Transcript Could 2010 be the hottest year on record?

NASA annual surface temperature anomaly relative to 1951-1980 mean,
based on surface air measurements at meteorological stations and ship and
satellite measurements of sea surface temperature.
Could 2010 be the hottest year on record?
Posted at 8:59 AM on October 27, 2009 by Paul Huttner (68 Comments)
The numbers are in, and it looks like the "global cooling" theory just melted
away.
A new independent statistical analysis of climate records for the past 130
years confirms that the global temperature trend continues upward. The
study was performed for The Associated Press by four independent
university statistics experts. The four were given blind data sets and asked to
analyze the trends, not knowing they were analyzing temperature data to
remove any possible bias.
.NASA annual surface temperature anomaly relative to 1951-1980 mean,
based on surface air measurements at meteorological stations and ship and
satellite measurements of sea surface temperature.
Some climate change skeptics have been claiming that the earth has been
cooling since 1998, which until that time was the hottest year in the 130
global year surface record. 2005 was slightly hotter according to a NASA
analysis. According to NOAA the last 10 years are the hottest decade
anywhere in the modern global historical record.
It is remarkable statistically that the 13 warmest years in the modern record
have all occurred since 1990. The fact that the 13 warmest years since 1880
could have occured by accident after 1990 corresponds to a likelihood of no
more than 1:10 000. That's the equivalent of flipping a coin and having it
come up "heads" 14 times in a row.
Some climate change skeptics point to solar variability as the primary reason
for climate changes on earth. The problem is, we've just observed two of the
least active sunspot years in the last century in 2008 and 2009 during the
current solar minimum. You would expect then that those two years would be
cooler than average globally if the solar cycle theory is valid.
Instead, 2008 was the 8th warmest year in the global temperature record.
And event though parts of the U.S. have been running cool in this year,
globally 2009 is on pace to be the 6th warmest year on record. That pretty
much shreds the solar variability only theory on global temperatures. Why
did we observe two "top 10" warmest years during the lowest period of solar
activity in nearly a century? Something else is at play here. Atmospheric
changes are likely overcoming any natural solar variability.
Climate forcing graph shows solar variability as a much smaller climate
change forcing component than greenhouse gasses.
(Sent to me by Kerry Emanuel MIT, based on Meehl et al. (2004) courtesy
globalwarmingart.com)
This brings us to 2010, which is right around the corner. Several key
elements appear to be in place that could produce one of the hottest years, if
not the hottest year, in the modern global record.
1) The cooling effects of La Nina are gone in the Pacific Ocean. A moderate
El Nino is gaining strength as we enter 2010. This may aid a rise in global
temperatures in 2010.
2) The deepest solar minimum in nearly a century appears to be over.
Sunspot 1029 formed rapidly this week and is the strongest this year. This
could indicate the ramping up of solar cycle 24. Most astronomers expect a
dramatic increase in solar activity in 2010.
If all these elements fall into place and the trend of recent decades
continues, 2010 could be one of the hottest years on record.
Stay tune