Transcript Supplementary material for Lesson 5 - EACLIPSE

Changing Land Use:
Supplementary Material to Lesson 5 of the
“East Africa Climate Change Curriculum Unit”
Available at http://www.eaclipse.msu.edu/teaching_materials.html
Lesson 5 by Barbara Naess.
PowerPoint based on materials by Jennifer M. Olson.
The Eaclipse Project is supported by
National Science Foundation Award No. BCS/CNH 0709671.
http://eaclipse.msu.edu
© 2010 Michigan State University Board of Trustees
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Lesson 5: Changing Land Use
Supplementary Material
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In this lesson you will
• Look at historical changes in land use in
Southeast Michigan
• Make predictions about future land cover
changes in East Africa
• Learn how scientists measure and predict
changes in land use and vegetation
• Discuss the effects of projected land use
changes in the East African savanna
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Causes of Climate Change
Human Activity and the Greenhouse Effect
OUTER EDGE OF
ATMOSPHERE
Absorbed
Radiation absorbed
by Greenhouse gases
Oil & petroleum engines etc
LAND USE CHANGE:
deforestation
expansion of agriculture
Absorbed by earth &
atmosphere
CFCs
Greenhouse gases
from burning fossil fuels:
Power plants
factories
• Greenhouse gases due to burning of fossil fuels and
other pollution
• Decreased ground cover/vegetation due to changes in
land use
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Changes in Ground Cover
Source: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Admininstration: http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/extremes/2002/april/extremes0402.html
• Decreased vegetation due to changes in land use can lead to
– More sunlight reflecting from the ground
– Less soil moisture; greater evaporation
– Smoother surface, windier
– Less CO2 absorbed by vegetation
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Changing Land Use
How is land use related to vegetation?
• When people change how they use the land, the
vegetation changes
• Forests are cut for farmland, fuel, building materials,
and development (deforestation)
• Natural areas or farms are replaced by housing and
commercial development (urbanization)
• Some farming and grazing practices can lead to soil
erosion, or in extreme cases, desertification
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Land Use Changes
Photo Credit: Jennifer M. Olson
Photo Credit: Jennifer M. Olson
Photo Credit: Jennifer M. Olson
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Land use changes can be brought
about by
•
•
•
•
Population growth and migration
Urbanization
Logging
People clearing bushland or forests for
farming
• Companies using land for different
commercial purposes
• Governments making policies promoting
certain uses over others
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Changing Land Use and Vegetation
How are they related to climate change?
Less vegetation and ground cover may contribute to
climate change, especially at the local level:
•
•
•
•
Less sunlight absorbed by vegetation
Smoother surface, windier
Less moisture retention; greater evaporation
Less CO2 taken up by vegetation
(carbon sequestration)
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Changes in Land Use in Southeast
Michigan
Source: Southeast Michigan Council of Governments (www.semcog.org)
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Source: Southeast Michigan Council of
Governments (www.semcog.org)
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Source: Southeast Michigan Council of
Governments (www.semcog.org)
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Source: Southeast Michigan Council of
Governments (www.semcog.org)
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Changes in Land Use and
Vegetation 1990-2000
Source: Southeast Michigan Council of Governments (www.semcog.org)
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Land Cover in 2000 in Tanzania
Source: Climate-Land
Interaction Project
(CLIP), Bryan
Pijanowski
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Discussion Questions
• How has land use changed in Southeast
Michigan in the last 200 years (from map)?
• How did it change in the ten years from 1990 to
2000 (map and data)?
• How accurate do you think your predictions
might be?
• What information might be missing?
• How do you think the changes in land use and
vegetation might affect the local and regional
climate?
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Projecting Future Changes
• Scientists take the data they have and
graph change over time.
• They identify the causes of the change,
and how those causes will themselves
evolve.
• By understanding how the underlying
causes evolve, they can better predict the
future. For example, if migration is causing
land use change but migration is slowing
down, land use change will slow down.
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Are predictions accurate?
• Predictions may be flawed, because
nobody can predict with complete accuracy
what will happen to all of the different
causes contributing to change, but…
• Predictions tell us what is likely to happen
if we are correct in our assumptions.
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Do predictions always come true?
The good news is:
• If climate change is caused by human
activity…
• People can take actions to reduce,
reverse, or adapt to climate change.
• That’s why it is important to understand
how human-climate-land systems work!
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The Climate-Land
Interaction Project:
Measuring and Predicting Changes in
Climate, Land Use, and Vegetation
in the East African Savanna
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CLIP Methodology
• Identify trends in climate
• Develop a climate model for East Africa using
climate and land surface data
• Develop land use change & crop models
• Combine climate, land use & crop models to
simulate future climate (2050)
• Compare climate vs. land use effects
• Identify impacts on
o
o
o
o
o
crop yields
savanna vegetation
livestock productivity
livelihoods
diseases
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Comparing the Relative Importance of
the Causes of Climate Change
• Greenhouse Gases (GHG) from the
global scale
• Land use change from the local to
regional scale
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Land Use Change
Land cover in 2000
Land cover in 2050 (projected)
Source: Climate-Land Interaction Project (CLIP), Bryan Pijanowski
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Differences in Temperature (RCM)
Climate Change (GHG) LCLUC
Effects
Effects
Source: Climate-Land Interaction Project (CLIP), Nathan Moore et al.
Combined Effects
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Differences in Precipitation (RCM)
Climate Change
(GHG) Effects
Land Use Change
(LUC) Effects
Synergistic Effects
Source: Climate-Land Interaction
Project (CLIP), Nathan Moore et al.
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Difference in Maize Yields Due to GHG and LUC
2000 to 2050
Green=increase
in yields
Brown=decline
in yields
Source: Climate-Land Interaction Project (CLIP), Gopal Alagarswamy et al.
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Effect of Changing Land Use and
Climate on Savanna Vegetation
• Deforestation, urbanization, expansion of cropland, and
overgrazing are changing savanna vegetation and
decreasing ground cover
• Decreased vegetation and ground cover cause less moisture
retention
• Warmer temperatures due to climate change lead to
vegetation drying faster and water becoming scarce faster
• Predictions show:
–
–
–
–
Crops less productive
Less quality livestock food
More severe droughts
More diseases
Photo Credit: Jennifer M. Olson
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EACLIPSE Research Questions
• How does savanna vegetation respond to
a changing climate?
• What are the combined effects of land
management and climate change on
savanna vegetation?
• Does land management have a large
enough impact on savanna vegetation to
change the local or regional climate?
• How are people adapting their livelihood
systems in response to climate change?
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• In this lesson, you have learned about the final parts of
the savanna human-land-climate system loop and saw
how changes in land use and vegetation can in turn
affect climate change, closing the loop.
• This science module focused on climate change,
vegetation, and land use.
• The social studies module takes a closer look at the
larger social-cultural, political, and economic factors
that affect livelihoods and land use.