Transcript Six Degrees to Hell ..

S X
6
Degrees
to
Hell
.....
5
4
3
2
1
or
Four Years
to a
Prosperous
Future
Six
E. Ortega
Degrees
A. N. R. Costa
to Hell
or
Laboratory of Ecological Engineering
Food Engineering School
State University of Campinas
Four Years
to a
Prosperous
Future
Progress of Science
Science since
Babylon
The Expansion of Capitalism
Mental Model
Economic Progress finds
the best conditions to
develop in production and
distribution systems
ruled by the free market
where the reinvested
profits make the labor
and the capital
increasingly productive
Competitive advantage is attained when larger
and more efficient factories produce more goods
to be sold in a growing market
The Expansion of Capitalism
Mental Model
• The Growth of the Gross Product (GNP) Maximizes the
Human Welfare
• Enterprises and Free Market Forces
will Allocated People and Resources
for a Better and Superior Use
• The Concerns about the Environment
Health are Important, but they
Should Balance with the
Requirements of the Economic
Growth, if a High Way of Living is
to be Kept
• Each Event Regarding Scarcity of Resources Triggers the
Development of Substitute Ones
The Problems Cannot Be Solved Within the
Boudaries of the Mentality that Generated Them
Albert Einstein
The Expansion of Capitalism
Industrial Revolution
Dual Economy
Population and CO2 Concentration
1100 Years
Linkages
10
Low
Productivity
Import
Substitution
Export
Markets
Low
Wages
Ripening
High
Productivity
High
Wages
Temporary Key Phases of an Industrial Revolution
1000
9 billion, 2050
8
800
CO2 Concentration
Key
Industries
World Population in Billions
Sprouting
Desplacements
of Craft Work
ppm
6.5 billion, 2007
6
600
Multinacional
Corporations
4
400
Information Age
Green Revolution
200
2
Industrial Revolution
Source: Taylor, K. S.
http://www.distance-ed.bcc.ctc.edu, 1996
Enlightenment
1500
1000
1900
2000
2100
Capitalists
Profits
Rent
Investment
Production
Goods
Wages
Low
Productivity
Sectors
Purchases
Labor
(Capital)
25,000
Exports
High
Productivity
Sectors
35
Carbon Dioxide Emissions
GWP
30
20,000
25
15,000
20
15
10,000
10
5,000
5
0
Income/
Demand
Workers
Early Industrial Capitalism, with Landrents
0
1950
75
80
85
90
55
60
65
70
Data Source: Adapted from Environment Canada Indicators Website
Flows of Goods and Labor During Dual Phase Economy
Source: Taylor, K. S.
http://www.distance-ed.bcc.ctc.edu, 1996
95
Metamorphosis: ...A complete change of
form, structure, or substance, as
transformation by magic or witchcraft.
- Random House Dictionary
GWP 1995 US$ Trillions)
Rent
Labor
(Consumer Goods)
CO2 Emissions (Megatonnes)
Landlords
The Expansion of Capitalism
Industrial Revolution
Greenhouse
Gas
Chemical
Formula
Pre-Industrial
Concentration
1994
Concentration
Percent
Increase
Carbon
Dioxide
CO2
278 ppm
358 ppm
30%
Methane
CH4
700 ppb
1721 ppm
240%
Fossil Fuels
Rice Paddies
Waste Dumps
Nitrous
Oxide
N2O
275 ppb
811 ppb
150%
Fertilizer
Industrial Processes
Fossil Fuel Combustion
Sulfur
Hexafluoride
SF6*
0
0,032 ppb
* Does not Exist Naturally and is Human Generated
Human Source
Fossil Fuel Combustion
Land Use Change
Cement Production
Dielectric Fluid
The Expansion of Capitalism
Industrial Revolution
The Expansion of Capitalism
Revolução Industrial
Lessons from the Past
550
500
450
400
Current (2001)
350
300
250
200
200,000
Years before the Present
100,000
Landmass Distribution
•
–
Vostok Ice Core Data
National Geophysical Data Center
•
Temperature
(Deg. C +/- Normal)
280
–
240
Elliptical Orbit of the Earth
•
220
–
200
180
–
0
•
–
Heat Retention
•
-10
20
40
60
80
100 120
–
140 160
What is the
Present Condition?
Change in Temperature (ºC)
Years Before Present (x 1000)
What is their Value
for the Future?
100,000 Year Cycle
Atmospheric Causes
-8
0
41,000 Year Cycle: +/- 1,5%
Solar Energy Output
•
-6
21,000 Year Cycle – Precession of
Equinoxes
Wobble in Earth’s Orbit
•
2
-4
Sea Floor Spreading
Astronomical Causes
280
-2
Continental Drifts
Underseas Ridges Activity
•
300
Today
Source: Co-operative Research Centre for
Greenhouse Accounting, 2001
Tectonic Causes
–
Carbon Dioxide
(parts per million)
600
Note: Civilisation Begun 7,000 – 10,000 Years Ago
Parts per Million of Carbon Dioxide
650
Carbon Dioxide Concentrations in the Atmosphere
Are at a Higher Level than for 400,000 Years
300,000
•
700
Projected (2100)
400,000
What and Who Makes
the Weather?
Greenhouse Effect
Solar Reflectivity
•
Clouds, Volcanic Dust, Polar Ice
Caps
Holocen Maximum
2
0
Little Ice Age
-2
-4
18
16
14
12
12
8
6
4
Thousands of Years Before Present
2
0
Lessons from the Past
Vostok Ice Core Data
National Geophysical Data Center
280
600
Note: Civilisation Begun 7,000 – 10,000 Years Ago
550
500
450
400
Current (2001)
350
300
250
200
400,000
300,000
200,000
Years before the Present
Carbon Dioxide
(parts per million)
300
650
Temperature
(Deg. C +/- Normal)
Carbon Dioxide Concentrations in the Atmosphere
Are at a Higher Level than for 400,000 Years
700
Parts per Million of Carbon Dioxide
Projected (2100)
Today
100,000
•
Tectonic Causes
–
Landmass Distribution
•
–
280
•
220
180
Elliptical Orbit of the Earth
•
2
–
0
-2
–
-6
20
60
40
80
100 120
140 160
Years Before Present (x 1000)
•
–
–
Heat Retention
Change in Temperature (ºC)
Little Ice Age
-4
18
16
14
12
12
8
6
4
Thousands of Years Before Present
Clouds, Volcanic Dust, Polar Ice
Caps
What is their Value
for the Future?
0
-2
Greenhouse Effect
Solar Reflectivity
•
Holocen Maximum
100,000 Year Cycle
Atmospheric Causes
•
2
41,000 Year Cycle: +/- 1,5%
Solar Energy Output
•
-8
-10
21,000 Year Cycle – Precession of
Equinoxes
Wobble in Earth’s Orbit
•
-4
Sea Floor Spreading
Astronomical Causes
–
200
Continental Drifts
Underseas Ridges Activity
•
240
0
Source: Co-operative Research Centre for
Greenhouse Accounting, 2001
What and Who Makes
the Weather?
2
0
What is the
Present Condition?
The Present Impact
Summary of
Main Findings
Observational evidence from all continents and most oceans shows
that many natural systems are being affected by regional
climate changes, particularly temperature increases.
A global assessment of data since 1970 has shown it is likely
that anthropogenic warming has had a discernible influence on
many physical and biological systems.
Other effects of regional climate changes on natural and human
environments are emerging, although many are difficult to
discern due to adaptation and non-climatic drivers.
Magnitudes of impact can now be estimated more systematically
for a range of possible increases in global average temperature.
Some adaptation is occurring now, to observed and projected
future climate change, but on a limited basis.
The Present Impact
Summary of
Main findings
A wide array of adaptation options is available, but more
extensive adaptation than is currently occurring is
required to reduce vulnerability to future climate change.
There are barriers, limits and costs, but these are not
fully understood.
Vulnerability to climate change can be exacerbated by the
presence of other stresses.
Many impacts can be avoided, reduced or delayed by
mitigation.
A portfolio of adaptation and mitigation measures can
diminish the risks associated with climate change.
What is the Current
Consensus?
The Present Impact
NAM
LA
AFR
2
100%
100%
AS
106
8
96%
100%
1500
40
1000
Cretaceous
Extictions
20
500
0
100%
-
120
24
91%
100%
TER
)
5
Extinction Rate
60
0
2500
2000
Permian
Extinctions
764
28,586
94%
90%
MFW**
1
85
100%
99%
0
Paleozoic
C 1999 Addison Wesley Longman Inc.
Mesozoic
Tertiary
89%
Number of Families
80
Cretaceous
94%
0
200
400
Jurassic
28,115
600
100
6
PR*
Number of Families (
355
Extinction Rate (% of Families that Died Out (
)
EUR
ANZ
Millions of Years Ago
Triassic
100%
Permian
98%
Carboniferous
5
Percentage of
significant changes
consistent with
warming
Devonian
53
Percentage of
significant changes
consistent with
warming
Silurian
92%
Number of
significant observed
changes
Ordovician
94%
Number of
significant observed
changes
Cambrian
455
Biological
Precambrian
355
Physical
Cenozoic
GLO
765
28,671
94%
90%
The Future Impact
Summary of
Main findings
More specific information is now available across a wide
range of systems and sectors concerning the nature of
future impacts, including for some fields not covered in
previous assessments.
More specific information is now available across the
regions of the world concerning the nature of future
impacts, including for some places not covered in previous
assessments.
Impacts due to altered frequencies and intensities of
extreme weather, climate and sea-level events are very
likely to change.
Some large-scale climate events have the potential to
cause very large impacts, especially after the 21st
century.
The Future Impact
Summary of
main findings
Impacts of climate change will vary regionally but,
aggregated and discounted to the present, they are very
likely to impose net annual costs which will increase over
time as global temperatures increase.
Adaptation will be necessary to address impacts resulting
from the warming which is already unavoidable due to
past emissions.
Future vulnerability depends not only on climate change
but also on development pathway.
Sustainable development can reduce vulnerability to
climate change, and climate change could impede nations’
abilities to achieve sustainable development pathways.
A Little Bit Warmer?
Windows into a Changing World
•
•
•
•
•
Delphic Oracle?
Nostradamus Next Door?
Prophecies Already Coming True
A Secret Surviving Manual or a Global Warning?
Refuges in Arctic or Life a Little Bit Warmer?
If 6 Degrees of Cooling Nearly Wiped Us
in the Past, Might Six Degrees of Warming
Have Similar Effect?
Starting the Heating
6
5
4
3
2
1
1ºC
The Heat Goes On
6
5
4
3
2
1
2ºC
Feedback To The Hell
6
5
4
3
2
1
3ºC
In To The Hell
6
5
4
3
2
1
4ºC
Reborn in Hell
6
5
4
3
2
1
5ºC
Anthropocene Mass Extinction
6
5
4
3
2
1
6ºC
Is There a Climate Policy ?
DEGREE
CHANGE
TEMPERATURE
IN CELSIUS
ACTION NEEDED
CO2 TARGET
One Degree
0.1 - 1.0ºC
Avoidance Probably
not Possible
350 ppm (*)
Two Degrees
1.1 – 2.0ºC
Peak Global Emission
by 2015
400 ppm
Threshold for Carbon-Cycle Feedback?
Three Degress
2.1 – 3.0ºC
Peak Global Emission
by 2030
450ppm
Threshold for Siberian Methane Feedback
Four Degrees
3.1 – 4.0ºC
Peak Global Emission
by 2050
550 ppm
Five Degrees
4.1 – 5.0ºC
Allow Constantly Rising
Emission
650 ppm
Six Degrees
5.1 – 6.0ºC
Allow Very High
Emissions
800 ppm
(*) Today’s Level is 380 ppm
The Cosmic Perspective?
Open Systems
The Present Condition Imposes a Different and Urgent Vision
Guiding the Future
Giant Shoulders?
Odum
Flannery
Lovelock
Lynas
Forrester
Cohen
IPCC
Dealing with a Changing Future Moving Targets
The end of the future as is now believed
The Dimensions of the Crisis
Knowing the
Truth
Speed of Correction
How Wide is
the Window ?
Conditions to (Re) Act
Catalytic Self
Organization
Degraded Systems
Endangered Zones
Resilience and Homeostasis
Healthy Systems
Supporting Transition
Pointing Places
Local Strategies for Global Changes
All Places All Levels
Managing Changes
What to Do?
What Resources ?
Science Guiding Light
Finite Resources and
Capacity of Adjustment
Economy Pointing Arrow
Revealing Exceeding
Resources
Emergy
Modeling and Accounting
Politics
Talking into Consensus
Technology
Building Solutions
Interactions
Establishing Sinergy
Future Around the Corner
Who Leads the
Establishment of
a New Order ?
A New Order
Humans
Ecosystems
A New Order
Energy Diagram Approach
Possible Utopias
Utopia
1: a place of ideal perfection in laws, government,
and social conditions
2: an impractical scheme for social improvement
The Merriam-Webster Dictionary, 2004
Limitations
Feasible Utopias
States of Living
Life Style
Local Resources
Size of the Planet
References
•
http://www.distance-ed.bcc.ctc.edu, Accessed on may, the 5th 2008 – 22:38h