Transcript Methodologies for, Approaches to, and Frameworks of

Methodologies for, Approaches
to, and Frameworks of,
Vulnerability and Adaptation
Assessments
Dr Isabelle NIANG-DIOP
University of Dakar (SENEGAL)
UNFCCC Workshop on the preparation of
national communications of NAI Parties,
Manila, 25-30 april 2004
What do we mean by…..?
 Just ways to produce V&A studies
 The main methodologies/frameworks
The « first generation »: IPCC guidelines 1994
CGE work; synthesis of first V&A studies ; weakness of
adaptation strategies
The « second generation »: 2002-2003
– the Adaptation Policy Framework; « adaptation oriented »
– The NAPAs
– Uncertainty-Risk decision making tools : the UKCIP
methodology
UNFCCC Workshop on the preparation of national communications of NAI Parties, Manila, 25-30 april 2004
The IPCC Technical Guidelines
(Carter et al., 1994)
1
Define problem
2
Select method
3
Test method/sensitivity
4
Select scenarios
5
Assess impacts
6
Assess autonomous adjustments
7
Evaluate adaptation strategies
UNFCCC Workshop on the preparation of national communications of NAI Parties, Manila, 25-30 april 2004
The IPCC Guidelines

Step 1: Define the problem
Goals of the assessment
Exposure units to be studied (sectors, ecosystems,..)
Study area (administrative, geographical, ecological units, …)
Time frame (time horizons)
Data needs : identify data requirements (type, source, quantity,
quality,…)
The context of the study: political, economic, global changes,
etc.

Step 2: Select the method
UNFCCC Workshop on the preparation of national communications of NAI Parties, Manila, 25-30 april 2004
The IPCC Guidelines

Step 2: Select the method
Experimentation
Models : biophysical, economic, integrated
Analogues : historical, geographical
Expert judgement
Step 3: Test the method
 Step 4: Select the scenarios

The baselines: climatological, environmental, socio-economic
The scenarios : mainly climate change scenarios (MAGICCSCENGEN), environmental and socio-economic projections
UNFCCC Workshop on the preparation of national communications of NAI Parties, Manila, 25-30 april 2004
The IPCC Guidelines
 Step 5: Assess the impacts
Qualitative assessments
The use of models (CERES, Bruun rule, WATBAL,
Holdride)
Economic impacts : cost benefit analysis
 Step 6: Assess autonomous adjustments
 Step 7: Evaluate adaptation strategies
The seven steps approach
UNFCCC Workshop on the preparation of national communications of NAI Parties, Manila, 25-30 april 2004
Evaluation of adaptation strategies
1
Define objectives
2
Specify important impacts
3
Identify adaptation options
4
Examine constraints
5
Quantify measures/formulate alternative
strategies
6
Weight objectives/evaluate trade-offs
7
Recommend adaptation measures
UNFCCC Workshop on the preparation of national communications of NAI Parties, Manila, 25-30 april 2004
The IPCC methodology
 A number of derived methodologies
The USCSP
The UNEP Handbook
 Applied in a number of V&A studies, and
particularly in the Initial National
Communications of Non Annex I Countries
UNFCCC Workshop on the preparation of national communications of NAI Parties, Manila, 25-30 april 2004
Other approaches
 The small islands approach, especially in the
Pacific: sparsity of data, the importance of
traditional knowledge
The vulnerability-resilience approach (Kay et al.,
1993) applied in the coastal zone. The coastal zone
was considered to be made of hard and soft
systems. Vulnerability was ranked from –3 to 0 and
resilience from 0 to +3. The difference between the
two being called the Sustainable Capacity Index
UNFCCC Workshop on the preparation of national communications of NAI Parties, Manila, 25-30 april 2004
A rapid evolution
 The CGE work based on synthesis and analysis
of V&A studies
 The growing recognition of the importance of
adaptation for NAI countries
 A context of more frequent extreme events
 First recognition of the need to integrate
adaptation strategies into planning development
 Greater exchange with other communities:
disaster, risk and uncertainty managers
UNFCCC Workshop on the preparation of national communications of NAI Parties, Manila, 25-30 april 2004
As a result
 The new guidelines for the preparation of
national communications of Non Annex I Parties
http://unfccc.int/resource/userman_nc.pdf
 A number of new methodologies, approaches,
frameworks: the so-called « second generation »
methodologies
The Adaptation Policy Framework (APF)
The National Adaptation Programmes of Actions
The UKCIP « Climate change risk-uncertaintydecision making framework
UNFCCC Workshop on the preparation of national communications of NAI Parties, Manila, 25-30 april 2004
The second generation
methodologies : What’s new ?
 Less prescriptive
 Better centered on adaptation
 Consider adaptation in the development context
 Include stakeholders participation
 Take into consideration current as well as future
vulnerability
UNFCCC Workshop on the preparation of national communications of NAI Parties, Manila, 25-30 april 2004
The Adaptation Policy Framework
Developed by an interdisciplinary team under UNDP
 Propose practical guidance to develop an
adaptation strategy for climate change
 Based on a 5 steps approach
 Supported by 9 Technical Papers
 With a User’s Guidebook already available (2003)
 http://www.undp.org/cc/apf_outline.htm

UNFCCC Workshop on the preparation of national communications of NAI Parties, Manila, 25-30 april 2004
The Adaptation Policy Framework
UNFCCC Workshop on the preparation of national communications of NAI Parties, Manila, 25-30 april 2004
The NAPAs
 The objective is to develop action programmes
adressing the current and urgent needs of
LDCs in adaptation to climate change
 Annotated Guidelines for the Preparation of
National Adaptation Programmes of Action
(2002)
 http://unfccc.int/text/program/sd/ldc/documents/a
nnguide.pdf
UNFCCC Workshop on the preparation of national communications of NAI Parties, Manila, 25-30 april 2004
Set up the teams
Synthesis
Participative evaluation
of current vulnerability
Public consultation to identify
potential adaptation actions
Define criteria
Design projects
Prioritization of
actions
Submission and
dissemination
UNFCCC Workshop on the preparation of national communications of NAI Parties, Manila, 25-30 april 2004
The UKCIP method: CC risk,
uncertainty and decision-making
framework
 The main objectives are to allow decision
makers to
Take in account risk and uncertainty associated
with climate variability and future climate change
Identify good adaptation options, in particular no
regret options
 Framework in 8 stages
 http://www.ukcip.org.uk/risk_uncert/risk_uncert.h
tml
UNFCCC Workshop on the preparation of national communications of NAI Parties, Manila, 25-30 april 2004
Identify problem
Define decisionmaking criteria
Monitor
Assess risks
Implement
decision
Appraise options
No
Identify options
No
Yes
Problem
definition? Yes
Criteria
met?
Make decision
UNFCCC Workshop on the preparation of national communications of NAI Parties, Manila, 25-30 april 2004
New/improved tools
 Regional climate change scenarios
 The AIACC project
 Vulnerability indices
 Improved models
 New sectors emerged (health for example)
UNFCCC Workshop on the preparation of national communications of NAI Parties, Manila, 25-30 april 2004
You want more?
 Look at the « Compendium on methods and
tools to evaluate impacts of, vulnerability and
adaptation to climate change »
 http://unfccc.int/program/mis/meth
UNFCCC Workshop on the preparation of national communications of NAI Parties, Manila, 25-30 april 2004
Thanks for your attention !
UNFCCC Workshop on the preparation of national communications of NAI Parties, Manila, 25-30 april 2004