Transcript 21st century climate change in West Africa

GCM simulations for West Africa: Validation
against observations and projections for future
change
G.Jenkins, A.Gaye, A. Kamga, A.
Adedoyin, A. Garba, A. Sarr
AF20
NCAR Climate System Model
• Version 1.3 (Gent and Boville, 1998)
• Atmosphere 2.8  2.8, 18 vertical levels
• Ocean component - variable resolutions 2.3 at the poles,
1.2 at the Equator, 45 vertical levels
• Dynamic/thermodynamic Sea ice component
• Land surface model (LSM)
• Forced by greenhouse gases using starting times of 1870.
Integrated out to 2100 using A1, A2 and B2 scenarios.
• CSM has a relatively low climate sensitivity.
Current Status
• 2003- Analysed NCAR Climate System Model
(CSM) version 1.3 A1 scenario for West Africa.
• 2004- NCAR CSM simulations of West Africa :
Present-day and 21st Century Anthropogenic
Climate change, Kamga et al. under review, JGRAtmospheres
• 2004- Drive the regional climate model with CSM
data
• 2004- Will write up RegCM/CSM for publication
Climate Change- Climate Variability
linkage in West Africa
• Observed
– Reduced Rain rates
associated with:
– A southward shift in AEJ
(700 hPa)
– A weaker TEJ (200 hpa)
– Warmer surface temps.
• Can we use observed
changes as a fingerprint
for future climate and rain
rates?
Reduction in the Area of Lake
Chad
25000 km
2
To 1350 km2
from reduced rain
and irrigation
21st Century Regional Climate
Change (Temperature)
Understanding Future Climate
Change in West Africa
21st Century Regional Climate
Change (Precipitation)
Ensemble Model Approach to
Climate Change in West Africa
Single Model Approach to
Climate Change in West Africa
Single Model Approach to
Climate Change in West Africa
21st century temp./prec. diff
Temperature (Observations and
CCSM)
Precip. (Observations and CSM)
CSM and Observed annual
Precipitation. comparison
CSM and Observed annual
Temperature comparison
Observed and simulated Sahelian
Precipitation anomalies (20th century)
Observed and simulated Sahelian
Temperature anomalies (20th century)
Sahelian 21st temp. trends
Sahelian 21st century Temp.
anomalies
Sahelian 21st century
precipitation trends
Sahelian 21st century
Precipitation anomalies
20th and 21st annual Temp. comparison
20th and 21st annual Precip. comparison
Conclusion
• CSM suggest that the region will become:
• Warmer by 1.5-2.5C based on SRES scenarios.
• Wetter --especially in the Sahel - due to an
increase in low-level moisture (strengthening of
monsoon flow).
• Only small changes noted for Easterly waves.
• CSM has significant biases in SLP, Surface air
temperatures, precipitation and 200 hpa Zonal
winds.
Future Activities
• Downscaling -- running a regional climate model
(RegCM) for present-day and future climates.
• Identifying biases in both GCM and regional climate
model simulations.
• Publishing results.
• Work to reduce biases in GCM/RegCM.
• Will use CSM 2.0 and CSM 3.0 data in the future.
• Build human scientific capacity for decades of future
research!!
Future Directions
• Analyze CCSM 2.0/3.0- Biases in Sea level
Pressure, upper level winds much smaller.
• Use A1, A2, B2 simulations from new
CCSM runs to drive regional climate model.