Transcript Global Warming Consensus - The Catholic University of America

Global Warming
Facts and Myths
Scott A. Mathews, Ph.D.
The Catholic University of America
The Information Problem
• Who should you believe?
• Is the internet a reliable
source of information?
• Who has an “agenda” or
vested interest?
• Does the “man in the
street” understand the
science.
• Where can you find
reliable facts on the
subject?
OPINION
Why should you believe me?
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I am a “real” scientist:
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B.S. Physics
M.S. Engineering
Ph.D. Engineering
20 years of R&D
More 40 scientific publications
Every significant statement in this
presentation is labeled as either “FACT” or
“OPINION”
All FACTS site a specific source.
All sources are “hyperlinked” so you can see
the original document with single “mouseclick”
I receive no funding from:
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Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
Green Peace
The Oil-Gas-Coal Industry
Al Gore, George Bush, Dick Chaney
Hippies
The Alternative Energy Industry
FACT
How do you know what to believe?
• Unfortunately, you can’t
believe any single,
individual scientist.
• The world is full of
“quacks”, and scientist
are not immune.
• The scientific method is
based publication, peer
review, and independent
confirmation.
• Trust professional
scientific societies.
•Trust reputable, peer
reviewed, scientific
journals.
OPINION
Some Background and Some Definitions
MY DEFINITIONS
• Global Warming: An increase in
the average measured temperature
of the Earth’s near surface air and
oceans.
• Anthropogenic Global Warming:
Global warming specifically
attributable to human activity.
• CO2 Related Global Warming:
Anthropogenic global warming
specifically attributable to increased
levels of CO2 in the atmosphere.
• Greenhouse Effect: A commonly
observed principle of physics that
results in the build-up of thermal
energy in closed systems with
specific optical properties.
So…What are the facts?
Global Warming: Is the Earth Getting
Warmer?
http://environment.newscientist.com/channel/earth/climate-change/dn11639
FACT
http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/globalwarming.html
http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/cru/data/temperature/HadCRUT3
_accepted.pdf
FACT
http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/
FACT
Global warming my
@#$!
It’s still cold!
Effects of “Global Warming”
• “Global Warming” does not mean
that you and I will notice an
increase in temperatures.
• Most experts believe that an
increase in average global
temperatures will lead to more
“anomalous” weather events;
more extreme weather.
• Some models predict temperate
regions undergoing a “mini-ice
age”.
• Many experts have stopped using
the term “Global Warming” and
now use the term “Climate
Change”.
http://lwf.ncdc.noaa.go
v/oa/climate/globalwar
ming.html#q9
FACT
Arctic Sea Ice
http://nsidc.org/data/seaice_index/
FACT
Ice Free Arctic?
“The committee was also asked to
analyze any changes in roles and
missions of polar icebreakers in the
support of all national priorities, including
consideration of ongoing and predicted
environmental change, and to assess
whether changes are needed to the
existing laws governing U.S. Coast Guard
polar icebreaking operations to address
potential new missions and new operating
regimes.”
“Economic activity is predicted to
increase and move northward as a result
of sea-ice retreat.”
http://books.nap.edu/openbook.php?record_id=11753&page=5
FACT
Boulder Glacier
Glacier National Park, MT
1932
T. J. Hileman photo
Courtesy of GNP archives
1988
Jerry DeSanto photo
FACT
26/150
USGS Repeat Photography Project
http://nrmsc.usgs.gov/repeatphoto/
FACT
http://www.whrc.org/resources/online_publications/warming_earth/scientific_evidence.htm
Scientific Consensus
Journals
• Examined 928 Peer reviewed
journal papers published between
1993 and 2003
• Six Categories
• explicit endorsement
• mitigation
• evaluation of impact
• methods
• paleoclimate analysis
• explicit rejection
• First 2 categories “imply”
anthropogenic global climate
change.
• 3 implies climate change, but not
necessarily anthropogenic
• 4 & 5 do not endorse
• 75% of papers fall into the first 3
• 25% of papers fall into 4 & 5
• ZERO papers fall into category 6!
www.sciencemag.org
FACT
Statements by Concurring Organizations
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Global_warming_consensus
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Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 2007
InterAcademy Council Joint science academies’ statement 2007, 2005,
2001 International Council of Academies of Engineering and
Technological Sciences
European Academy of Sciences and Arts
Network of African Science Academies
National Research Council (US)
European Science Foundation
American Association for the Advancement of Science
Federation of American Scientists
World Meteorological Organization
American Meteorological Society
Royal Meteorological Society (UK)
Australian Meteorological and Oceanographic Society
Canadian Meteorological and Oceanographic Society
Canadian Foundation for Climate and Atmospheric Sciences
International Union for Quaternary Research
American Quaternary Association
Stratigraphy Commission of the Geological Society of London
FACT
Statements by Concurring Organizations
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Global_warming_consensus
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American Society for Microbiology
American Public Health Association
American Statistical Association
Engineers Australia (The Institution of Engineers Australia)
Federal Climate Change Science Program (US)
Canadian Federation of Earth Sciences
Geological Society of America
American Geophysical Union
American Astronomical Society
American Institute of Physics
American Physical Society
American Chemical Society
International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics
International Union of Geological Sciences
European Geosciences Union
FACT
Statements by Noncommittal Organizations
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Global_warming_consensus
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American Association of State Climatologists
FACT
Statements by Dissenting Organizations
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Global_warming_consensus
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American Association of Petroleum Geologists (2006)
OLD
FACT
Statements by Noncommittal Organizations
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Global_warming_consensus
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American Association of State Climatologists
American Association of Petroleum Geologists (2007)*
FACT
Statements by Dissenting Organizations
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Global_warming_consensus
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Statements by Dissenting Organizations
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Global_warming_consensus
“With the July 2007 release
of the revised statement by
the American Association
of Petroleum Geologists,
no remaining scientific
body of national or
international standing is
known to reject the basic
findings of human
influence on recent
climate.”
http://dpa.aapg.org/gac/statements/climatechange.pdf
FACT
My Interpretation of the Facts
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The Earth is getting warmer.
Climate change has already started.
Few reputable scientists (if any) reject this conclusion.
It is very highly likely that recent changes in climate are
due to human activity.
There is broad consensus among scientist about
anthropogenic climate change.
The vast majority of scientist believe that CO2 levels
are a major factor affecting climate.
There is some “real” scientific debate as to the
magnitude of the effect of CO2.
There is some “real” scientific debate over the
“timetable”.
OPINION
Some Final Thoughts
• We are not talking about losing
some polar bears and some
beach-front property in Florida.
• We are talking about changing
the very nature of the planet and
all the life it supports.
• We don’t know, with any certainty,
how long it will take to reach the
“tipping point”, the point of no
return.
• We do know that the process has
begun.
• What are the risks if we try to
address this problem?
• What are the risks if we do
nothing?
OPINION