Transcript Template - Atmospheric and Oceanic Science

HONR 229L: Climate Change: Science, Economics, and Governance
Introduction to Climate Change
Your name here
30 September 2015
Copyright © 2015 University of Maryland.
This material may not be reproduced or redistributed, in whole or in part, without written permission from Ross Salawitch.
1
The reading states "Climate is the average of weather" and includes a statement that likely
seems preposterous to many:
Projecting changes in climate due to changes in greenhouse gases 50 years from now
is a very different and much more easily solved problem than forecasting weather
patterns just weeks from now.
The field of actuarial science can be viewed as being analogous to the field of climate
prediction: an actuary studies the life expectancy of large groups of people, allowing insurance
companies to thrive financially, even though they will likely pay out a considerably large benefit
upon the passing of everyone they insure.
Ross contends actuarial science is to trying to predict when any specific person will pass away
as climate science is to weather prediction.
State whether you agree or disagree with this contention and support your answer.
Then, consider asking the class to weigh in on this matter.
Copyright © 2015 University of Maryland.
This material may not be reproduced or redistributed, in whole or in part, without written permission from Ross Salawitch.
2
Using the chart on the following page, indicate:
a) the most important anthropogenic GHG
b) the second most important anthropogenic GHG
c) the third most important anthropogenic GHG
in terms of impact on radiative forcing of climate, between 1750 and 2005. Note: while the first
and second most important anthropogenic GHG are clear, one could make a plausible
argument as to which is the third most important GHG: please stop by and speak with me
about this matter.
I’d like you to indicate the most important GHG, then go over how we know human activity is
responsible for the atmospheric rise in this gase
Then, ditto for the second most important GHG.
Then, lead a “discussion” about which among O3, N2O, or halocarbons is the third most
important GHG.
Following this discussion, provide a brief overview, from FAQ 7.1, about O3, N2O, and
halocarbons
Copyright © 2015 University of Maryland.
This material may not be reproduced or redistributed, in whole or in part, without written permission from Ross Salawitch.
3
Radiative Forcing of Climate, 1750 to 2005
Question 2.1, IPCC, 2007
Copyright © 2015 University of Maryland.
This material may not be reproduced or redistributed, in whole or in part, without written permission from Ross Salawitch.
4
Copyright © 2015 University of Maryland.
This material may not be reproduced or redistributed, in whole or in part, without written permission from Ross Salawitch.
5
Discuss how sea level and Earth’s mean temperature have changed
Copyright © 2015 University of Maryland.
This material may not be reproduced or redistributed, in whole or in part, without written permission from Ross Salawitch.
6
Discuss how sea level and Earth’s mean temperature have changed
Copyright © 2015 University of Maryland.
This material may not be reproduced or redistributed, in whole or in part, without written permission from Ross Salawitch.
7
Discuss how sea level and Earth’s mean temperature have changed
Copyright © 2015 University of Maryland.
This material may not be reproduced or redistributed, in whole or in part, without written permission from Ross Salawitch.
8
We have spent considerable time in class talking about the importance of drought, which begs
the question “is precipitation changing?”
Prepare a slide or two, based on the material in FAQ 3.2, focused on historical changes in
precipitation. Relate the changes in the Palmer Drought severity index to the instances where
drought was implicated in the past “Collapse” of particular societies in Diamond’s book
Copyright © 2015 University of Maryland.
This material may not be reproduced or redistributed, in whole or in part, without written permission from Ross Salawitch.
9
Copyright © 2015 University of Maryland.
This material may not be reproduced or redistributed, in whole or in part, without written permission from Ross Salawitch.
10
Next, consider leading a discussion about the importance of atmospheric feedbacks. Can
based this off the admission ticket, which reads:
As the concentrations of greenhouse gases in Earths atmosphere rise, the surface
temperature will rise, leading snow and ice to melt.
First, state whether the melting of snow and ice acts as either a negative feedback, no
feedback (null), or positive feedback to the initial perturbation and justify your reply
with a sentence explaining your answer.
Next, describe whether the feedback involving atmospheric water vapor is either
positive, negative, or null.
Finally, describe whether the feedback involving clouds is either positive, negative, or
null.
This can be a lead in to the next slide … in my opinion, the key weakness in predicting
future climate is our present inability to properly simulate cloud feedback
Copyright © 2015 University of Maryland.
This material may not be reproduced or redistributed, in whole or in part, without written permission from Ross Salawitch.
11
Finally, consider a two pronged discussion on:
why scientists are confident the observed warming of the 20th century is primarily
caused by human release of GHGs and is not due to the natural variability of climate
(this of course is an Admission Ticket question)
the strength and weaknesses of climate models
This can constitute numerous slides and be sure to engage the class in a discussion about
whether or not they feel comfortable with so much (i.e., future habitability of our precious
Earth) relying essentially on computer simulations conducted using archaic languages such as
Fortran.
Copyright © 2015 University of Maryland.
This material may not be reproduced or redistributed, in whole or in part, without written permission from Ross Salawitch.
12
Copyright © 2015 University of Maryland.
This material may not be reproduced or redistributed, in whole or in part, without written permission from Ross Salawitch.
13
You’re welcome to use this 2 slide sequence, as well
CO2, CH4 & N2O time series
IPCC 2007 FAQ
What do these time series resemble ?
Copyright © 2015 University of Maryland.
This material may not be reproduced or redistributed, in whole or in part, without written permission from Ross Salawitch.
You’re welcome to use this 2 slide sequence, as well
CO2, CH4 & N2O time series
IPCC 2007 FAQ
Copyright © 2015 University of Maryland.
This material may not be reproduced or redistributed, in whole or in part, without written permission from Ross Salawitch.