Transcript Projecting change

Vulnerability and adaptive
capacity of biodiversity in Wales
Dr Clive Walmsley
Countryside Council for Wales
Climate change impacts are
widespread and happening now
N
S
Hickling et al. 2006, Global Change Biology
Many future threats &
opportunities facing UK biodiversity
• Frequency of extreme weather events
• Increased risk of fire
• Facilitation of non-native invasive species through climate change
and invasional meltdown
• Dramatic changes in freshwater flows
• Increased demand for biofuel and biomass
• Facilitate species range change in face of climate change
• Sea-level rise resulting in loss of coastal/intertidal habitats
• Reduction of coldwater continental shelf habitats
• Significant increase in coastal and offshore power
• Ocean acidification
• Nature conservation policy and practice may not keep pace
with environmental change
• Geo-engineering to mitigate effects of climate change
Sutherland et al. 2008, J. Appl. Ecol.
Climate Change Strategy
for Wales
• Programme of Action Sets out
proposed actions to deliver climate
change objectives
• Emission reduction by business,
transport, residential, waste, public,
agriculture and land use sectors
• Adaptation to climate change in our
environment, economy and society
• Importance of behavioural change in
all sectors
CCW’s Climate Change
Position Statement
• Monitoring - climate change and
its impacts to inform action
• Projecting change - in climate
and its environmental impacts to
inform action
• Understanding and awareness
- climate change, its impacts and
potential responses
• Enhancing resilience development of actions and
policies that improve resilience
• Reducing emissions - an
integrated approach to our own
and facilitating others
Monitoring climate change
Yr Wyddfa/Snowdon ECN site
© CCW
Monitoring climate change
Marine: Skomer MNR
Projecting future change:
greater horseshoe bat
2020s High
2050s High
2080s High
Scenario
Scenario
Scenario
Type of weather event reported
Spatial
distribution
of reported
weather
events
corrected by
population
Sites ranked based
on proportion of
habitat area assessed
as highly vulnerable
to climate change
over the next 20
years
Wilson et al. 2010.
Welsh SSSIs & SACs containing
highly vulnerable habitat features
a) SSSIs (406 sites)
b) SACs (79 sites)
13%
18%
26%
54%
28%
61%
H habitats
M habitats
L habitats
H habitats
M habitats
L habitats
Wilson et al. 2010. CCW Science Report No. 942. Climate Vulnerability Assessment of Designated Sites in Wales
UK Biodiversity Partnership:
guidelines
•Actions we can start now – not
requiring new policy or
legislation
•No regrets –good things to do
even without climate change
•Set the direction of change not
the final destination
•Maintaining Protected Areas
and their appropriate
management underpins all
other elements of advice
Develop measures that improve
resilience to climate change
Collating case studies
and evidence
• Enhancing resilience at a local
or landscape scale
• Monitoring and projecting
impacts
• Understanding and awareness
of adaptation issues
• Emissions reduction projects
with synergy for biodiversity
adaptation