Transcript Climate change research in the 7th Framework Programme

SBSTA Dialogue on developments in research
activities relevant to the needs of the Convention
Climate change research in the 7th Framework
Programme: Results & new initiatives
Bonn, 3 June 2010
Dr. Elisabeth LIPIATOU
Head of Unit ‘Climate Change and
Environmental Risks Unit’’
DG Research European
Commission
FP7: A regional research programme with
global scope
International cooperation in FP7
• FP7 is a programme open to the world with in total 39 States
contributing
• FP7 is open to participation of all countries of the world
• FP7 provides support for climate research in and by developping
countries
FP relative contribution to Non Annex 1
Countries
FP7
• Recent results
Climate research-Key results
Transport
Temperature changes for different scenarios and
transport modes
Climate research-Key results
AEROSOLS
More indirect
aerosol
cooling
Sensitivity of
CCN from
uncertainty in
processes (e.g
nucleation)
and emissions
(RCPs and
biogenic)
Current day: aerosol
indirect cooling effect
of same order as CO2
forcing (although with
still high uncertainty)
Not taking
account
secondary
aerosol
-(1.3 –1.5)
+1.5
W/m2
-(0.1 – 0)
+(2.3 ~ 6.6)
W/m2
0
Future:
Aerosol indirect
cooling effect
almost same as
pre-industrial,
CO2 forcing
continues to
raise
0
Less indirect
aerosol
cooling
Pre-Industrial
situation
(model ECHAM5-HAM)
Year
Source: Makkonen et al,
manuscript in preparation
Climate research-Key results
Full cost of climate change
ClimateCost provides major research into
economic policy tools
Development of PAGE-model – a model
used in the Stern Review
5% Probability line
Global annual total of impacts given the
IPCC A1B scenario
Impacts include sea level rise, economic,
non-economic and discontinuity
50 % chance of approaching 20 trillion
$/year in 2200; 5 trillion $/year in 2100
5% chance of approaching 50 trillion $
/year in 2200!
By comparison, Global GDP was 70.21
trillion $ in 2009!
Mean
25% Probability line
5% Probability line
Climate research-Key results
ARCTIC
DAMOCLES
September 2008 and 2009 had the second and third lowest summer ice extents ever observed.
Projection show that sea-ice in
summer might completely disappear by
the end of this century.
Unless emissions are curbed
significantly, a stabilisation of the Arctic's
climate system will be unlikely
Climate research-Key results
Ocean acidification
•Model results indicate that under summer conditions 10% of Arctic
surface waters will become under saturated within 10 years and
most of the surface Arctic by mid-century.
•In the Canary Current system, simulations indicate both strong seasonal
upwelling of under saturated waters and a trend that will render half the waters
above 250 m to become under saturated by year 2050.
FP7
• New initiatives
Key issues highlighted in the ‘Accord’importance of research
• Projections of impacts of a global temperature change up to 2°C
for Europe and in vulnerable regions,
• Need for robust monitoring, reporting and verification
methodologies related to the implementation of policy
commitments
• The design of mechanisms for reducing emissions from
deforestation and land use
• Robust quantification of emission reduction potential and
associated costs in key sectors.
• Adaptation actions to minimise the adverse impacts of climate
change
Climate research- New initiatives (2010-11)
Global targets – feasibility and affordability (2o C and below)
•
Impacts of a global temperature increase up to 2°C from preindustrial level, in Europe and most vulnerable regions of the world
•
Mitigation measures in the world's major economies compatible
with global temperature increase up to 2°C
Climate research- New initiatives (2010)
Improve climate projections-future climate, an issue of scale
Modelling: improving climate projections require sustained upstream
efforts on the development of models. New projects.
Downscaling: climate projections need to address finer geographical
scales. Funding is provided to these activities essential notably to the
development of climate services.
Climate research - New initiatives (2010)
Climate services
• Global Monitoring for Environment and Security (GMES) addresses
challenges and next steps for the space component including services.
• Joint GEO-IPCC Expert Consultation – How GEOSS could serve the data
needs of the climate communities and support the IPCC assessment
(Geneva, date to be confirmed).
Climate research- New initiatives (2009)
Climate Change impacts on Water and Security in
Southern Europe and neighboring regions
Multi-disciplinary approach: Environment and Social Sciences
Location of study areas
• Integrated monitoring and modelling system to
reduce uncertainties in climate change impact
analysis (CLIMB)
• Quantification of risks including socio-economic
factors. (WASSERMed)
• Climate change, hydrological impact on national
security and armed conflicts. Vulnerability and
adaptation (CLICO)
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Climate research- New initiatives (2010)
Agriculture, Food Security and Climate Change
Joint Programming Initiative
Impacts
Climate change
Agriculture and forestry
Net greenhouse gas
Food
security
Adaptation
Biodiversity
Mitigation
Land use change
Water
Climate research- New initiatives (2009-2010)
Arctic
•Assessing and quantifying climate change impacts on key sectors
(maritime transport, fisheries, tourism and resource extraction) and on how
these sectors could affect the Arctic environment
•EU and Russia cooperation for enhancing GMES earth observation
coverage.
•Research infrastructures for polar research: Interdisciplinary observation
and monitoring stations for atmospheric, terrestrial and marine studies
Climate research- New initiatives (2009-2010)
Carbon cycle research
•Impacts of climate variability and weather extremes on terrestrial
carbon sinks. Response of soil carbon to increasing temperature.
(CARBOEXTREME)
•Annual to decadal variability of carbon and GHG budgets of terrestrial
ecosystems. CO2, CH4, and N2O.(GHG Europe)
•Vulnerability of the ocean carbon sources and sinks under future
climate conditions. (CARBOCHANGE)
Context of communication post-Copenhagen
General public
Goal: To sustain and enhance the credibility of scientific information; to go
beyond the social awareness, facilitating active behavioural engagement
Message to emphasize the regional and local dimension of information of the impacts and
implications at individual level; Present information in a way that affirms rather than threatens
people’s values.
Policy makers
Goal: To increase awareness and use of research results relevant to the
policy making process
Communication to focus on scientific evidence and propose policy options; explain research
methods used will increase credibility; new mechanisms to improve ‘translation’ of results.
Thank you for your attention
Contact: [email protected]