Transcript CEDM work on climate and weather

Overview of CEDM work on
climate and weather
A1: Water and low carbon energy technology
A2: Hurricane impacts, and DA of modification
A3: Climate change and extreme events
A3.1: Drought
A3.2: Flooding (possibly including US/EU comparison)
A3.3 Implications of force majuere
A4: Economics and other consequences of ocean acidification
A5: Multiple stressors an coastal waters (also context for M2)
I1: CO2 emissions from filling in for variable and intermittent wind and PV
I2: Energy impacts of water desalination
I3: CC and air quality interaction
I4: AC in public spaces during heat waves
S1: Continued studies of the science and economics of SRM and its potential
impacts
S2: Development of strategies for how best to manage knowledge about how
to perform SRM
S3: Continued support and involvement in the broader public discourse on
SRM
2
A1: Water and low carbon energy technology
A2: Hurricane impacts, and DA of modification.
A3: Climate change and extreme events
A3.1: Drought
say just
A3.2: Flooding (possiblyI’ll
including
US/EUacomparison)
A3.3 Implications of force
word
majuere
about Iris’
Then I will
A4: Economics and other consequences
ocean acidification
work onofthis.
elaborate on
A5: a
Multiple stressors an coastal waters (also context for M2)
this and say
I1: CO2 emissions from filling in for variable and intermittent wind and PV
bit more about
our recent I2: Energy impacts of water desalination
I3: CC and air quality interaction
workshop.I4: AC in public spaces during heat waves
S1: Continued studies of the science and economics of SRM and its potential
impacts.
S2: Development of strategies for how best to manage knowledge about how
to perform SRM.
S3: Continued support and involvement in the broader public discourse on
SRM.
3
Southwest US drought variability: Cold vs warm Pacific
Polar Jet Stream
L
Warm
H
Blocking high
pressure
Pacific Jet Stream
Wet
Warm East Pacific: El Niño
or PDO+ phase
Cold
Wet
Variable/weaker
Pacific Jet Stream
Polar Jet Stream
Dry
Warm
Cold East Pacific: La Niña
or PDO- phase
4
To investigate variability in precipitation with the
PDO, Iris has focused on Arizona and New Mexico.
• The impact of the PDO on precipitation varies
with other climate patterns: ENSO, the Atlantic
Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) and the PNA.
• A clear distinction of the PDO signal in rainfall
data may be hindered by the changing role of the
PDO over the course of the year. Precipitation
during winter and the Moonsoon season depend
on very different processes that are differently
impacted by the PDO.
Considering these factors, she has done a drought
projection for the next two decades.
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The impacts for the current negative PDO phase are
projected to be 1.6 times as large as the impacts of the
A1B Scenario on P-E during 2020-2040 when evaluated
according to the GPCC dataset, and about equal to the
impacts of the A1B Scenario when evaluated according
to the CRU dataset.
This means that if future impacts of the PDO on
precipitation are comparable to past impacts, the effect of
the current negative PDO will at least double the
expected impacts of global warming until 2030.
The projected precipitation impacts of the combination of
a negative PDO phase with a positive AMO phase are
about twice as large as the impacts of the A1B Scenario
on P-E during 2020-2040 when evaluated according to
the GPCC dataset, and about equal to the impacts of the
A1B Scenario when evaluated according to the CRU
dataset.
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S3: Continued support and involvement
in the broader public discourse on SRM
October 2011:
BPC report on
U.S. research
March 2011:
SRMGI Kavli Center
June 2011: Lima IPCC expert meeting on
geoengineering
Jan 2012
Jan 2011
January 2011: La Jolla
IGBP workshop
on ecosystem
impacts of
geoengineering
Paper now in press
at AMBIO
SRMGI
August 2011:
Second multiuniversity summer
study program for
graduate students
and other young
investigators held
at Banff
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S2: Development of strategies for how best
to manage knowledge
about how to perform
SRM
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