Transcript TOURISM AND CLIMATE CHANGE

TOURISM AND CLIMATE CHANGE:
TOWARDS A NEW METHODOLOGY
AND CONCEPTUAL MODEL OF
ASSESSMENT OF VULNERABILITY
BY
ESTHER KAGURE MUNYIRI
Lecturer, Kenyatta University
Department of Tourism Management
[email protected]
Ecotourism Conference 2012
INTRODUCTION
World
BACKGROUND
Economic activity worldwide is estimated
at some 5%
contribute 6-7% employment
worldwide
Kenya
1 million tourists in 2010 generated US$1
billion
One of the largest foreign exchange earner –
10% GDP and 9% employment
Climate is ‘average weather.
Climate is average of temperature,
precipitation and wind over a period of time
Climate change - any change in climate over
time, whether due to natural variability or as a
result of human activity
Development of interest on climate change
Late 1800’s - Evidence of anthropogenic climate change
first emerged
Late 1950s –Measured the concentration of Co2 levels in
the atmosphere
1988 - IPCC - provides scientific view of climate in IPCC
Assessment Reports.(1990, 1995, 2001 and 2007)
1992 - Earth Summit - Outcome - UNFCC (key
international treaty to reduce GHG
Tourism
First International Conference on Climate Change
and Tourism - Djerba – 2003
2nd - in Davos, Switzerland - 2007.
Impacts of climate change
Increased temperature - 0.76°C
(1850-1899 & 2001-2005)
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 Greater tropical storm intensity
and peak
 More intense precipitation events
 longer and more severe droughts
Aim of the study
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To develop a methodology and model for
the assessment of vulnerability of
tourism to climate change.
To develop stakeholders’ collaborative
and participatory strategies and
encourage political commitment in order
to tackle present and future impacts of
climate change in a sustainable manner.
LITERATURE REVIEW
Tourism and Climate
Tourism is a major contributor of
greenhouse gases which in turn contribute
to climate change.
Key resource for tourism
Tourism can be a tool for climate change
mitigation
Impacts on tourism
Climate poses a severe risk to tourism in relation to
extreme events such as floods, droughts and heat waves,
 increased infrastructure damage
 additional emergency preparedness requirements
 higher operating expenses (e.g., insurance, backup
water and power systems, and evacuations)
 business interruptions
 Competitiveness
 Profitability
Most vulnerable - the Caribbean, Small Island Developing States,
Southeast Asia and Africa.
Effect on tourism
 Tourist mobility and flows - mitigation policies that seek
to reduce GHG emissions
Through - transport costs and changed environmental attitudes
 National tourism economies of many long-haul
destinations
 Political instability of some nations
 Shift towards higher latitudes and altitudes is very
likely
 Poverty reduction, health and environmental Millennium
Development Goals affected.
Climate-induced environmental changes
 changes in biodiversity loss
 water availability
 increased natural hazards
 reduced landscape aesthetic
 altered agricultural production
 coastal erosion and inundation
 damage to infrastructure and the increasing incidence
of vector-borne diseases
The case of Kenya
Tourism in Kenya:
Contributes 18% - foreign exchange
12% - GDP
Faces a number of challenges
–safari and coastal tourism
- western markets
- leakages, and
- climate change.
A leading economic sector in the achievement
of Vision 2030 and attainment of the MDGs.
Climate change in Kenya
Kenya’s climate varies considerably
Geography
substantial arid
semi-arid area
coastal tourism resources
unique biodiversity
natural heritage
largely depends on natural
resources
Impacts on Kenya
More frequent and severe floods
Recent El Niño (1997/98) and La Niña
(1999/2000) episodes were the most severe in
50 years
the 1999 and 2000 droughts costed 2.4% of GDP
Kenya’s famine cycles have reduced from :20 years (1964-1984)
to 12 years (1984-1996)
to two years (2004-2006)
to yearly 2007/2008/2009)
 Declines in annual rainfall
 Rising temperatures
 Average annual temperatures increased by 1°C (15 % rise)
between 1960 and 2003
glaciers on Mount Kenya - disappearing, leading to the
drying up of some river streams.
82% of the icecap on mountain Kilimanjaro is gone
projected to vanish in 15 years
 Rising sea levels
Ability to cope compounded by:
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Poverty
weak institutions
poor infrastructure
lack of information
poor access to financial resources
Low management capabilities
armed conflicts
high interest rates
The destruction of ecosystems essential for the
survival of wildlife would be a great loss not only to
Africa, but to the planet.
METHODOLOGY ANALYSIS
Vulnerability and adaptation assessment
An assessment of vulnerability and adaptation
is crucial in responding to the changing
climate.
Efforts are still preliminary
Methods of vulnerability assessment
Lacks
Persistence
Timing
Likelihood
Adaptation
Future
Methodologies of vulnerability assessment
The IPCC Technical Guidelines for Assessing Climate
Change Impacts and Adaptations
The UNEP Handbook on Methods for Climate Change
Impact Assessment and Adaptation Strategies
Require a lot of data input
Methodologies and theories - limited and mostly
address demand side
Most emphases temperature
New methodology should be Bottom - up
New Methodology for tourism vulnerability assessment to climate change
1. Identify issues &
determine the scope
6. Communicate
recommendations to
stakeholders
2. Describe the current vulnerability
of impacts
5. Identify additional adaptation
strategies
3. Describe current adaptation
strategies
4. Estimate future potential
impacts and implications
New Conceptual model for assessment of tourism vulnerability to climate change
Exposure
Magnitude
% of people affected
% of damage
% revenue loss
% cost of adaptation
% loss of culture
% loss of heritage
% loss of biodiversity
Distribution
Timing
Likelihood
Population groups
Regional groups
Heterogeneity
Consequences
Salience level
Frequency
Suddenness
Linearity
Expert elicitations
Spread
Persistence &
Reversibility
Permanency
Cycles changes
Land cover changes
Loss of snow
Extinction of species
Loss of unique
cultures
Sensitivity
Livelihoods
Species habitat
Tourists perceptions
Infrastructure
Attraction characteristics
Adaptation
(Adaptive capacity)
Ability/ capacity
Resources
Feasibility
Costs
Timeliness
(Dis) incentives
Compatibility
Support
Diversification
Warning systems
Research and monitoring
Carrying capacity
Protection
Conservation
Current
Vulnerability
Without adaptation
Conclusion
The proposed conceptual model and methodology are
intended to help destination managers and other
stakeholders assess in a systematic and structured way the
vulnerability of their destinations to climate change, and to
identify feasible adaptation options.
A tourism industry that anticipates potential changes is less
affected by these changes (less vulnerable), has more
possibilities to recover from external and internal shocks
(more resilient), has more possibilities to take advantage of
the new conditions and is more likely to be successful in the
current era of rapid change.
THANK YOU