Transcript Climate Change - Not Just Hot Air

Water Balances and Climate Change
Bruce Peachey, P.Eng., MCIC
President, New Paradigm Engineering
Ltd.
U of A - Chem Eng Student Night
March 23, 2004
Areas to Cover
Chemical Engineers and Climate Change
 Global Water Balance
 North American Water Use and Impacts
 Evidence for Regional Water Impacts
 Evidence for Local Water Impacts
 Our Role for the Future

Chemical Engineers & Climate
Change
 Edmonton Section meetings on
Climate Change
• Jan, 1998 - Kyoto impacts discussed
• May, 2000 - Proposed 7 potential sources of
climate change
• Feb, 2002 - New IPCC data review supported
Human Enhanced Water Evaporation (HEWE)
as the most likely
2002 Discussion Paper Circulated
 Dec, 2003 Presentation to CMOS

Water Balances and Climate Change
Familiar to chemical engineers
 Climate changes mainly water and
energy

• Air can’t carry much energy without water
Proposed that Human Enhanced Water
Evaporation (HEWE) rather than GHG
Warming is the main cause of Climate
Change
 Water Balances can potentially be used
to prove which theory is correct

Global Water Cycle (km3 x 103/yr =
Tt/yr)
Source: Global Warming – The Complete Briefing – John Houghton
40
71
111
425
Land
385
Ocean
40
Latest Data Indicates
Globally atmospheric GHGs are up
 Globally average temperatures are higher

• Northern Hemisphere higher especially last 10
years
• Night-time lows increasing more than day-time
highs
• More over land than over oceans.
• Cooling in some areas of southern hemisphere
and Antarctica

Growing Season – Increase by 1 to 4 days
per decade in northern hemisphere
Latest Data Indicates

Precipitation increases (5-10%) over most
land areas in mid to high latitudes of
Northern Hemisphere
• No observed increase in southern hemisphere
• Correlated to increases in clouds and extreme
weather.

Heavy precipitation events increased in
northern latitudes
• Likely a 2 to 4% increase in the frequency of
heavy precipitation events in last 50 years in
Northern Hemisphere
Latest Data Indicates
Atmospheric Water Vapour Increased
in Northern Hemisphere by several
percent per decade
 Cloud cover in Northern Hemisphere
increased by 2%
• Positively correlated with decrease in

diurnal temperature range (night-time
warming)
Latest Data Indicates

Sea-Ice in Northern Hemisphere
decreasing
• No trends in Antarctic sea ice apparent.
Non-polar glaciers – Widespread retreat
except in coastal areas.
 El Nino Events – More frequent, persistent
and intense over the last 30 years

The Big
Question?
Where did all the extra
water come
from???????

•GHG Warming of Oceans?
•HEWE on Land?
•Somewhere else???
Water Balance just GHG Warming?
+42 - 38
+4
+4
40
71
111
425
Land
385
Ocean
40
+4
Oceans should be
affected the most
Closing the Balance with HEWE
40
+4
71
111
425
385
+4
Land
Land should be
affected the most
Ocean
40
World Precipitation Trend = +2% avg since 1900;
= +2000 Gt/yr avg over 100 years
Source: IPCC Scientific Report
Annual Global Water Withdrawals
Cubic Kilometers (Gt/yr)
Source: Scientific American – February 2001 – Peter H. Gleick
5000
4500
4000
3500
3000
2500
2000
1500
1000
500
0
1900
=+2% Increase avg precip
over the last 100 years
1920
1940
1960
1980
Original Chart showed cubic miles x 4.6 to get cubic kilometers
2000
Northern Hemisphere Mid-Latitude
Water Vapour Concentrations
1981-1994Oltmans and Hoffman, Nature, 375
(1995)
Altitude
(km)
10-12
12-14
14-16
16-18
18-20
20-22
22-24
Conc (ppm) Avg Annual
Increase
(%)
59.2
1.03
11.88
0.49
4.66
0.54
3.87
0.73
3.85
0.84
4.07
0.54
4.21
0.38
How Does HEWE Theory Fit the
Facts?
 Source is anthropogenic and
increasing
 Should cause increased warming in
cold areas.
 Should cause increased rainfall and
severity of storms  Unusual patterns
 Increases night time low temperatures
due to day/night cycling as dew point
is raised
580
710
328
610
709
174
128
30
14
World Water Withdrawals = 3414 Gt/yr + 25% evap. from dam
Source: World Resources Institute 2003
Feeding Antarctic Ice Loss?
Antarctic Peninsula - Sciam
Dec’02
“The only part of Antarctica
Irrigation In SA
•Feeding energy
and water onto
the peninsula?
•Only 1000km
and carried by
prevailing winds
and ocean
currents
certain to have been affected by
global warming”
Ice sheet
has
disappeared
at least
once in
600,00 yrs
No Effect Stable for
15 million
years
North American Water Use
Mainly Used for Power Generation in the
U.S. and Canada; followed by Irrigation
 Patterns of water use vary by region
 Amount of Natural Renewable Water
Resource Withdrawals

• Canada - 1.4%
• United States - 25.6%
• Mexico - 18.1%
• (NB Not including water reservoir evaporation)
U.S. Water Use - 1995
Total = 556 Gt/yr = 12% of World Use
7%
1%
11%
47%
33%
Power
Irrigation
Public
Industry
Livestock
Regional Indicators of Water
Impacts

Weekend rainfall (Cerveny and Balling 1998)
• Rainfall 22% higher on Saturdays on East Coast
• Lowest on Sunday to Tuesday

Workweek temperature effects (Forster and
Solomon 2003)
• Diurnal Temperature Ranges weekly variations

Three days after 9/11 - Lower night time
temperatures
• Attributed to radiative impacts of airplane
contrails
• However, other things were also not happening
The Heat Pipe Effect
Day/Night Cycles
Water Transport
Water added in Hot Dry Areas
Water gives
Up Heat and
Falls
In Cold Areas
Workweek Effects - Forster and
Solomon
Sciam September 16, 2003
Red - Night-time temperatures lower on weekdays
Blue - Night-time temperatures lower on weekends
Air can travel
1000’s km/day.
Water molecule
on average spend
10 days in the air
Work Week Water Pulse?
Time delay in the heat pipe?
Canadian Water Use - 1996
Total = 44.72 Gt/yr = 1.4% of Supply
12%
1%
9%
14%
64%
Thermal Power
Manufacturing
Agriculture
Municiple
Mining
NB Hydroelectric supplies 62% of energy demand
Water Withdrawals by Province
(Gt/yr)
2.8
3.5
3.8
6.5
Atlantic
Quebec
Ontario
Prairies
B.C.
28.3
NB Does not include evaporation
from hydroelectric reservoirs
Feeding Energy to Melt the Glaciers
& Warm/Dry Out the Prairies?
Summer
Water
Pulse?
N.B. 44% of Alberta’s and 30% of B.C.’s water use on an annual basis
Irrigation - But all of it is emitted in the summer months! 5 Gt/yr
1 tonne of water vapour condensing to water
can melt 6.7 tonnes of snow or ice
Alberta Water Balance?
Precipitation
= 337 Gt/yr
Evaporation
= 261 Gt/yr
Net Surface
Runoff Added
= 61 Gt/yr
River Flows In
= 70 Gt/yr
Alta Water Use:
9.4 Gt/yr + res evap
16+% of Avail
•80% of Avail in North
•<20% of use is in North
•Alta uses 50% of water
In S. Saskatchewan Riv
River Flows Out
Source: Alta Env David Trew
= 131 Gt/yr
March 22, 2004
*Groundwater Recharge????
= 15 Gt/yr
Local Effects? - Lightning “Bright
Sky, Dirty City?” Sciam May 2001



Increased lightning
in areas centered
on large refining
complexes.
Attributed to
pollution seeding
cloud formation
But…Largest
emission from
refineries is water
vapour
Is this Aerosols or Water???
This is definitely water!
Do nuclear plants cause lightning as well?
The Balance of Evidence Says...



Human Enhanced Water Evaporation
(HEWE) SHOULD BE THE major factor
in Climate Change Equation
GHG impacts may still be a concern
and are an indicator of energy waste
so should still be reduced by reducing
energy use
Finding the right solutions means
addressing the right problem.
HEWE – Implications

Agriculture Industry
• Improvements needed in irrigation practices
• Select crops that suit the local climate

Electrical Power Industry
• Reduce power use; S/D nuclear (206 vs. 140 l/kwhr)
• Increase efficiency from 40% to 80% with cogen
• Reduce Water Use

Some responses to GHG make HEWE
worse
• Dams, water transfers south, biomass energy,
Does It Matter Which Theory is
Right?
 Likely no theory is entirely right.
 Best strategy is to find “Robust
Solutions” which:
• Minimize Water added to
atmosphere
• Reduce Energy Waste  Fossil Fuel
Consumption  Reduce GHG
emissions
• Create Wealth (improve standard of
living - current and future)
New Paradigms? Not
Really

Sustainable Development is based on:

Reduce
• Waste of energy, water and other resources on trivial
wants so they are there when future generations need
them.

Reuse – Resources more than once

Recycle – If you can’t do the first two.

Replace – Feel good placebo in last place. Wasting
“Renewable” Power is still a waste of resources
• Is it really green?
The Challenge for
ChemE’s
Lobby to get someone studying Human
Enhanced Water Evaporation impacts on
climate and local weather (CMOS?)
 Encourage discussing HEWE in public
forums or with governments
 Ensure the right actions are taken rather
than the politically correct or expedient
ones
 "Difference of opinion leads to inquiry, and
inquiry leads to truth" - Thomas Jefferson

Let’s Keep the Water Balanced!
Contact Information
New Paradigm Engineering Ltd.
10444 - 20 Avenue
Edmonton, Alberta
Canada T6J 5A2
tel: 780.448-9195
email: [email protected]
web: www.newparadigm.ab.ca