Transcript and risk - The Association of State Floodplain Managers

1993
> $20 Billion
2005
> $100 Billion
2008
> $15 Billion
> $25 Billion
2008
What’s Wrong
with These
Pictures?
Floods are an act of
God; flood damages
result from acts of
men.
House Document 465, 89th Congress, 2d Session:
A Unified National Program for Managing Flood Losses, August
1966
Floodproofing in a 21st Century
Flood Risk Management Context
November 2008
New Orleans, La
Gerald E. Galloway, Jr., PE, PhD
Past-President, American Water Resources Association
Water Policy Collaborative, University of Maryland
Visiting Scholar, US Army Corps of Engineers
Caution
THE SPEAKER DOES NOT REPRESENT
ANYONE OR ANY AGENCY.
THE OPINIONS EXPRESSED ARE HIS
OWN AND DO NOT REFLECT,
NECESSARILY, THE POSITIONS OF THE
AWRA, THE UNIVERSITY OF
MARYLAND, THE ARMY CORPS OF
ENGINEERS OR ANYONE ELSE.
Floods Were Part of Early North American
History
And People Tried to Deal with the Flood Challenge
STRUGGLE!
Then, A Major Flood Occurred in 1927…
And Got Our Attention
And Again in 1936
Lowell
Pittsburgh
Early Guidance on
Floods
Flood Control Act of 1936 - The Nation
•…destructive floods upon the rivers...constitute
a menace to national welfare; it is the sense of
Congress that flood control is a proper activity
of the Federal Government
People
Keep the Water Away!
And Flood Protection Was Extended Across
the Nation
FLOOD
CONTROL!
But Flood Damages Continued to Grow –
1993
And Some Had Other Ideas
The Birth of Floodplain Management
Gilbert White
Jim Goddard
1953 -TVA Floodplain Management
 1960 - Corps Floodplain Management
Services

Thinking in Broader Terms
• Senate Select Committee on Water
Resources
• Water Resources Planning Act of 1965
– Water Resources Council
– Principles and Standards
National Flood Insurance Program
– Established in 1968
– Led to National Flood Hazard Mapping Program
– Mandatory Purchase Provisions in 1973
White House Floodplain
Management Review
Committee
1993-1994
• Determine Causes of '93 Flood
• Evaluate Floodplain Management Programs
• Recommend Changes in Policies Programs and
Procedures
THE FLOOD OF 1993
• Flood Was Significant Hydrometeorologic
Event
• Major Floods Will Continue to Occur
• People and Property Are at Risk in
the Floodplain
– Most Floodplain Residents Don’t
Understand the Hazard
– Many Structures Unnecessarily Located
in Floodplain
• ….and It Isn’t Going to Get Any Better
– Increased Development/Growth
– Climate Change/Climate Variability
– Uncertainty
The Flood Control Infrastructure Has
Provided Protection to Millions
But It and Other Human Activity Caused
Significant Environmental Degradation
WHAT NEEDS TO BE DONE
• Share Responsibility and Costs for
Floodplain Management Among Federal,
State, and Local Governments and
Impacted Populace
• Avoid Use of Floodplain: Don't Develop Where
You Don't Need To – Zoning - Codes
• Minimize Damages to Development that
Does Occur and Has Occurred
– Hold the Water Where It Falls
• Minimize Damages to Development
that Does Occur and Has Occurred
– Floodproof
• Minimize Damages to Development
that Does Occur and Has Occurred
– Relocate Endangered Structures
– Acquire Marginal Lands
• Minimize Damages to Development
that Does Occur and Has Occurred
– Use Levees/Floodwalls, When Justified
• Mitigate Damages that Will Occur
– Establish Early Warning Systems
– Insure Those at Risk
– Educate Present and Potential
Floodplain Occupants
FLOOD
DAMAGE
REDUCTION!
US Water Challenges
Houston, We Have a Flood Challenge
• 72 Years of Flood Control
• 40 Years of Flood Insurance
• Increasing Flood Damages
• Average annual losses $6 Billion (BK)
• Inadequate Protection
• Inadequate Maintenance
Risk!
Risk Perceptions and
Risk Comparisons
If risk “a” is less than risk
Threat to That
“b,”Which We Value
Covello
and risk “a” is
acceptable,
then risk “b” should also
be acceptable
Risk
A
RISK =
• Probability of Hazard Occurring
• Probability that Protection Will
Work
• Consequences of Bad Event
Occurring
Why Doesn’t Anyone Seem to
Understand Risk?
We Lead People to Believe They Were Safe
• The Assumption Is “Protection”
• We Don’t Talk About or Prepare for Disaster
We Don’t Communicate Residual Risk
There is no such thing as complete protection
• Things Do Go Wrong
and Consequences
Can Be Estimated
• No Incentive or
Requirement to Cover
This Risk
• Exposure is Federal
Government’s
The Nation Moves to
Flood Risk Management
Risk
Risk Mgmt
Tools
(Cumulative)
Zoning –Codes-Relocation
(Natural) Storage
Floodproofing
Evacuation Plans Commo
Structural
Education
INITIAL RISK
Insurance
RESIDUAL RISK
How
Determined?
The 21st Century
•
•
•
•
•
Population Explosion
Pressures for Development
Scarce Resources
Climate Change
Volatile, Uncertain, Complex, Ambiguous
National and World Situations
The Floodplain of 2050
• Floodprone construction rarely occurs.
• New development has no adverse impact on flood
levels
• Natural and beneficial functions of floodplains are
protected
• Risk communication has become advanced enough
that local decision-making is well informed.
• Policy decisions about the use of land and water
resources are based on sound data, science, and
models.
Association of State Floodplain Managers Foundation, 2008
www.floods.org
What Must WE Do?
• Educate the Public
• Floods Will Continue to Occur
• Residual Risk Is Real
• Nonstrucutral Approaches Lead to a Better
Future
• Fewer Damages
• Protection of Natural and Beneficial Functions
• Become Involved in the Decision Process
• Politically/Institutionally
• Start Working on the Future -Today
…the human race is a
family that has inherited a
place on the earth in
common … its members
have an obligation to work
toward sharing it so that
none is deprived of the
elementary needs for life,
and …all have a
responsibility to leave it
undegraded for those who
follow.
Gilbert F. White 1975