Transcript Presentation

Agriculture, Poverty Climate Change
Strategy and Action
Md Shamsuddoha
On the Occasion of Celebrating 25 Years of PKSF
Presentation Outline
1
Poverty &
Agriculture
2
Climate Change Implication
in Agriculture Sector and
Food Security
3
Other Challenges
4
Future Strategies
Poverty Reduction:
The Development Priority
 Well-known from various national official document
- Poverty reduction through higher growth and
employment is the key goal
 Poverty incidence fallen over time but is about 3335% i.e., at least 50 mn suffering from hunger and
food insecurity
 Poverty fall slow due to still low rate of growth – >
6% for several years now, but still far short of at
least 8-9% necessary for fast poverty reduction
expected employment generation
Agriculture in Growth and
Development
Share in GDP in 20011/12 only 20-21 % - fallen
from 25-26% in 2000/01; More than half of labour
force still in agriculture
Value addition was Tk 68 thousand crore in 08/09
More than one half of agricultural value added
from crop cultivation
Paddy main crop: value added 63% of all crops –
next important crop is potato
Growth in agriculture
compared to other sectors (’97 – ’08)
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
P
GD
s
ce
rvi
Se
tr y
us
In d
g
nin
Mi
s
rie
he
Fis
try
r es
Fo
k
to c
es
Li v
s
op
Cr
re
ltu
u
ric
Ag
Ag rate
depends on
crop growth
rate
8
Annual rate of growth (%)
Ag and its
sub-sectors
showed
lower rates
of growth
than other
sectors
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
-2
-4
Fishery
Forestry
Livestock
Crops
Agriculture
14
-6
1
9*
-0
08
20
8
-0
07
20
7
-0
06
20
6
-0
05
20
5
-0
04
20
4
-0
03
20
3
00
-2
02
20
2
-0
01
20
00
20
-0
00
20
99
99
98
Crops particularly showed
more volatility
Percent change over prev year
Fluctuations in Growth Rates
6
Nature of rice cultivation 1
Aman-ac
Boro-ac
30
25
Mn acres
20
15
10
5
0
2007-08
2005-06
2003-04
2001-02
1999-00
1997-98
1995-96
1993-94
1991-92
1989-90
1987-88
1985-86
1983-84
1981-82
1979-80
1977-78
Increasing
dominance of
dry period,
irrigated boro
at expense of
aus –
stagnant
position of
aman in rice
area
Aus-ac
7
Volatility of rice output
Total-p
Aman-p
Boro-p
30
20
10
0
-10
-20
8
2008-09
2006-07
2004-05
2002-03
2000-01
1998-99
1996-97
1994-95
1992-93
1990-91
1988-89
1986-87
1984-85
1982-83
1980-81
1978-79
Both aman and
boro output
volatile – but
weatherdependent aman
shows neg
changes while
boro’s are
positive changes
Percent change year on year
40
Contribution of Potato
Output
1200
7000
1000
6000
800
5000
4000
600
3000
400
200
0
2000
1000
0
Th mt
Th acres
Acre
/09
08
20
/07
06
20
/05
04
20
/03
02
20
/01
00
20
/99
98
19
/97
96
19
/95
94
19
/93
92
19
/91
90
19
/89
88
19
/87
86
19
• Area and output
both have grown
• Stagnation during
eighties followed by
8-9% growth rate of
output since mid
1990s
• Second-most
important crop in
terms of value
added
Pattern and Type of Production
• Land alienation
for several
reasons incl nonag uses
6.5
6
5.5
5
4.5
4
3.5
3
6
/0
05
20
1
/0
00
20
6
/9
95
19
1
/9
90
19
8
/8
87
19
• Rising man-land
ratio
7
Persons per acre
• Mainly marginal
and small farm
based (88%)
Food Security Challenges in
Bangladesh
Persistent challenges
decreasing land,
environmental (soil) degradation,
increasing population,
household level food insecurity,
widening consumption & income inequality
Challenges
Crop Production and Food Security
Emerging challenges
Climate change impacts
Salinity increase and submergence in the south and
south-west
• Uneven temperature stresses and rain fall
• Drought in the north and north-west
• Increased frequency/intensity of natural disasters
World food market volatility/uncertainty & Global
Recession
Impacts of climate change:
Broader Scenario
Climate Change Impacts:
Broader Scenario
Average temperature changed
Frequency and intensity of natural disasters increased
Salinity intrusion increased
Decline of precipitation resulted droughts
Extinction of plant and animal species- loss of
biodiversity
Sea-level rise by one meter in the current century, likely
to:
one third of the country’s land under threat of salt
water inundation; loss of livelihoods of 40 million
people; 20 million might need relocation by 2050
Surface Temp
Increased
25 years trend:
storms in a
CYCLONE Frequency
Previously, we faced 5.48
year now 7.94 storms in a
year
Number of hot
and rainy days
Increased
Salinity
Intrusion
Sea level rise will cause salinity
intrusion through rivers and estuaries
In the rainy season saline water ingress
to 10 % of country’s area, in the dry
season it reaches to 40 %area even
Salinity
Intrusion
Figure shows
that 0.5 meter
sea level rise
will cause
saline water
intrusion in
many fresh
water areas
Sea Level Rise and Changes in Precipitation
Year
Sea Level Temperate Rise
Rise (cm) ( oC )
% of Changes in
precipitation
( base 1990)
2030
30
0.7 and 1.3 rises
respectively in
monsoon and
winter
3% less in winter
and 11 percent
more in monsoon
2050
50
1.1 and 1.3 rises
respectively in
monsoon and
winter
37% less in winter
and 28 percent
more in monsoon
Increased of Disaster Prevalence: CYCLONE
Decade-wise occurrence of cyclonic storms and the number of
population affected in Bangladesh, 1901-2007
Total occurrence
Population affected (million)
Expon. (Total occurrence)
60
48
50
40
30
20
10
29
25
3
2
3
1
3
17
18
5
0
1901-
1911-
1921-
1931-
1941-
1951-
1961-
1971-
1981-
1991-
2000-
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
00
07
Increased Prevalence of Disasters
Slow Onset
Sudden Onset
Dense Fog
Erratic Rainfall
Drought
Excess Rainfall
Salinity Ingress
Monsoon Flood
River Erosion
Strom and Hail
Tidal Flood
Tropical Cyclone
Loss and Damage: New issue of debate
Mitigation
Mitigation
Finance
Adaptation
Technolo
gy
Capacity
Building
Adaptation
L nD
Addressing LnD
CC Impacts on Major Sector: Agriculture
• Crop:
– Rice production from 2.71% in 2005 to 2.5% by 2050
– Yield reduction: IPCC, 2007: 32% wheat, 8% rice;
Basak, 2010: 1.5%, 2.5%, 4.4% and 5.4% for 2020,
2030, 2040 and 2050 respectively;
Dasgupta.S, 2011: 10-year return period cyclone would
damage 50 percent of yield, resulting in US$788.83
million of additional damage caused by climate change
by 2050
• Fish: affect physiology and behavior, alter the growth rate,
development, reproductive capacity, migration
• Livestock: Affect feed and fodder production/stock
CC Impacts on Major Sector: Agriculture
• Loss of Agri-GDP/ Economic loss:
– Direct annual cost to the national economy of
disasters in the last 10 years estimated to be
[damage and loss of production] 0.5 and 1.0 % of
GDP
– Agricultural GDP is projected to be 3.1 percent lower
each year ($36 billion in lost value-added) and
total GDP $129 billion lower due to climate change
over the 45-year period 2005–50, WB (2008)
CC impact on potato
• Generally thought to be +ve in temperate climate
due longer growing period, although planting date
may be advanced by about 2 weeks
• In India, studies indicate opposite – 3-14% decline
are expected by 2020 and 2050
• Date of planting due to higher temperature may
have to be asvanced or delayed depending on
location and agro-ecology
• Pest attacks more likely with rising temperature
• In general adaptation demands more heat-tolerant
and pest-resistant varieties
Other Challenges
Food Security:
A Conceptual Framework
FOOD SECURITY
About food Production
Agenda of States and UN
Physical and economic
access
Promotes unfair trading
aid politics and dumping.
CONCEPT
market based FS
comparative advantage
in production
REFORM
liberalization of food
import market
Reducing State
Support
RESULT: weaken the
subsistence economy based
food security
Conceptual Framework:
Food Security:
FAO’s Committee on World
Food Security defined;
‘all people at all times have
both the physical and economic
access to the basic food they
need’.
Recognized three conditions ;
Adequacy of food supply
or availability,
Stability of supply
Access to food at the
HH level, and by the poor.
IT’S Doesn’t Consider------Local agricultural production
and production system.
Farmers right to produce
food and consumers rights to
consumption and purchase
The right of nations to protect
themselves from cheap
agricultural and food imports
(dumping).
Link agricultural prices to
production costs
Food price hiking and
State of Food Security in Crisis
Retail prices are up..... ( post cyclone SIRD prdiod during
2008-2009)
18 % in China,
17 % in Sri Lanka,
10 % & more through out the Lt America & Russia,
Around 20 percent in Bangladesh
Among the agricultural commodities;
Dairy products are as much as 200 %
Maize prices hit a 10 year high in Feb 2007,
Wheat is up 50 %, Rice 16 % and Poultry 10 %.
Causes of
Food Price Hiking
Theoretically the market economics says;
‘the price of any commodity rises when its supply
fall off or become uncertain,
Myth
technologies helped to increase global rice output
steadily from about 254 m tones in 1965 to 598 m tones in
2000.
This growth rate has been declining since 2000...............
indicating the need for additional support to increase the
productivity of rice
Causes of
lowering production
Shifting paradigm of
demand side
agri-commodities are
considering as the
potential raw materials
for bio-fuels
Myth: The fuel value of a
commodity exceeds its
value as food
the price of oil is setting
the price of food
Worryingly,
India to plant 140,000 sq km biofuel crops,
Brazil 1.2 m sq km.
S Africa 4 m sq km of land is
being touted as the future Middle
East of bio-fuels,
Indonesia to increase its palm oil
area from 64, 000 sq km now to
2.6 m sq km in 2050 for energy.
Causes of
lowering production
Shifting paradigm of
demand side
Grain for cattle feed is
increasing as globally
the number of meateaters is growing
Additional demand for
feed grain by 2020 will
be 350 to 450 million
tones-a 20 to 30
increase on global
present production.
Study Says;
In 12 Asian by 2020 consumption
will be increased......
beef by 50 %,
pork 30 %
chicken 40 % and
diary 55 %.
Feed Conversion Ratio;
Chicken, 2:1
Pork 4:1
Beef 7:1
Export Led Monoculture: Bangladesh
CONCERN
Export led Shrimp Monoculture and
Corporate Control on Farming System
Market Never
Considers the
Social &
Economical
Impact of Food
Production
Demand for shrimp increase 1- 5 % per year
Area under production is 200,000 ha
compared to 55500 ha in 1998
ecologically, socially and economically
destructive.
Disappearance of 21,020.45 acre mangrove
forest in Cox’s Bazaar .
Future Strategies
Future Strategies….
Strategic Multi-Sectoral Approach
More
progress in
agricultural
productivity
Translation of
achievements
in to higher
food security
Developing
infrastructures
and
Agricultural
Market
mechanisms
More investment to improve the availability
of food
More
intensified &
diversified
food
production
Increased
sustainability
Support adaptation activities to
face CC challenges
climate resilient
infrastructure
climate resilient
technologies and varieties
Bangladesh roadmap for addressing climate
change impact on food security
Food
security
area
AV
Progra
Title
mme
number
1
Sustainable and resilient agriculture
through integrated research and extension
AV/AC
2
Sustainable water management and
infrastructure for irrigation purposes
AV/AC
3
Adaption to climate change in the fisheries
and livestock sectors
AV/AC
4
Reducing vulnerability to natural disasters
and prices shocks: preparedness, early
warning and awareness
Bangladesh roadmap for addressing climate change
impact on food security
Food
security
area
AC
Progra
Title
mme
number
5
Livelihoods protection and promotion in
the context of climate change
AC
6
Climate change adaptive public food
operation and management system
U
7
U
8
Adaptation in health sector: community
action for malnutrition amidst climate
change
Water and sanitation programme in
climate vulnerable areas: control and
management of food safety and quality
Thank You All