Transcript Risk Assessment and Secnario Development GROUP 3

ACPST/GCSP Professional Training Course
Emerging Threats to Human Security in Africa
Group Work: What Will Be the Greatest
Threats to Human Security in Africa in the
Next 25 Years?
Group 3
Celine, Custodio, Claude, Elias, Hadgembes,
Jaime and Raheemat
11th May 2012
Risk Assessment and Scenario Deve. :
Brainstorming and Frequency Table
1
Religion
S.GBV
Regional
Blocs
Poor Gov
Climate
Change
2
Poor
Gov
Pop Growth
Climate
Change
Inequality
Globalization
3
Poor
Gov
Ethnicity
Religion
Globalization
Climate
Change
4
Env
Security
Food
Security
Community
Security
Political
Security
Organized
Crimes
5
Climate
Change
Poverty,
Diseases
Hunger
Poor
Gov
Demographic
Change
Organized
Crimes
6
Poor
Gov
World Trade
Regime
Trans National Climate
Organized
Change
Crimes
Non Rep of
Africa in UNSC
P5
7
Electoral
Violence
Drug
Trafficking
Piracy
Climate
Change
Terrorism
Top Five Threats
• Poor Governance
• Climate Change ( debate on Env
Management)
• Transnational Organized Crimes
• Unfair World Trade Regime
• Non Representation of Africa in the UNSC
P5
Prioritizing Risks
High
I
M
P
A
C
T
Low
High Impact
Low Probability
High Impact
High Probability
•Trans National Organized Crimes
•Unfair World Trade Regime
•Non Representation in UNSC P5
•Poor Governance
•Climate Change
Low Impact
Low Probability
Low Impact
High Probability
Probability
High
Further Risk Assessment
I
M
P
A
C
T
Very
High
Unfair World
Trade Regime
•Climate
Change
•Poor Gov
High
Non
Representation
of Africa in
UNSC P5
Trans
National
Organized
Crimes
Medium
Low
Very
Low
Unlikely
Probably
Possible
Probability
Likely
Very Likely
Governance vs Climate Change
• Good Governance will reduce the impacts of Climate Change
Important Notes
• Governance: the process of decision-making and the process by
which decisions are implemented (or not implemented).
• Government is one of the actors in governance. Other actors involved
in governance vary depending on the level.
• All actors other than government and the military are grouped
together as part of the "civil society."
• No man is good enough to govern another man without that other's
consent. ~Abraham Lincoln.
• The way people in democracies think of the government as
something different from themselves is a real handicap. And, of
course, sometimes the government confirms their opinion. ~Lewis
Mumford, in Anne Chisholm, Philosophers of the Earth: Conversations
with Ecologists, 1972.
• Freedom would be meaningless without security in the home and in
the streets
Nelson Mandela, April 27 1995
Poor Governance
• Corruption
• Mis-management of
Diversity
• Undemocratic Electoral
Regimes /Transitions
• Religious Radicalism
• Lack of Transparency and
Accountability
• Impunity
• Poor Civil-Military
Relationship
• Visionless leadership
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Foreign Aid Dependency
Economic Dependency
Neo Colonialism
Fiscal Indiscipline
High Underemployment
and Unemployment
Mismanagement of
Demographic Trends
Inequalities (inc Gender)
Mismanagement of the
Environment and
Biodiversity
ETC
Dominant Risk: Poor Governance
Analysis
Local Impact
• Poor Service Delivery
• Weak Govt. Institutions
• Weak Opposition/Low Pol
Participation
• Weak Civil Society
• Under Development
• Instability (Pol. Soc and Econ)
• Conflict
• Impunity/Injustice
• Unemployment and
Underemployment
• Poverty
• Inequalities (inc Gender) etc
Wider Consequences
•
•
•
•
•
•
Lack of Respect
Alienation and
Marginalization
Under Development
Instability
Lack of Credibility
Response
Preventive Measures
National or Multi-lateral
Sensitization/ Political Awareness
of the Public
National
Institutional Reforms
National
Gov and National Budget
Monitoring
National
True Separation of Power
National
Strengthening of Opposition
National and Multi-lateral
Broadening of Political Space
(Good vs Bad People)
National
Constitutional Reforms
National and Multi-lateral
Strengthening and coordination of
AU, RECs and other
Intergovernmental Orgs
National and Multi-lateral
Peer Review and Monitoring
Multi-lateral
The African Challenge
The Challenge
• Despite increasing democracy and stability in sub-Saharan
Africa, corruption and conflict remain serious barriers to
ending extreme poverty on the continent. In addition to the
human and psychological toll corruption and conflict take on
African populations, they also cost money -- the continent
loses around $148 billion each year as a result of corruption
alone (approximately one quarter of the region's GDP) .
Opportunity
• The responsibility and the greatest ability to improve
governance and security lie with Africa's own leaders, but
donor countries also have a role to play in promoting and
supporting accountability, transparency and stability.
AMESEGNALEHU