Transcript Side-Event - Choose Climate

COP9 Side-Event
Linking Article 2 & Article 6
Experiences from a role-play of future
climate negotiations with students from
UCL Belgium,
using the interactive Java Climate Model
Jean-Pascal van Ypersele, Ben Matthews
Micha Lauvau, François Beaumont, Philippe Marbaix,
Sebastian Izquierdo, Sophie De Coninck, Mikael Ange
Université catholique de Louvain, Louvain-la-Neuve, Belgium
Contact:
[email protected], [email protected]
Institut d'astronomie et de géophysique G.Lemaître,
www.climate.be
60 university students grouped in 17 delegations
(Belgium, Denmark, Russia, USA, Australia,
Saudi-Arabia, Venezuela, Brazil, Burkina-Faso, Marroco, Tuvalu,
India,
Greenpeace, GCC, FAO, WB/IMF, Empêcheurs)
had the task to agree by consensus:
* a quantitative interpretation of Article 2,
* an equitable formula for funding adaptation.
Such experiments help to implement Article 6
and may also highlight science and policy
questions
for future negotiations (our role-play was COP-11).
We will also discuss how to build on this
experience, involving groups around the world.
Article 6
Article 2
(Any effective global agreement requires
(Which dangerous climate impacts must we
informed participation by many citizens.
avoid, and with how much certainty? Hence,
How to involve more people into the global
what is a safe level of stabilisation to avoid
dialogue?)
these impacts?)
Article 2 involves risk/value judgements, many stakeholders should participate.
Negotiating mitigation and adaptation together helped to balance the North-South debate and
may help to encourage honesty about the scientific uncertainties.
●Using the same model, delegates could present very different cases by selecting parameters
and indicators.
●
What indicator should we limit - concentrations, global temperature, sea-level, rates of
change?
●
A target later in the chain shifts the burden of uncertainty from adaptation towards
mitigation.
●For both issues, various equity principles had to be considered (historical responsibility,
capacity to act, need for development, uneven regional distribution of impacts, rights to share
the atmosphere, etc.).
●Should the funding of adaptation be based on the polluter-pays principle,and how should
capacity to pay be balanced against sufficiency to handle impacts?
●The political compromises were a multi-criteria stabilisation target and a multi-source
adaptation fund that were challenging to interpret.
●
UN Framework Convention on Climate
Change
Ultimate objective (Article 2):
Such a level should be achieved
within a time frame sufficient
- to allow ecosystems to adapt
naturally to climate change,
- to ensure that food production is
not threatened and
- to enable economic development
to proceed in a sustainable manner.'
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(technologies, lifestyles,
policy instruments)
inverse calculation
'...stabilization of greenhouse gas
concentrations in the atmosphere at
a level that would prevent
dangerous anthropogenic
interference with the climate
system.
[email protected]
Emissions pathways
(biogeochemical cycles)
Critical Levels
(global temperature
/ radiative forcing)
Critical Limits
(regional climate changes)
Key Vulnerabilities
(socioeconomic factors)
jcm.chooseclimate.org
Article 2 needs global dialogue - Article 6
Risk/Value Judgements (including equity implications):
Impacts: Key Vulnerabilities?
Acceptable level of
Change?
Risk:
Target Indicator?
Acceptable Level of
Certainty?
(choice of target indicator shifts the burden of uncertainty)
Such risk/value decisions cannot be made by scientific experts
alone.
The ultimate “integrated assessment model” remains the global
network of human heads.
To reach effective global agreements, we need an iterative global dialogue
including
citizens / stakeholders.
The correctivejcm.chooseclimate.org
feedback process is
[email protected]
[email protected]
more important than the initial guess. So let's start this global debate!
Java Climate Model
jcm.chooseclimate.org
In preparing positions for the role-play, the students
used the Java Climate Model to explore options and
uncertainties.
By selecting parameters / indicators, same model can "justify" diverse
positions
Works in web browser, Instantly responding graphics,
Cause-effect from emissions to impacts,
Based on IPCC-TAR methods / data,
Flexible stabilisation scenarios
Regional distributions of responsibility and climate.
Transparent, open-source code,
Interface in 10 languages, 50000 words documentation
Equity principles
• Common but differentiated responsabilities (Art 3.1)
• Burkina Faso
–
–
–
–
Consumption and production patterns
Development barriers
Impacts distribution
Per capita emissions
• NGOs
- G17, sustainable development
• Brasil
– Historical responsabilities,
– The Brasilian proposal
Stabilisation levels and uncertainties
• Europe
– Proposal of stabilisation level
• Saudi Arabia
– Scientific uncertainties
– Other GHGs and fuels
Impacts and Adaptation fund
• Europe
– Precaution principle (Art 3.3)
• Burkina Faso
– Impacts : drought and desertification
– Stabilisation & Adaptation Fund proposal
• Saudi Arabia
– Drought and desertification
– Funding/responsibilities
– Allocation/dependent economies (art 4.10)
Impacts and Adaptation fund
• Europe
– Agreement on the adaptation fund
• Russia
– Regional impacts
– Funding proposal
• Tuvalu
– Low-lying coastal areas
– Refugees of climate (COP 12)
Conclusions of role-play
Equity implications were key aspect of discussion
Final compromise between Russia and Tuvalu (after US quit)
• Quantitative interpretation of Article 2:
+Temperature rise (<1.9°C 2100-1990)
+ Sea-level rise (46cm 2100-1990)
+ (Scientific inconsistency maybe realistic in policy compromises?)
• Principles for Adaptation funds :
+Tax on emissions trading
+ Percapita emissions & GDP formula
+ Principles sufficiency/capacity
Personal experiences
“After this simulation of international negotiations, we discovered the great inertia
and complexity that rule both the climatic and diplomatic systems, the latter maybe
harder to model than the former.
However we all felt that it was an original and exciting human experience”
Future development to global dialogue
Such web models might provide a quantative framework for a
global dialogue.
Could we combine such tools and experience to link groups from all corners
of the world?
JCM also used for teaching in several countries:
Univ Cath de Louvain (BE) Open University (UK),
Univ Bern (CH), Univ Washington (CA),...
Group distributed across web can share model by saving snapshots of model
parameters to pass to others in asynchronous web dialogue.
jcm.chooseclimate.org www.climate.be