Transcript The Triple Challenges of Carbon Reduction, Energy Security and

Renewable Energy: Exploring the Options
20th September 2011
The Triple Challenges of Carbon Reduction, Energy Security
and Cost of our Future Energy Supplies
Recipient of James Watt Gold Medal
CRed
carbon reduction
Keith Tovey (杜伟贤) M.A., PhD, CEng, MICE, CEnv
Reader Emeritus in Environmental Sciences; Energy Science Adviser CRed
Norwich Business School, University of East Anglia:
[email protected]
The Triple Challenges of Carbon Reduction, Energy Security and
Cost of our Future Energy Supplies
Businesses and Individuals are faced with three
challenges associated with Energy Use:
• Increasing Evidence of Anthropogenic Climate Change
– and consequential legislation
• Issues of Energy Security – particularly in UK
• The need to minimise cost exposures to price fluctuations in
Energy
These Challenges can be addressed by:
• Moving to Low Carbon Energy Supply
• Employing Technical Solutions to improve efficiency of EndUse Energy.
• Promoting Effective Energy Management and Awareness
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among users.
Energy Security is a potentially critical issue for the UK
140
Gas Production and Demand in UK
On 7th/8th December 2010: UK
Production was only 39%: 12%
from storage and 49% from
imports
Billion cubic metres
120
100
Import
Gap
80
60
Actual UK production
40
Actual UK demand
Projected production
Projected demand
20
0
2004
Prices have
become much
more volatile
since UK is no
longer self
sufficient in
gas.
2008
2012
10
8
6
2016
2020
Wholesale Electricity Prices
12
p/kWh
2000
Completion of
Langeled Gas
UK becomes net Line to Norway
importer of gas
4
Oil reaches
$140 a barrel
2
CRed
carbon reduction
0
2001
2003
2005
2007
2009
2011
3
Variation in Wholesale and Retail Electriity Prices
Electricity Indicies: 2001 = 100
700
600
wholesale
retail
500
400
• In recent years,
electricity retail prices
have varied much less
than wholesale prices
and have also risen
less.
300
200
100
0
2001
2003
2005
2007
• In Real Terms, Domestic
Electricity Prices have only
recently returned to 1981 levels
2009
2011
Real Retail Price Variations in
Electricity (1981=100)
120
100
80
60
40
20
CRed
4
carbon reduction
0
1981
1991
2001
2011
What is the magnitude of the CO2 problem?
50
45
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
Developing
EU
Other OECD
UK
France
Transition
Oil Producing
Pakistan
India
Namibia
Brazil
Turkey
China
Mexico
Lithuania
Sweden
Switzerland
France
Ukraine
South_Africa
Libya
Norway
Italy
Greece
UK
Denmark
Japan
Germany
Russia
Netherlands
US
UAE
Qatar
tonnes/capita
How does UK compare with other countries?
Why do some countries emit more CO2 than others?
Per capita Carbon Emissions
5
Carbon Emissions and Electricity
Carbon Emission Factor in Electricity Generation
1200
gms CO2 / kWh
1000
Developing
EU
Oil Exporting
Other OECD
800
UK
600
France
400
200
•
•
Coal ~ 900 - 1000 g / kWh
Oil ~ 800 – 900 g/kWh
•
Gas (CCGT)
~ 400 - 430 kg/kWh
•
Nuclear
~
Current UK mix ~ 530 g/kWh
5 – 20 g/kWh
Poland
India
Australia
Libya
China
Italy
Czech Republic
USA
Denmark
Portugal
Germany
UK
Netherlands
Japan
Spain
UAE
Qatar
Luxembourg
Belgium
Austria
France
Sweden
Switzerland
Norway
0
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Electricity Generation i n selected Countries
coal
USA
oil
Japan
UK
gas
nuclear
hydro
Germany
France
Poland
India
Sweden
China
Norway
other
renewables
Russia
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Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Non-Renewable Methods
Gas CCGT
nuclear fission
(long term)
Potential contribution to electricity supply in
2020 and drivers/barriers/costs
Energy
Review
2002
Available now (but gas
0 - 80% (at present 45is running out –
imported prices much
50%)
higher)
~2p +
New
Predictions
9th May
2011 (*)
8.0p
[5 - 11]
0 - 15% (France 80%) - new inherently safe
(currently 18% and
designs - some
2.5 - 3.5p
falling)
development needed
7.75p
[5.5 - 10]
Installed Capacity (MW)
notisavailable
earliest
Nuclearfusion
New Build assumes
one new station
completeduntil
each2040
year at
after
2020.not until
nuclear
unavailable
2050 for significant impact
14000
New Build ?
[7.5 - 15]p Available now: Not
Coal currently ~40% but viable without Carbon
unlikely
"Clean10000
Coal"
2.5
3.5p
Actual to fall
scheduled
Capture &
before 2025
8000
Sequestration
12000
Projected
?
6000
Carbon sequestration either by burying it or using methanolisation to create a new
4000
transport
fuel will not be available at scale required until mid 2020s so cannot help
short term.
2000
0
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
* Energy Review 2011 – Climate Change Committee May 2009
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Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Renewable
Potential contribution to electricity supply
in 2020 and drivers/barriers
On Shore Wind
~25% [~15000 x 3
available now for
MW turbines] commercial exploitation
2002
(Gas ~ 2p)
Predictions
May 2011
(Gas ~ 8.0p) *
~ 2+p
~8.2p
+/- 0.8p
1.5MW Turbine
At peak output provides sufficient electricity for
3000 homes
On average has provided electricity for 700 –
850 homes depending on year
Future prices from
* Renewable Energy Review – 9th May 2011
Climate Change Committee
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Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Renewable
Potential contribution to electricity supply in
2020 and drivers/barriers
~25% [~15000 x 3
available now for
MW turbines] commercial exploitation
some technical
Off Shore Wind
development needed to
25 - 50%
reduce costs.
On Shore Wind
2002
(Gas ~ 2p)
Predictions
May 2011
(Gas ~ 8.0p) *
~ 2+p
~8.2p
+/- 0.8p
~2.5 - 3p
12.5p +/- 2.5
Climate Change Committee (9th May 2011) see offshore wind as
being very expensive and recommends reducing planned
expansion by 3 GW and increasing onshore wind by same amount
Scroby Sands has a Load factor of 28.8% - 30% but
nevertheless produced sufficient electricity on average for
2/3rds of demand of houses in Norwich. At Peak time
sufficient for all houses in Norwich and Ipswich
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Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Renewable
Potential contribution to electricity supply in
2020 and drivers/barriers
~25% [~15000 x 3
available now for
MW turbines] commercial exploitation
some technical
Off Shore Wind
development needed to
25 - 50%
reduce costs.
On Shore Wind
2002
(Gas ~ 2p)
Predictions
May 2011
(Gas ~ 8.0p) *
~ 2+p
~8.2p
+/- 0.8p
~2.5 - 3p
12.5p +/- 2.5
Micro Hydro Scheme operating
on Siphon Principle installed at
Itteringham Mill, Norfolk.
Rated capacity 5.5 kW
Hydro (mini micro)
5%
technically mature, but
limited potential
2.5 - 3p
Future prices from Climate Change Report (May 2011) or RO/FITs where not
otherwise specified
11p for
<2MW
projects
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Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Renewable
Potential contribution to electricity supply in
2020 and drivers/barriers
2002
(Gas ~ 2p)
~25%
[~15000
x 3 that
available
now
for might be
Climate
Change
Report
suggests
1.6 TWh
(0.4%)
~ 2+p
On Shore
Wind
MW
turbines]
commercial
exploitation
achieved by 2020 which is equivalent to ~ 2.0 GW.
some technical
Off Shore Wind
development needed to ~2.5 - 3p
25 - 50%
reduce costs.
Hydro (mini micro)
Photovoltaic
5%
technically mature, but
limited potential
<<5% even
available, but much further
assuming 10 GW of research needed to bring down
installation
costs significantly
Predictions
May 2011
(Gas ~ 8.0p) *
~8.2p
+/- 0.8p
12.5p +/- 2.5
2.5 - 3p
11p for
<2MW
projects
15+ p
25p +/-8
Future prices from Climate Change Report (May 2011) or RO/FITs where not
otherwise specified
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Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Renewable
Potential contribution to electricity supply in
2020 and drivers/barriers
2002
(Gas ~ 2p)
Predictions
May 2011
(Gas ~ 8.0p) *
~ 2+p
~8.2p
+/- 0.8p
~2.5 - 3p
12.5p +/- 2.5
technically mature, but
limited potential
2.5 - 3p
11p for
<2MW
projects
available, but much further
research needed to bring
down costs significantly
15+ p
25p +/-8
2.5 - 4p
7 - 13p
depending on
technology
~25% [~15000 x 3
available now for
MW turbines] commercial exploitation
some technical
Off Shore Wind
development needed to
25 - 50%
reduce costs.
On Shore Wind
Hydro (mini micro)
Photovoltaic
Sewage, Landfill,
Energy Crops/
Biomass/Biogas
5%
<<5% even assuming
10 GW of installation
??5%
available, but research needed
in some areas e.g. advanced
gasification
To provide 5% of UK electricity needs will require an area the size of Norfolk and
Suffolk devoted solely to biomass
Future prices from Climate Change Report (May 2011) or RO/FITs where not otherwise specified
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Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Renewable
Potential contribution to electricity supply in 2020 and
Predictions
2002 (Gas
drivers/barriers
May 2011
~ 2p)
(Gas ~ 8.0p)
On Shore Wind
~25%
available now
~8.2p +/- 0.8p
~ 2+p
Off Shore
available but costly
25 - 50%
~2.5 - 3p 12.5p +/- 2.5
Wind
11p for
Small Hydro
5%
limited potential
2.5 - 3p
<2MW
projects
available, but very
Photovoltaic
<<5%
15+ p
25p +/-8
costly
available, but research
Biomass
??5%
2.5 - 4p
7 - 13p
needed
currently < 10
technology limited Wave/Tidal MW may be 1000
major development not
Stream
- 2000 MW
before 2020
(~0.1%)
4 - 8p
Future prices from Climate Change Report (May 2011) or RO/FITs where not
otherwise specified
19p +/- 6
Tidal 26.5p
+/- 7.5p Wave
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Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Renewable
Potential contribution to electricity supply in 2020 and
Predictions
2002 (Gas
drivers/barriers
May 2011
~ 2p)
(Gas ~ 8.0p)
On Shore Wind
~25%
available now
~8.2p +/- 0.8p
~ 2+p
Off Shore
available but costly
25 - 50%
~2.5 - 3p 12.5p +/- 2.5
Wind
11p for
Small Hydro
5%
limited potential
2.5 - 3p
<2MW
projects
available, but very
Photovoltaic
<<5%
15+ p
25p +/-8
costly
available, but research
Biomass
??5%
2.5 - 4p
7 - 13p
needed
currently < 10
techology limited Wave/Tidal MW may be 1000
major development not
Stream
- 2000 MW
before 2020
(~0.1%)
4 - 8p
Future prices from Climate Change Report (May 2011) or RO/FITs where not
otherwise specified
19p +/- 6
Tidal 26.5p
+/- 7.5p Wave
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Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Renewable
Potential contribution to electricity supply in 2020 and
Predictions
2002 (Gas
drivers/barriers
May 2011
~ 2p)
(Gas ~ 8.0p)
On Shore Wind
~25%
availableSevern
now Barrage/
~8.2p
+/- 0.8p
Mersey
Barrages
~ 2+p
Off Shore
available buthave
costlybeen considered frequently
25 - 50%
~2.5 - 3p 12.5p +/- 2.5
Wind
e.g. pre war – 1970s, 2009
11p 5-8%
for
Severn Barrage could provide
Small Hydro
5%
limited potentialof UK electricity
2.5 - 3p needs
<2MW
projects
In Orkney – Churchill Barriers
available, but very
Photovoltaic
<<5%
p per annum
25p +/-8Output ~80 00015+
GWh
costly
Sufficient for 13500 houses in
available, but
research
Orkney
but there
in
Biomass
??5%
2.5 - are
4p only 4000
7 - 13p
needed
Orkney. Controversy in bringing
currently < 10
technologycables
limitedsouth.
19p +/- 6
Wave/Tidal MW may be 1000
major development
not
4 - 8p tonnes
Tidal
26.5p
Would
save 40000
of CO
2
Stream
- 2000 MW
before 2020
+/- 7.5p Wave
(~0.1%)
technology available but unlikely for
2020. Construction time ~10 years.
Tidal Barrages
5 - 15%
26p +/-5
In 2010 Government abandoned
plans for development
Future prices from Climate Change Report (May 2011) or RO/FITs where not
otherwise specified
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Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Renewable
Potential contribution to electricity supply in 2020 and
Predictions
2002 (Gas
drivers/barriers
May 2011
~ 2p)
(Gas ~ 8.0p)
On Shore
~25%
available now
~8.2p +/- 0.8p
~ 2+p
Wind
Off Shore
available but costly
25 - 50%
~2.5 - 3p 12.5p +/- 2.5
Wind
11p for
Small Hydro
5%
limited potential
2.5 - 3p
<2MW
available, but very
Photovoltaic
<<5%
15+ p
25p +/-8
costly
available, but research
Biomass
??5%
2.5 - 4p
7 - 13p
needed
currently < 10 MW technology limited Wave/Tidal
19p Tidal
??1000 - 2000 MW major development not
4 - 8p
Stream
26.5p Wave
(~0.1%)
before 2020
Tidal Barrages
Geothermal
In 2010 Government abandoned
26p +/-5
plans for development
unlikely for electricity generation before 2050 if then -not to be
confused with ground sourced heat pumps which consume electricity
5 - 15%
Future prices from Climate Change Report (May 2011) or RO/FITs where not
otherwise specified
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Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Renewable
Potential contribution to electricity supply in 2020 and
Predictions
2002
drivers/barriers
May 2011
(Gas ~ 2p)
(Gas ~ 8.0p)
On Shore Wind
~25%
available now
~ 2+p ~8.2p +/- 0.8p
Off Shore Wind
available but costly
25 - 50%
~2.5 - 3p 12.5p +/- 2.5
Small Hydro
Photovoltaic
Biomass
Wave/Tidal
Stream
Tidal Barrages
Geothermal
5%
limited potential
available, but very
costly
available, but research
??5%
needed
currently < 10 MW technology limited ??1000 - 2000 MW major development not
(~0.1%)
before 2020
<<5%
5 - 15%
2.5 - 3p
11p for
<2MW
15+ p
25p +/-8
2.5 - 4p
7 - 13p
4 - 8p
19p Tidal
26.5p Wave
In 2010 Government abandoned
plans for development
26p +/-5
unlikely for electricity generation before 2050 if then -not to be
confused with ground sourced heat pumps which consume electricity
Demonstrates importance of on shore wind for next decade or so
Future prices from Climate Change Report (May 2011) or RO/FITs where not otherwise specified
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Our Choices: They are difficult
Do we want to exploit available renewables i.e onshore/offshore wind
and biomass?.
Photovoltaics, tidal, wave are not options for next 10 - 20 years.
[very expensive or technically immature or both]
If our answer is NO
Do we want to see a renewal of nuclear power ?
Are we happy with this and the other attendant risks?
If our answer is NO
Do we want to return to using coal?
• then carbon dioxide emissions will rise significantly
• unless we can develop carbon sequestration within 10 years
UNLIKELY – confirmed by Climate Change Committee
[9th May 2011]
If our answer to coal is NO
Do we want to leave things are they are and see continued
exploitation of gas for both heating and electricity generation?
>>>>>>
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Our Choices: They are difficult
If our answer is YES
By 2020
• we will be dependent on GAS
for around 70% of our heating and electricity
imported from countries like Russia, Iran, Iraq, Libya, Algeria
Are we happy with this prospect? >>>>>>
If not:
We need even more substantial cuts in energy use.
Or are we prepared to sacrifice our future to effects of Global
Warming? - the North Norfolk Coal Field?
Do we wish to reconsider our stance on renewables?
Inaction or delays in decision making will lead us down the GAS
option route and all the attendant Security issues that raises.
We must take a coherent integrated approach in our decision making –
not merely be against one technology or another
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Our looming over-dependence on gas for electricity generation
600
500
TWh
400
• 1 new nuclear station completed each year after 2020.
• 1 new coal station fitted with CCS each year after 2020
• 1 million homes fitted with PV each year from 2020
- 40% of homes fitted by 2030
• 19 GW of onshore wind by 2030 cf 4 GW now
UK Gas
300
Imported
Gas
Offshore Wind
Onshore Wind
200
Oil
Other
Renewables
Existing Coal
New Coal
100
New Nuclear
0
Existing Nuclear
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Imported gas
Other Renewables
new nuclear
UK gas
oil
Nuclear
offshore wind
new coal CCS
Demand
onshore wind
coal
Data for modelling derived from DECC & Climate Change Committee (2011) - allowing
for significant deployment of electric vehicles and heat pumps by 2030.
Conclusions: A Strategy for Future Sustainable Energy Supply
• Will require:
• Effective Awareness and Energy Management;
• Improved Technology to make better use of existing energy;
• Low Carbon Energy Supply – including:
– Cost effective and technically mature renewables
– Nuclear (?)
– Carbon Capture and Sequestration – but this will not be available until
mid 2020s on scale require.
• Only On Shore Wind (??? Some biomass) will be cost effective solutions
for renewable energy until at least 2020
• Large Scale Wind is often meeting stiff opposition from planning issues
– many of which are red-herrings
• Innovation solutions for both financing and minimising planning are an
effective way forward
e.g. The approach taken by WindCrop
Effective additional cost for electricity generated by Wind Crop Wind
Turbines is only 60% of extra cost of electricity from domestic PV.
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Finally!
Lao Tzu (604-531 BC) Chinese Artist and Taoist philosopher
"If you do not change direction, you may end up where
you are heading."
http://www.cred-uk.org
[email protected]
follow Academic Resources Link
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