses This will require a strengthening of the capacity of the current national technical team in the short run and a broadening of the skill base to include other technical personnel in the medium to long term. Such capacity building should include. Training in the use of modeling techniques relevant to the respective sectors. Training in the establishment and use of systematic monitoring and observation processes to enhance data collection for their respective sectors. Training in the assessment and analysis of climate change impacts, including the analysis of climate variability to assess its implications for understanding the longerterm impacts of climate change Technical and human resource needs The immediate technical needs include: Technical and human resource needs (Technical needs) An identification of the available models that can be used to further enhance the various components of the vulnerability and adaptation analysis. An identification of the data needs required for the utilization of these models. An identification and initiation of the systematic observation and monitoring processes required for the collection of the required data on a systematic basis. An identification of all relevant equipment required for the data collection and analyses. The establishment of an institutional framework for the management of the overall Vulnerability and Adaptation process Human resource needs (capacity building at two levels) The capacity building needs for the members of the technical team include: Further training in the V&A methodologies that are relevant to their respective sectors. Training in appropriate V&A modeling techniques relevant to their respective sectors. Training in data collection and analysis techniques relevant to their respective sectors. The capacity building for the managerial and technical personnel in the affected institutions include: Understanding the causes and effects of climate change in general. Understanding the potential impacts of climate change on their respective sectors, the causes of the specific impacts and the options available for responding. Training in techniques for monitoring and analysis of the impact of climate change on their sectors, including data collection and modeling techniques. Training in implementing options for responding to climate change, including monitoring the impact of response measures that have been initiated. Support for integrating climate change considerations into the day-to-day management of their institutions and sectors.