Transcript Climate Change presentation

Climate Change:
Science and Modeling
John Paul Gonzales
Project GUTS Teacher PD
6 January 2011
Important Concepts
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“Climate” vs. “Weather”
Important Concepts
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“Climate” vs. “Weather”
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Weather: The short-term state of the atmosphere. Local
conditions of heat, humidity, pressure, wind, cloud cover.
Important Concepts

“Climate” vs. “Weather”
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Weather: The short-term state of the atmosphere. Local
conditions of heat, humidity, pressure, wind, cloud cover.
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Climate: Long term regional trends of weather patterns
measured in decades or even centuries. Average statistics of
heat, rainfall, humidity.
Important Concepts

“Climate” vs. “Weather”
“Climate is what you pack for.
Weather is what you wear that day.”
Important Concepts

“Climate” vs. “Weather”
“Climate is what you pack for.
Weather is what you wear that day.”
Important Concepts
Important Concepts
Climate Stability and Climate Change
Climate Stability and Climate Change
Like weather, climate changes over time
Climate Stability and Climate Change
Like weather, climate changes over time:
Climate Stability and Climate Change
We know that global climate change is occurring now as well:
•The period between 1990 and today has been the warmest
period in the global temperature record,
collected since the mid-1800s
•The difference between past climate change and the climate
change we are experiencing now is that according to the
IPCC “it [is] very likely (meaning more than 90%
likely) that most of the warming is
anthropogenic or human-induced.”
Climate Stability and Climate Change
Like weather, climate changes over time
Climate Stability and Climate Change
Evidence for current Climate Change:
1) Carbon dioxide levels and levels of other
greenhouse gases have been rising for
at least 50 years.
Climate Stability and Climate Change
2) Carbon from fossil fuels is being added
to the atmosphere.
3) Evidence from ice cores show a very
strong correlation between carbon
dioxide levels and global temperatures
Climate Stability and Climate Change
4) The greenhouse effect is not in dispute.
5) The Earth’s surface temperature has
increased sharply in recent years.
Impact of Climate Change
Impact of Climate Change
Impact of Climate Change
Various impacts of climate change are projected
such as:
• Changes in surface temperature
• Changes in precipitation and
• Sea level changes
Impact of Climate Change
Scientists predict more severe weather, such as storms, floods, or
droughts.
•increases in precipitation are very likely in polar regions
•increases in droughts are likely in subtropical and tropical regions.
•Low-lying island nations will be threatened by rising sea levels.
•Extreme weather events, such as floods and hurricanes, are
predicted to become more common.
Impact of Climate Change
Biological effects of climate change are already noticeable:
•Some plants are blooming earlier in the Spring.
•There have been shifts in the ranges of species
•20 – 30% of plant and animal species are likely to be at
increased risk of extinction.
Impact of Climate Change
•A small amount of global warming (up to 3
ºC) would be favorable for global food
production
•But a greater than 3 ºC temperature
increase would have a negative effect overall.
•In arid and tropical regions (such as New
Mexico), even a small increase in average
temperature is expected to decrease crop
productivity.
Climate as a Complex System
Climate as a Complex System
Climate as a Complex System
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A system with many different variables.
Climate as a Complex System
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A system with many different variables.
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Heat
Moisture
Pressure
Greenhouse Gases
Albedo
Climate as a Complex System

A system with many different variables.
Climate as a Complex System
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A system with many different variables.
A system with feedback loops.
Climate as a Complex System
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A system with many different variables.
A system with feedback loops.
Outputs
Inputs
Climate as a Complex System
Water
Temperatures
Less Snow and
Ice
More sunlight
absorbed by
land and sea
Climate as a Complex System
Climate Modeling
Climate Modeling
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Abstract The Problem
Climate Modeling
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Abstract The Problem
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Variables:
Temperature
Humidity
Wind Currents
Ocean Currents
Climate Modeling
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Abstract The Problem

Variables:
Temperature
Humidity
Wind Currents
Ocean Currents
Climate Modeling
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Abstract The Problem
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Variables
Variables:
Temperature
Moisture
Humidity
Wind Currents
Ocean Currents
Climate Modeling
Variables
Climate Modeling
Climate Modeling
Climate Modeling
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