Transcript John Poorman

Climate Change and
Transportation and Land Use
Planning
John P. Poorman
October 2006
[email protected]
Can transportation and
land use planning
mitigate the rate of global
climate change?
1. We must respect the
laws of physics,
economics, politics and
household behavior.
2. What is possible is not
always probable; what is
improbable is not
necessarily impossible.
3. Public policy typically
seeks to accomplish a goal
while simultaneously
preserving the status quo.
4. American preference is
to look to technology for
solutions that preserve the
status quo.
5. Significant
technological change
comes unexpectedly and
carries unintended
consequences.
6. Household behavior is
remarkably consistent – if
observed at the level of
core relationships.
Can transportation and
land use planning
mitigate the rate of global
climate change?
Transp &
Land Use
Can it
reduce climate change?
?
Transp &
Land Use
Can it
Reduce
climate
change?
?
Mitigate
impacts of?
?
Can it
Macro
Policy
Local
Planning
Reduce
climate
change?
?
?
Mitigate
impacts of?
?
?
Can it
Market
Forces
Macro
Policy
Local
Planning
Reduce
climate
change?
?
?
?
Mitigate
impacts of?
?
?
?
Can it
Will it
Market
Forces
Macro
Policy
Local
Planning
Reduce
climate
change?
?
?
?
Mitigate
impacts of?
?
?
?
Reduce
climate
change?
?
?
?
Mitigate
impacts of?
?
?
?
Can it
Will it
Market
Forces
Macro
Policy
Local
Planning
Reduce
climate
change?
No
Yes
Yes
Mitigate
impacts of?
?
?
?
Reduce
climate
change?
?
?
?
Mitigate
impacts of?
?
?
?
GHG Emission Reductions

State Energy Plans: 18 – 33%


Arizona: 72% from policy; 28% planning
Todd Litman

“Win-win” strategies: 26 – 62% split between
policy and planning.
Win-Win Strategies
Directly
Affects
Travel?
Total Reductions
Cumulative Reductions
Low
Middle
High
Low
Middle
High
Planning Reforms
No
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
0.0%
0%
0.0%
Regulatory Reforms
No
1.0%
2.3%
4.0%
0.0%
0%
0.0%
TDM Programs
No
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
0.0%
0%
0.0%
Commute Trip Reduction
Yes
0.8%
1.8%
3.0%
0.7%
2%
3.0%
Partly
1.5%
3.5%
6.0%
1.5%
4%
5.9%
Fuel Taxes - Tax Shifting
Yes
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
6.4%
13%
20.0%
Pay-As-You-Drive Pricing
Yes
8.0%
10.6%
13.5%
13.9%
22%
30.8%
Road/Congestion Pricing
Yes
0.5%
1.5%
3.0%
14.3%
24%
32.9%
Parking Management
Yes
2.0%
3.4%
5.0%
16.0%
26%
36.3%
Parking Pricing
Yes
4.0%
6.8%
10.0%
19.4%
31%
42.6%
Transit and Rideshare Improvements
Yes
2.0%
4.5%
8.0%
21.0%
34%
47.2%
HOV Priority
Yes
0.5%
1.1%
2.0%
21.4%
35%
48.3%
Walking and Cycling Improvements
Yes
1.0%
2.3%
4.0%
22.2%
36%
50.3%
Smart Growth Reforms
Yes
3.0%
8.0%
15.0%
24.5%
41%
57.8%
Location Efficient Housing and Mortgages
No
1.0%
2.3%
4.0%
24.5%
41%
57.8%
Mobility Management Marketing
Yes
1.5%
3.0%
5.0%
25.7%
43%
59.9%
Freight Transport Management
Yes
0.3%
1.0%
2.3%
25.9%
43%
60.8%
School and Campus Trip Management
Yes
0.3%
0.8%
1.5%
26.0%
44%
61.4%
Carsharing
Yes
0.1%
0.3%
0.6%
26.1%
44%
61.6%
Traffic Calming
Yes
0.1%
0.2%
0.4%
26.2%
44%
61.8%
Commuter Financial Incentives
Can it
Will it
Market
Forces
Macro
Policy
Local
Planning
Reduce
climate
change?
No
Yes
Yes
Mitigate
impacts of?
?
?
?
Reduce
climate
change?
No
Maybe
No
Mitigate
impacts of?
?
?
?
US Climate Change Technology Program
Strategic Plan: Transportation Sector
10-20 years
20-40 years
40-60 years
Can it
Will it
Market
Forces
Macro
Policy
Local
Planning
Reduce
climate
change?
No
Yes
Yes
Mitigate
impacts of?
Yes
Yes
Yes
Reduce
climate
change?
No
Maybe
No
Mitigate
impacts of?
?
?
?
Can it
Will it
Market
Forces
Macro
Policy
Local
Planning
Reduce
climate
change?
No
Yes
Yes
Mitigate
impacts of?
Yes
Yes
Yes
Reduce
climate
change?
No
Maybe
No
Mitigate
impacts of?
Yes
Maybe
Maybe
In sum
Separate can from will
 Distinguish mitigate climate change from
mitigate impacts of climate change
 Separate market, policy and planning
 Respect “truths” in judging potential
benefits and outcomes

In sum

Conclusions
Policy greater tool to mitigate climate change.
 Policy, planning may help adjust to climate
change. May need long lead time.
 Market forces may lag – good to help adjust to
but weak ally in mitigating climate change.
