Transcript Session 3 Getting to know scenarios on impact of climate change to

“Future water use and the challenge of hydropower development in western Balkan
11-13 February 2013, Ljubljana, Slovenia
SESSION 3
GETTING TO KNOW SCENARIOS ON IMPACT OF
CLIMATE CHANGE TO WATER AVAILABILITY IN
WESTERN BALKAN REGION UNTIL 2060
Scenario 1: The good
society in Balkan
"Opportunities for Development in the Western Balkans in the
Context of Climate Change Impacts and Water Scarcity”
Explorative scenario workshop
Belgrade, Serbia, 24-26 October 2011
Venue: Faculty for Applied Ecology Futura, Belgrade
Workshop questions:
• What are the options for development in Western Balkan region to
hedge risks associated with climate change impact on water
availability?
Workshop outcome:
• Scenarios on impact of climate change to water availability in Western
Balkan region (until around 2050 )
• Long term goals to hedge risks of climate change impact to water
availability
• Pathways to most important goals to hedge risks of climate change
impact to water availability
“Future water use and the challenge of hydropower development in western Balkan
11-13 February 2013, Ljubljana, Slovenia
Scenario
development
• Which are the most important
and uncertain driving forces
for water availability in the
future?
• political will for cooperation
and implementation on the
local/national level
• land use changes
• water technologies
efficiency
“Future water use and the challenge of hydropower development in western Balkan
11-13 February 2013, Ljubljana, Slovenia
Scenario
development
• What extremes of 3 most
important DF can happen
in the future?
• Extreme ends of selected 3
most important DF were
defined as follows:
• political will for cooperation
and implementation as low
to high
• land use changes (related to
water availability) as
unfavourable to favourable
• water technologies efficiency
ranging from low to high
“Future water use and the challenge of hydropower development in western Balkan
11-13 February 2013, Ljubljana, Slovenia
Scenario
development
• Test which scenarios
can happen in regards
to water availability in
the region and select
the most appropriate
scenario logic.
• Climate change impact
is defined as one, fixed,
abscissa axis ranging
from low to high
combined with 3 most
important DFs selected
“Future water use and the challenge of hydropower development in western Balkan
11-13 February 2013, Ljubljana, Slovenia
Scenario S1 The Good Balkan Society
• “SFRJ “ (Socialistic Federative Republic of Yugoslavia)
• low climate change in the region, sustainable
economic development
• trigger points are:
• New mind-sets adopted, especially of young people who’d
introduce a new approach to sustainable development
• Non carbon energy use
• Environment should be protected in global terms
• Social democracy needed (social rights, minority rights, gender
equality, welfare, health issues)
“Future water use and the challenge of hydropower development in western Balkan
11-13 February 2013, Ljubljana, Slovenia
Scenario S1 The Good Balkan Society
Global picture:
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China is high on agenda
BRICS take off
Peaceful world
Green economy
important
EU/EURO successful
No FAST technology
breakout on energy
Temp rises ↑
Food prices ↑
Water scarcity ↑
WB picture:
General:
• Positive development
(avoid war, EU
integration progress,
strong civil society,
increased foreign
investments, solidarity)
• WB region is quite
equality developed
• High quality of life: high
equality, happy, rich
• Good knowledge base
• Self sustained
Specific developments:
• Value added
technologies
• Mining ↑
• Agriculture ↓
• Farming ↓
• Tourism ↑
• Impact form CO2 is
well managed
“Future water use and the challenge of hydropower development in western Balkan
11-13 February 2013, Ljubljana, Slovenia
Newspaper headlines (2060)
“ Vote for us if you want to liVe better than
switzerland“ (politicians)
“ balkans haVe made something for the planet“
(NGOs)
“ we know how to do it, and how it should be done“
(businessmen)
“ elena’s daughter happily married in western
Balkans“
“Future water use and the challenge of hydropower development in western Balkan
11-13 February 2013, Ljubljana, Slovenia
2060.
S1 scenario description- by driving forces STEEP
Population increase, immigration
High quality of life, high education and health care
High public environment awareness
Social
characteristics
High education
Water supply for population satisfactory
Lower impact of hazards to people
Western Balkan finally happy
Low motivation for technological development byself (importing
Technological
characteristics
modern technology water treatment plants, desalinisation tech)
Adequate and safe technology is applied (including environment)
High GDP (business as usual)
Member of EU economy area
Economic
characteristics
High tech of environment protection equipment
Investments into modern technology
High level of productivity
Joining EU’s Aid to Developing Countries
“Future water use and the challenge of hydropower development in western Balkan
11-13 February 2013, Ljubljana, Slovenia
Clean environment, high level of environmental protection,
high ability to meet environmental needs
Environmental
characteristics
Integrated protection management
Good adaptation to climate change
No water scarcity and good water quality
Very well prepared for future shocks
Fast political response, early warning system well
developed, prepared for some shocks
Good user oriented legislation
Good political response (early warning system set)
Political
Characteristics
(including security)
Voluntary regional cooperation
Political will to deal with climate change issues, but
decreased will to join international cc cooperation
High motivation for providing international aid
“Future water use and the challenge of hydropower development in western Balkan
11-13 February 2013, Ljubljana, Slovenia
Risks and threats in Scenario 1
RISKS
1.
UNEVEN WATER SUPPLY IN TIME & SPACE
natural impact: climate change unpredictability and
variations;
anthropogenic influence: water management system water allocations not managed fully, priorities of politics,
legal frame, inadequate management response to climate
change
GOALS
High level of monitoring
system/network
Integrated water management
(the EU water framework directive
have been implemented in some
watershed in the region (Sava,
Neretva, Trebišnjica), improving
the water management system)
High/medium
2.
UNEXPECTED HASARDOUS IMPACT OF WATER
hazardous impact = natural disasters
climate change unpredictability
High level of monitoring and early
warning system (to be able to
predict, to have enough data,
connected to water management
system, modelling)
High/medium
“Future water use and the challenge of hydropower development in western Balkan
11-13 February 2013, Ljubljana, Slovenia
3.
DISAPPEARING THE PLANNED WATER STORAGE
LOCATIONS
Sustainable spatial planning
land use, land will be used for other purposes, lack of
public support
Low
4.
INSUFFICIENT AND/OR INADEQUATE WATER
INFRASTRUCTURE (SUPPLY)
immigration higher than expected, economic
development, inadequate technology applied, linked to R1
Low/medium
5.
RISKS TO AGRICULTURE AND INDUSTRY
because of R1, economic development, inadequate
technology
Efficient irrigation technologies
Water management to support
agriculture
Low
6.
DRINKING WATER SCARCITY IN COASTAL REGION
economic development, climate change variations, links R1, R3, R5
Medium/high
“Future water use and the challenge of hydropower development in western Balkan
11-13 February 2013, Ljubljana, Slovenia
7.
RISKS TO RIVER TRANSPORT, NAVIGATION
low flows (water scarcity), linked to R1
8.
RISK OF HIGH SHARE OF RENEWABLE ENERGY
(HYDROPOWER) – THEY CHANGE WATER REGIME
low flows, hydropower uses the water and affects the
flows
Low
9.
AVAILABILITY OF WATER FOR CONSUMERS
Improvement of water supply
network and efficiency
irresponsible consumption patterns, water management
system
Water affordability for all people
Low
10.
WATER POLLUTION
Preservation of high water quality
(EU water framework directive)
increased industrial production, land use, linked to R5
“Future water use and the challenge of hydropower development in western Balkan
11-13 February 2013, Ljubljana, Slovenia
Geography
The region of Western Balkan was
divided into 3 parts considering
precipitation in the region.
• North – plains, more precipitation.
• South – less precipitation because
of the land structure and coastal
area. Also karst area which
specific in terms of water frame
directive because managing the
area with ground water is different
than the other parts.
• South-east part (Serbia, Kosovo
and Albania) – driving forces are
mostly natural resources
exploitation (mining), industry and
agriculture.
“Future water use and the challenge of hydropower development in western Balkan
11-13 February 2013, Ljubljana, Slovenia
Pathways to safe minimising disaster
impacts of water (2060) for S1
First goal: minimising disaster impacts of water
• Politics: legislation, political will, implementation of water
framework directive, other policies on water management,
collaboration, spatial planning
• Social: public awareness and responsibility
• Technology: defence system (flood prevention), early
warning system, researches usually in universities,
hydrology infrastructure, IT
• Establishing good monitoring system, systems that
provide enough accurate data, predicting the future
• Environment: wild life protection
“Future water use and the challenge of hydropower development in western Balkan
11-13 February 2013, Ljubljana, Slovenia
Pathways to availability of water for
population (2060)
Second goal: availability of water for population
• 2 assumptions: 1) access of safe water to everybody, 2)
affordable to people.
• Politics: regulations, good laws for sustainable water use,
planning water usage and transfer, implementation of
different directives
• Technology: modern technologies for water treatment,
waste technologies, minimising water loss, maintenance
systems
• Social: public awareness on water importance along with
education
“Future water use and the challenge of hydropower development in western Balkan
11-13 February 2013, Ljubljana, Slovenia
Pathways to available water storage
locations (2060)
Third goal: available water storage locations
• Politics: spatial planning, land use, integrate planning on
national level, legislation, political will
• Technology: best available technology, rationalization of
water use
• Social: public awareness, education, consumption habits
• Environment: biodiversity protection
“Future water use and the challenge of hydropower development in western Balkan
11-13 February 2013, Ljubljana, Slovenia
Thank you for attention
“Future water use and the challenge of hydropower development in western Balkan
11-13 February 2013, Ljubljana, Slovenia