Transcript GL_climate_lecture_2..

Confronting
Climate Change in
the Great Lakes
Region
Impacts and Solutions
for Great Lakes
Communities and
Ecosystems
http://www.ucsusa.org/greatlakes
Reports for California, Gulf Coast States, Great Lakes, Northeast U.S.
Available for download at:
http://www.climatechoices.org
http://www.ucsusa.org
Take Home
Messages:
1. Climate change is real, and
is changing the character
of the Great Lakes region
2. Climate change magnifies existing
environmental problems
3. Science-based, common-sense solutions
are available now
1. Evidence of Climate Change
in the Great Lakes Region
• Temperatures are rising, especially in
winter
• Extreme rainfall events are becoming more
frequent
• Winters are shorter
• Spring comes earlier
• Shorter duration of ice cover
on small and large lakes
especially
Plant Hardiness Zones have moved
1990 vs 2006
Extreme rainfall
events (24-hr
and 7-day) are
becoming more
frequent
Lake Mendota, Wisconsin
Ice Cover (Days)
180
142 Years (1856 - 1998)
150
1
Year
120
90
60
30
0
1850 1875 1900 1925 1950 1975 2000
From John Magnuson
Magnuson April 2001
Common
(but unusual)
events on
Lakes Mendota
and Monona
Winter of 2001-2002
Lake Mendota, Wisconsin
Ice Cover (Days)
180
142 Years (1856 - 1998)
150
10
Years
120
90
60
30
0
1850 1875 1900 1925 1950 1975 2000
J. Magnuson
Lake Mendota, Wisconsin
Ice Cover (Days)
180
J. Magnuson
142 Years (1856 - 1998) 50 Years
(1949 -1998)
150
120
90
60
Dynamics from
El Niño Years
30
0
1850 1875 1900
1925
1950
1975
2000
Lake Mendota, Wisconsin
Trend caused by Global Change
Ice Cover (Days)
180
142 Years (1856 - 1998)
150
120
90
60
30
Corresponds
Corresponds to
to ~1°C
~1°C inin Air
Air
Temperature
Temperature per
per 100
100 Years
Years
0
1850 1875 1900 1925 1950 1975 2000
J. Magnuson
Lakes and
Rivers are
Freezing Later,
and Thawing
Earlier
1 Nov
1 Dec
1 Jan
Freeze
1 Feb
(37 of the 39
time series are in
the direction of
warming)
1 Mar
1 Apr
Breakup
1 May
Modified from
J. Magnuson et al. 2000
for IPCC 2001
1 Jun
1840
1880
1920
1960
2000
Projected Climate Changes in
the Great Lakes Region by 2100
• Temperature
– Winter 5-12 °F (3-7 °C)
– Summer 5-20 °F (3-11 °C)
– Extreme heat more common
• Precipitation
– Winter, spring increasing
– Summer, fall decreasing – drier soils, more droughts
• More extreme events – storms, floods
• Ice cover decline will continue
• Boreal Forests likely to disappear in G.L. region
Climate Warming will Impact
the Future Weather we “Feel”
summers
The Changing Character of
Lakes, Streams, & Fish
• Cold-water fish will decline,
warm-water species move
north
• Summer “dead zones” and fish
kills will increase
• Greater susceptibility to
invasive species
• Water levels likely to decline
Gerald C.
Bucher
“Dead Zones”
& Fish Kills
will increase
Great Lakes Regional Production ~$2 Trillion
What is at risk?
(Tourism,
recreation)
Values in millions of $
2. Climate Change Impacts
Will Not Occur in a Vacuum
• Population is growing
• Increased urbanization & sprawl
• Landscape fragmentation
• Air and Water pollution
• Social challenges
• Geographic limits
Michigan Land Use,
1980
Built
Agriculture
Other
vegetation
Forest
Lake
Wetland
2001 Michigan Land
Resource Project
Michigan Land Use
Projections, 2040
Built
Agriculture
Other
vegetation
Forest
Lake
Wetland
2001 Michigan Land
Resource Project
Exacerbation of Existing Problems
Water Resources
• Small streams & wetlands likely
to dry up – loss of biodiversity
• Pressure to increase water
extraction from the Great Lakes
• Lake levels expected to decline
• Pollution from PCBs and heavy
metals will increase as more
dredging is required
Exacerbation of Existing Problems
Human Health
• Cold-related health problems
will decline while heatrelated morbidity and
mortality will increase
• Extreme heat more likely:
– 40+ days by 2100 >90°F (32 °C)
– 25+ days by 2100 >97°F (36 °C)
• Higher ground-level ozone concentrations
• Waterborne and other infectious diseases
may become more frequent and widespread
Meeting the
Climate
Challenge
• Avoiding the
unmanageable
• Managing the
unavoidable
3. Worst Impacts Are Not Inevitable
No-regrets solutions available now
Three-pronged approach to deal with
climate change:
1. Reducing our emissions
2. Minimizing pressure
on the environment
3. Planning and preparing to manage the
impacts of a changing climate
Renewable Portfolio Standards
MN: Xcel 1250
MW by 2013
WI: 10%
by 2015
NY: 25%
by 2013
MT: 15%
by 2015
NV: 20%
by 2015
IA:
105 MW
IL: 8%
by 2013 †
CO: 10%
by 2015
ME: 30% by 2000
VT: equal to
load growth
2005 - 2012
MA: 4% New by 2009
RI: 16% by 2020
CT: 10% by 2010
NJ: 20% by 2020
PA: 18% by 2020
DE: 10% by 2019
MD: 7.5% by 2019
DC: 11% by 2022
CA: 33% by 2020
NM: 10%
AZ: 15% by 2011
by 2025
TX: 5,880 MW
by 2015
HI: 20% by 2020
Barry Rabe; PEW Center
†IL
implements its RPS through voluntary utility commitments
The projected costs of stabilizing atmospheric CO2 levels
are low in terms of Global Gross Domestic Product
We delay the time we
become 10 times richer
from 2100 to 2102
Global GDP
- Business as usual
75-90% reduction in GHG by 2100 costs 1-4% GDP; GDP
grows by 2-3%/yr; environmental benefits not included
Azar, C. and S.H. Schneider. 2002. Ecological Economics 42: 73–80.
Personal Solutions
• Be carbon conscious
• Look for the Energy Star label
• Choose clean power
• Unplug underused appliances
• Get a home energy audit
• Light bulbs matter
• Take the stairs
• Buy good wood
• Let policy makers know you are
concerned about global warming
Summary
• Climate change must be considered in
preserving the character of any locality
or region.
•
“Saving” the Great Lakes or the northern forests or the
rainforest requires both policy and management initiatives.
• Science tells us that the longer we wait, the larger the
negative impacts will be. Common sense solutions are
available now.
Take home point:
“Nothing happens in a vacuum…”