Transcript One Billion High Emitters

One Billion High Emitters:
A New Approach for Sharing
Global CO2 Emission
Reductions
Shoibal Chakravarty (PEI), Ananth Chikkatur (Harvard),
Heleen de Coninck (ECN), Steve Pacala (PEI),
Robert Socolow (PEI), Massimo Tavoni (FEEM)
Contact: [email protected]
Background
• United Nations Framework Convention on Climate
Change
– “Common but differentiated responsibilities”
– Two-tier world: Annex I (industrialised countries) and
non-Annex I (rest of the world)
– Kyoto Protocol builds on this
• Ignores emission inequality within nations
• Guiding principle: agreement between sovereign
states
What is a fair distribution of emission
allowances among countries?
• Based on a negotiated outcome? (Kyoto)
• Based on cumulative historical contribution to climate
change?
• Or perhaps on future contribution to the climate
problem?
• Based on the reduction potentials (geography, climate)?
• Based on national per capita greenhouse gas
emissions? (Contraction and convergence)
• Based on the emissions of the individuals in a country?
What this paper does (and does
not do)
It does:
– Treat two individuals with the same emissions
equally, regardless of their nationality
– Provide a simple but flexible ordering principle on
which to base emission allocation to countries: both
developed and developing
It does not:
– Prescribe specific policy options
– Does not include land use emissions and non-CO2
gases
Per-capita energy related CO2
emissions (2005)
Source: IEA WEO 2007
Per-capita energy related CO2
emissions (2030)
Source: IEA WEO 2007
National responsibilities based
on individual emissions
• Focus on the CO2 emissions of individual
• Treat every individual the same, no matter in which
country they live
• Calculate the individual emissions cap: an appropriate
emission allowance of any individual in the world
• Find the nation’s cap: Add up the individual allowances
for each citizen in a country
Individuals ranked by annual emissions
8
Determine the globally applicable
individual emissions cap
Individual Emissions Cap
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Some people exceed the individual
emissions cap
Individual Emissions Cap
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Add the capped emissions of the
citizens to determine the
national target
+
Individual Emissions Cap
+
+
+
+
+
Required
= Reductions
=
National
Emissions
Target
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Use income distribution data to arrive
at individual carbon distributions
Apply Country
CO2 intensity
Rank all people in the world,
highest to lowest emission-wise
75%
50%
Choose a global target:
30 GtCO2 in 2030
Total emissions: 43 GtCO2
Choose a global target:
30 GtCO2 in 2030
Reduction: 13 GtCO2
Target 30 GtCO2 = 10.8 tCO2/person/yr
Other global targets?
2003: 26 GtCO2
2030: 43 GtCO2
13 Gt
30 Gt
2030
Regional emissions in 2030
China
Rest of world
Rest of OECD
30 Gt global cap, 10.8 t individual cap
30 Gt global cap, 10.8 individual cap
U.S.
For a 30 GtCO2 global cap in 2030,
similar population on which targets are
based for four groupings
Regional targets change with different
global targets in 2030
12.0
10.0
8.0
6.0
4.0
2.0
0.0
USA
OECD
Europe
1990 (21.2 Gt)
China
2003 (25.5 Gt)
India
2030 BAU (43Gt)
Middle East
35 Gt
Russia
30 Gt
25 Gt
Africa
20 Gt
Headroom for the poor?
• Most allocation schemes introduce fairness through a per
capita emission convergence component
• This allocation scheme introduces fairness through
treating every individual the same
• However, is it fair if the very poor remain very poor?
• Allow the 2.7 billion people at < 1 tCO2/yr to grow
• What does 1 tCO2/person/yr mean
– 800 kWh coal-fired power; 65km of driving; 14 kg LPG/month
– X 2 for indirect emissions
Combine global-emissions cap
and individual-emissions floor
“30P” in 2030: 30 GtCO2 global emissions cap
plus 1 tCO2 floor on individual emissions
Individual cap:
without floor: 10.8 t CO2
with floor:
9.6 t CO2
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Regional targets, with the 1tCO2 floor,
for different global targets
12.0
10.0
8.0
6.0
4.0
2.0
0.0
USA
OECD
Europe
1990 (21.2 Gt)
China
2003 (25.5 Gt)
India
2030 BAU (43Gt)
Middle East
35 Gt
Russia
30 Gt
25 Gt
Africa
20 Gt
Conclusion
• It is possible to arrive at national caps based on incomebased individual emissions
• Only an allocation mechanism: flexibility on policy
instrument
• Global cap of 30 GtCO2 in 2030 results in about 1 billion
people having to reduce emissions
• The need of the poorest 2.7 billion people to emit more
can be accommodated (but also uncertainty whether the
poor will be spared)
What’s missing and how do we
incorporate it ?
• CO2 from land use and non-CO2 gases
• Historical emissions: lifetime emissions, link to
demographic statistics
• Strong levels of convergence
• Account for factors other than carbon intensity,
e.g. geographical circumstances, climate,
population density