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Introduction to China National key project Stratospheric Process and Its Role in Weather and Climate in Eastern Asia Daren Lu LAGEO/IAP/CAS ASM-STE, Lhasa, Jul 21-23, 2010 Collaborators IAP CAS Dep. Atmos. Peking U. College A.S. Lanzhou U. CAMS CMA National C C CMA Dep. A.S. U. S&T China Nanjing U. Inform. S&T Dep. A.S. Yunnan U. Contents 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. Introduction Key scientific issues Scientific goals Scientific strategy Scientific team Plan for field campaign in 2010 T structure Stratosphere T（ºC） Processes in ST Solar GW breaking GW Breaking O3 layer Mid-lat. polar Troposphere tropics O3 depletion Stratosphere BD Circ. Climate model top in IPCC-AR4 IAP/CAS P（hPa) Alt.（km） stratopause tropopause Simple description of stratosphere in climate model. Cordero and Forster, 2006 Simulated results in IPCC-AR4 (1979-1999) Global mean T T bias P（hPa） P（hPa） Stratosphere Troposphere T（K） T bias（K） Cordero and Forster, 2006 Global temperature trend in IPCC-AR4 (1958-1999) 气压（hPa） stratosphere Troposphere trend（K/dec） Cordero and Forster, 2006 CCM history 云 降雨 CCM Future 陆表 AR5 冰盖 第一次评估1990 stratosphere 第二次评估1996 沼泽海洋 植被 第三次评估2001 碳循环 将来 第四次评估2007 气溶胶 Figure 1.2 O3 depletion & Antarctic O3 hole ODS decrease & recovery of O3 layer Stratospheric Harbingers of Anomalous Weather Regimes Composites of NAM for 18 weak vortex events （Baldwin & Dunkerton, Science 2001） 平流层 对流层 时间 时间 超前 超前 15天 时间尺度延长 时间尺度延长 Vast snow and ice disasters in South China in early 2008 caused significant economic losses Snow-storm & freezing Pre-disaster: Anomalous signal in stratosphere propagated downward Jan 1 Jan 5 Jan 15 Jan 20 Jan 25 High Trough Height anomaly during Jan 1-27, 2008 (along 60ºN) Topic 1: Atmospheric dynamics, physics, and chemistry in UTLS, particular in eastern Asia 等熵输送 复杂边界 下侵 对 流 输 送 长距离输送 Role of Tibet Plateau？ 对流输送 Topic 2: ST coupling in different scales, particular the mechanism of stratospheric process affecting weather and climate in EA B-D Cir Wave breaking QBO Wave driven pump 信 号 下 传 波产生 Topic 3: Chemistry-climate coupling under external forcing, such as human activity and solar activity radiation chemistry Topic 4: Interaction between climate warming and ozone recovery Ozone recovery Climate warming Scientific goals to understand the UTLS structure in Eastern Asia to understand ST coupling in different scales to understand chemistry-climate coupling to understand climate and weather processes in Eastern Asia affected by stratospheric process to project the climate trend under ozone recovery and increase of global greenhouse gas Scientific strategy Dynamic diagnoses Data (campaign) (satellite) (……) ST dynamic coupling UTLS Chemistry climate coupling Model simulation Project of O3 recovery & climate change Index of weather and climate in stratosphere Scientific themes 1. Stratospheric process and structure observation in East Asia. To provide dataset for stratospheric processes in EA, to understand stratospheric processes in EA, and to provide data base for the whole project and model validation. –Daren Lu, IAP/CAS 2. Atmospheric processes in UTLS. To understand structure in EA UTLS, to estimate the STE role over EA in global budget, and to understand the deep convection transport to UTLS in EA.—Jianchun Bian, IAP/CAS 3. Process and mechanism of ST dynamical coupling. To understand the climatology of GWs in EA, to understand the activity of planetary waves and their role in ST coupling, and to understand the mechanism of stratosphere acting on troposphere. –Wen Chen, IAP/CAS Scientific themes 4. Chemistry-climate coupling and the role of EA monsoon and human activity. To understand the impact of climate change on the trend of stratospheric species (O3, H2O), to understand the impact of human, solar and volcanic activity on stratosphere, to estimate the role of EA monsoon in CC coupling. –Wenshou Tian, Lanzhou U. 5. Ozone layer recovery and its role on climate change. To understand the trend of ozone layer, to project the recovery of ozone layer in 21st century and its impact from climate change. –Yu Liu, CAMS/CMA 6. Anomalous stratospheric process and its relation to weather and climate in EA. To analyze the correlation between stratospheric process and weather and climate in EA, to understand the involved mechanism. –Yongyun Hu, Peking U. Campaign Satellite Beijing O3 & H2O sonde Lanzhou Hefei Wuhan Lhasa Sonde Lidar ST radar ST radar Total ozone observation network 龙凤山 (1993) 阜康 沈阳 北京 香 河 (1979) 香河 瓦里关 (1993)兰州 上海 临 安 拉 拉萨 萨 (1993) (2008) 昆 明 (1980) Brewer Dobson Satellite data Instrument Launch time Height range Vertical Resolution Products MIPAS 2002 tropopause ~70 km 3 km O3, H2O, NO2, T, aerosol GOMOS 2002 tropopause ~100 km 1.7 km O3, H2O, NO2, NO3, T, aerosol SCIAMACHY 2002 0-100 km 3 km O3, H2O, NO2, N2O, OClO, BrO, CO, CH4, SO2, aerosol OMI MLS 2004 0-100 km 1～3 km O3, H2O, OH, CO, HNO3, NO, NO2, BrO, SO2, arsl COSMIC 2006 0-60 km 200 m T, ρ CloudSat 2006 0-20 km ~150 m Cloud profile CALIPSO 2006 0-20 km ~50 m Cloud, thin cirrus, aerosol Numerical model Global chemistry-climate simulation: UMSLIMCAT from Leeds WACCM from NCAR ＋ Regional mesoscale: WRF+CHEM Convection: 3D convection model Scientific team 1. IAP/CAS -Daren Lu, Hongbin Chen, Jianchun Bian, Wen Chen, Xiushu Qie, Yi Liu, Zeyun Chen, Rongcai Ren, Shuanglin Li, Yuejian Xuan, Xuexi Tie 2. Peking University –Yongyun Hu, Benkui Tan, Zuntao Fu 3. Lanzhou University –Wenshou Tian, Qiang Fu, Lei Zhang 4. Yunnan Univesity –Shichang Guo, Weiguo Wang 5. University of Science & Technology of China –Yunfei Fu, Yuejuan Chen, Renjun Zhou 6. Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology –Lianji Jin, Chunhua Shi, Renqiang Liu 7. Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences –Yu Liu, Xuepeng Zhao, Hongli Liu 8. National Climate Center/CMA –Yanjun Guo, Xiaolong Jia, Ying Sun Plan for field campaign in 2010 Cut-off low in Northeast China—Stratospheric intrusion Site: Changchun, Qiqihaer, Beijing Instrument: Ozonesonde, surface O3, NOx, CO, SO2, all-sky imager Period: May 24-Jun 25 Troposphere to stratosphere transport over Tibet in summer Site: Lhasa Instrument: H2O & O3 sonde, COBALD Period: Aug 15-30 Thanks for your attention