Transcript issues and challenges of island environment

Dr. S. Dam Roy
Director, ICAR-CIARI
WORLD
ENVIRONMENT
DAY
ISSUES AND CHALLENGES OF ISLAND
ENVIRONMENT
2015
What is Climate change?? …
Everyone has heard the phrase, but
what does it actually mean?
“Climate Change = The change in average conditions of a
particular place over a long period of time. (We usually link
‘climate change’ to rising temperatures but this is NOT the
full story).
HINT: Climate is what you expect, Weather is
what you get!
Climate Change vs Global Warming
Global warming refers to the rise in
average surface temperature of the
earth.
Climate change refers to all changing factors of
Earth’s climate including temperature, rain, wind
and humidity. Temperature is not the only thing
that is changing and it is not just getting hotter.
Interesting revelations on climate
change…
“Use of energy in New York can affect the life of birds in the
Harren Island on the Great Barrier Reef in Australia”
“Climate change has taught us how closely the world is
connected”
“The contribution of Islands to Climate Change is
insignificant (0.03%)but they stand first in facing the
brunt of Climate Change….”
Increasing temperature trend..
According to the IPCC, Fourth Assessment Report, warming of the climate
system is unequivocal, as is now evident from observations of increases in
global average air and ocean temperatures, widespread melting of snow and ice,
and rising global mean sea level.
Increasing global sea level rise trend..
Islands will experience
the first effect of sea
level rise
Islands like Car Nicobar,
Chowra
are
most
vulnerable
Though the effect may
not be immediate it will
surely influence the
livelihood in future
Shift of SST in India- A Scenario
Ocean Acidification…An another concern for
Marine ecosystems..
Some of the excess CO2 in the
atmosphere is also being
dissolved into the ocean.
This is causing the water to
become more acidic.
This is bad news for marine
ecosystems, especially to coral
reefs, fish, marine mammals and
other animals who call the ocean
their home. It is also bad news for
those who rely on fishing for their
businesses or as a source of food.
Importance of climate change and associated
effects
Growth reduction &
Mortality
Multiple stress
(Thermal + pH)
pH stress
Thermal stress
Changes in
temperature
Bio-molecular
changes
Climate
change
Acid rain
Organic decomposition
Changes Ammonia level
Changes in pH
in the
environment
Integrated Assessment Model for Climate Change on
Ecosystem
CLIMATE CHANGE
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Climate change
impacts on ecosystem
Temperature variation
Sea level rise
Changes in rain pattern
Depletion of Oxygen
Droughts and floods
•
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Socio-Economic Impact
Environmental
Impacts
• Income
Societal
adaptation
Distribution Pattern
Species Extinction.
Disease Susceptibility
Livelihood
ADAPTATION
• Employment
• Malnutrition
• Reduction in ancillary activity
Mitigation Measures
Interactions with Multiple
Stressors
• Local Adaptation
• Advance information & planning
• Reduction in Anthropogenic emissions
MITIGATION
• Biotechnological & genetic manipulation
• Dietary manipulation (Neutracueticals)
Physiological Impact
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Migration to comfortable zone
Maturation & Breeding Cycle
Embryonic development
Hypoxia
Changes at Organism, cellular, molecular
& organelles level
Failure
Species Extinction
Physiological adaptation
Climate induced in marine ecosystems…
Physical
Temperature & Sea level
Salinity, pH, Currents
Nutrients
Oxygen
Ice cover
Turbulence & mixing
Wind - Speed & Direction
Storm -Frequency/intensity
Evaporation
Precipitation & Runoff
Ecological
Fisheries
Species distribution
Productivity
Reproduction &
Recruitment
Distribution
migration, abundance
Physiology & Behaviour
Sex ratios
Calcification rates
Upwelling
Coastal habitat loss
Coral bleaching
frequency & severity
Disease Incidence
Algal blooms
Species availability
Days at sea
Accidents
Loss of harbour/ homes
Damage to assets
High insurance costs
Livelihood
diversification
Difficulty in seasonal
livelihood activities
Consequences of climate change…
● Increase in air temperature
● Increase in sea surface temperature (SST)
● Increase in sea-level
● Increase in CO2 in atmosphere and water
● Changes in rainfall/ extreme rainfall events
● More extreme weather conditions- more number of
cyclones, hurricanes and typhoons
Some Negative Consequences of climate
change…
• In Asia alone more than a billion people will be affected by water
shortage by 2050.
• Changes to India's annual monsoon are expected to result in severe
droughts and intense flooding in parts of India.
• With more than 60% of agriculture dependent on rain-fed crops, even
modest alteration in the intensity, frequency and timing of rainfall
should cause a large negative impact on food production.
• Increase in water borne diseases such as cholera and hepatitis, as
well as diseases carried by insects such as malaria.
• Climate change is expected to contribute to air quality problems and
respiratory disorders will increase due to warming-induced increases
in the frequency of smog.
Why our Islands are significant in CC context…
• Limited physical size in case of Nicobar Islands: Makes coastal
retreat impossible where entire islands may be inundated
• Relative isolation
• Limited natural resources and over exploitation
• Import dependence on external markets
• Intra- and inter-island migration
• Growing urbanization: e.g. degrading natural sea defenses
• Poorly infrastructure, Limited funds and human resource skills
severely limits the capacity to adapt
Important events concerning
Islands …
Over past decade the Islands have witnessed
significant events concerning climate change and
meteorological parameters
X PLAN
2002
2007
Tsunami
Major destruction in Andaman
and Nicobar Islands
Land subduction
Inundation of sea water in agri
fields
2007
2012
Mass bleaching of corals in
Andaman
60-70% of live corals damaged
2017
Major dry season incidence
Reduced rainfall
Major cyclone incidences
Climate change vis-a –vis Andamans …
Andaman Group of Islands
• Mountainous volcanic islands
• Threats due to sea-level rise is NOT severe
• But there is threat to livelihood due to loss of key habitats
Nicobar Group of Islands
• Coral Islands: Mostly flat topography
• Rise in sea-level would mean higher tides/storm surges
• Extreme climates may affect the freshwater supply
• Threats to livelihood due to loss of land, key habitats
Climate change vis-a –vis Andamans …
Three
pillars
Economy
● Tourism
● Fisheries
● Agriculture
of
Coastal Habitats affecting
Tourism and fisheries
Bleaching of corals in Andaman waters…
Due to the elevated SST and
subsequent mass bleaching in
2010, 60-70% of corals have been
destroyed in Andaman
Aug 2010
May 2010
Damage to corals due to
Myanmar Storm, May 2011
Mangroves and its importance…
• All social and ecological value depending on
Mangroves will be affected.
• Income of fishermen will be drastically
affected.
• Commercial fisheries related to Mangrove
ecosystem will be affected.
• Loss of habitat for a number of molluscs,
birds, insects, crustaceans, monkeys, and
reptiles.
• Mangrove destruction will affect coastal
development and human safety.
Influence on Marine Fisheries….
• Loss of corals and mangrove ecosystems would result in
reduction in recruitment of fishes and thus productivity.
• Increased temperature reduces dissolved oxygen and also
leads to harmful algal blooms : Mass mortality of fish
• Climate change alters local ecosystems – competitors and
predators
• Increases risk involved in fishing (due to storms/cyclones)
• Loss of fishing infrastructure
Chowra is the most
vulnerable island to
climate-associated
disasters
Agricultural
Vulnerability map
prepared based on
multiple parameters
showed that about 20% of
the area in Car Nicobar
has high vulnerability to
climate change
Coral Demise Model Predictions…
1. Corals in Indian Seas bleached during 1998, 2002 and
2010 due to high seawater temperature.
2. Considering the threshold temperature of bleaching;
and how many times the threshold will be exceeded in
this century, the number of bleaching events until 2100
was predicted.
3. It appears that coral bleaching may be an annual event
from the year 2020.
Predicted demise of Indian corals
Region
Andaman
Decade at which
corals begin to
decline
2030 - 2040
Decade at which
corals would be
remnant
2050 - 2060
Nicobar
2020 - 2030
2050 - 2060
Lakshadwee 2020 - 2030
p
Gulf of
2030 - 2040
Mannar
Gulf of
2030 - 2040
Kachchh
2030 - 2040
2050 - 2060
2060 - 2070
Effect on climate change on neighborhood countries…
Bangladesh
Myanmar
Thailand
Effect on climate change on neighborhood countries…
A Least Developed Country with an Unstable
political environment
Burma
Donors don’t trust govt and hence no funds
flow
Poor response from Govt. to deal with climate
change
Unprotected coasts
Witnessing adverse climate changes (Frequent
floods/Cyclones) almost every year during
last three decades.
Effect on climate change on neighborhood countries…
1% of the world’s tropical storms hit Bangladesh.
Bangladesh
More than 36% of the people live below poverty
line.
Per capita income is US $370, emphasizing the
economic depression.
Climate models estimate a constant increase of
temperature in Bangladesh and vulnerability to
water related diseases.
Effect on climate change on neighborhood countries…
• Low level lands, occupying
80% of the country – they are
disaster prone.
• About 10% of the country is
hardly 1 m above the mean
sea level.
• Higher population density
(>1209 persons per km2; 133
million people) limits the
migration within the country.
Effect on climate change on neighborhood countries…
Effect on climate change on neighborhood countries…
1.
Coastal regions of Thailand are
extremely vulnerable to climate
changes.
2.
Coastal
erosion,
altered
wetlands, frequent floods are
some of the observed impacts of
climate change.
3.
Most of the population reside in
proximity to the oceans.
4.
Landslides pose a serious threat
to these coastal villages.
Thailand
How nearby countries influence our security …
• Displaced people may move to our islands. As the
population is ethnically similar to our population it is
difficult to identify them. These will be potential
security risk
• Loss of livelihood of this huge population may lead to
poaching in our seas.
• This can also lead to their taking up drug trafficking, gun
running using our sea routes at the behest of bigger
player antagonistic to our interests
Climate Change will surely Influence …
• Tourism
• Food security
• Infrastructure
• Economic and Financial Impacts
• Coastal and Marine resources
• Water resources
• Health
Key message: Adaptation is a ‘no regrets’
strategy with immediate benefits
Adaptation is an opportunity to improve:
• natural resource management and physical planning
• ability to deal with the natural hazards as well as the growing
human-induced stresses on the environment.
• Adaptive responses can be:
– Technological (e.g. improving coastal defences)
– Managerial (e.g. introducing crop rotation)
– Policy-based (e.g. strengthening planning regulations)
– Behavioural (e.g. preparing one’s home for a hurricane)
Key message: Good
climate policy should
adapt and mitigate.
Reactions….