Transcript Climate Change in Hertfordshire

Climate Change
in Hertfordshire
John Rumble
Sustainability Team Leader
Forward Planning
Planning and Partnership Panel – 9 March 2007
Global Warming
Planning and Partnership Panel – 9 March 2007
Climate Change Scenarios
Regional data on climate change
•
UK Climate Impacts Programme climate
change scenarios www.ukcip.org.uk
•
Describes a range of variables:
temperature, precipitation, sea level and
climatic variability
•
Low emissions and high emissions
scenarios
•
Up to 2100 (three time slices centred on
2020s, 2050s and 2080s)
Planning and Partnership Panel – 9 March 2007
Climate Change is Unavoidable
Planning and Partnership Panel – 9 March 2007
Is Man to Blame?
Source: Peter Stott, UKCIP02 Scientific Report
Planning and Partnership Panel – 9 March 2007
The Kyoto basket
Six greenhouse gases & their GWPs
GHG formula or
abbreviation
Name
Global Warming
Potential of
each GHG
relative to CO2
CO2
CH4
N2O
Carbon dioxide
Methane
Nitrous oxide
1
21
310
HFCs
PFCs
SF6
Hydrofluorocarbons
Perfluorocarbons
Sulphur hexafluoride
140-11,700
6,500-9,200
23,900
Planning and Partnership Panel – 9 March 2007
Important Sources of GHGs
Gas
Important sources in the UK
Carbon dioxide CO2
Fossil fuel combustion - transport, energy
production, domestic emissions
Agriculture, waste disposal, leakage from the
Methane CH4
gas distribution system, coal mining
Nitrous oxide N2O
Agriculture (fertiliser application), biomass
burning, coal combustion, and some industrial
processes
Planning and Partnership Panel – 9 March 2007
Projected Changes to Annual
Average Temperature in UK
Planning and Partnership Panel – 9 March 2007
Projected Changes to Seasonal
Average Precipitation in UK
Winter
Summer
Planning and Partnership Panel – 9 March 2007
E.g. temperature changes in the East of England
Change in average annual temperature
Source: UKCIP02 Climate Change Scenarios data
Planning and Partnership Panel – 9 March 2007
East of England Study
www.sustainability-east.com
Planning and Partnership Panel – 9 March 2007
Issues for The East of England
• Lack of water resources
• Pressure for development
• Coastal/fluvial/flash flooding
• Subsidence
• Higher annual temperatures
• Reduced soil moisture levels
• Sea level rise
• Coastal erosion
• Extreme events
Planning and Partnership Panel – 9 March 2007
Climate Change in Herts
• Hotter drier summers;
milder wetter winters
• Extreme high temperatures
more frequent
• Extreme winter
precipitation more frequent
• Significant decrease in soil
moisture content
• Increase in thermal growing
season
Planning and Partnership Panel – 9 March 2007
UK GHG Inventory
• 1x1km National Datasets
– Traffic
– Population
– EUETS (Pollution Inventory)
– Employment
– Agriculture
– Gas Supply
– Electricity Supply
• Point Sources
– (Refineries)
– (Power Stations)
– (Coke Production)
– Industrial/Institutional Combustion
– Cement Plant
– Other Processes
Planning and Partnership Panel – 9 March 2007
Local Authority Defra/DTI
CO2 Inventory
• Commissioned by Defra and carried out by Netcen to produce a
set of experimental statistics of carbon dioxide emissions for
local authority (NUTS4) and Government Office Region (NUTS1)
areas for the year 2003 now updated for 2004
• Makes use of DTI local gas and electricity consumption data
(electricity data are experimental)
– DTI’s commitment to “collect and make available data on the
pattern of energy use in local areas, to enable local authorities
and regional bodies to target activity more effectively”
• Study provided nationally consistent carbon dioxide emission
estimates at local authority and regional level. The data
represent the primary emissions from the consumption of fuel or
other process activities that emit CO2 plus the emissions
relevant to the production of consumed electricity.
Planning and Partnership Panel – 9 March 2007
CO2 emissions by Local Authority per
capita in 2003 (in kt CO2)
Domestic CO2 emissions by Local
Authority for 2003 (in kt CO2/km2)
Note:
Emission
intensity (per
unit area)
rather than
total emission
Planning and Partnership Panel – 9 March 2007
2006 local CO2 Emissions Basis
• Emission by Source
– Domestic
– Transport
– Industrial and Commercial Combustion
– Agriculture
– Industrial Production Processes
– Refineries
– Power Stations
– Coke Production
• Emissions by Energy End User
– Domestic
– Transport
– Industrial and Commercial Combustion
– Agriculture
– Industrial Production Processes
– Refineries
– Power Stations
– Coke Production
Planning and Partnership Panel – 9 March 2007
Addressing Everyday use and CO2 Emissions
Planning and Partnership Panel – 9 March 2007
We all contribute to Climate Change
Planning and Partnership Panel – 9 March 2007
Nottingham Declaration
on Climate Change
• The Nottingham Declaration is a
voluntary pledge to address the issues
of climate change. It represents a highlevel, broad statement of commitment
that any council can make to its own
community.
• Over 200 Councils now signed up
• The Nottingham Declaration Action Pack
was released July 2006
Planning and Partnership Panel – 9 March 2007
The Two Responses to
Climate Change
• Mitigation of climate change
slowing down global warming by reducing
greenhouse gas emissions
• Adaptation to climate change
responding to the projected impacts of climate
change
Planning and Partnership Panel – 9 March 2007
Adaptation
Mitigation
Flood defences
Water efficiency
Stronger
foundations
Heatwave plans
Insulation
Efficient
cooling for
buildings
Efficient
cooling for
transport
CHP
Emissions
trading
Solar energy
Reduction in flying
Hydrogen
fuel cells
Planning and Partnership Panel – 9 March 2007
Description
Examples
Adaptation
Mitigation
Actions which help us
Actions which help us reduce
prepare for changes in our
our greenhouse gas
climate
emissions
• Improving flood defences
• Improving energy efficiency
• Designing homes and
• Renewable energies
infrastructure for higher
• Using private cars less
temperatures
• Improving water efficiency
Geography
• Locally
• Globally
Time scale
• Short-long term
• Long-term (>40 yrs)
Planning and Partnership Panel – 9 March 2007
Using the Nottingham
Declaration Action Pack
• The structure of NDAP supports authority-wide climate action
plans, but it is designed for flexibility
• You can enter at different points in the process, building on
any existing work, or picking the ‘low-hanging fruit’ – issues of
particular concern for your authority
Planning and Partnership Panel – 9 March 2007