Transcript PPT - Low-Carbon Society Research Project

Aligning Climate Change and
Sustainable Development Policies
P.R. Shukla
Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad, India
([email protected])
Presentation for the COP12 and COP/MOP2 side-event
“Global Challenges toward Low-Carbon Society (LCS) through Sustainable Development (SD)”
Nairobi, Kenya, November 8, 2006
Aligning Climate Change and Sustainable Development Policies
Why should “Development and Climate” actions be aligned?
 Climate change is a derivative problem of development
 Development is the key to mitigative and adaptive capacities
 Dealing with climate change exclusively is very expensive &
expected to cost several trillion dollars over this century
 Strategies for dealing with sustainable development and
climate change have many common elements, and aligning
these would deliver co-benefits
Aligning Climate Change and Sustainable Development Policies
Aligning Development and Climate by Shifting the Frontier
Climate Quality
Economic/social Indicator
National Development Targets
Economic/social Indicator
Climate Goal
Technology & Institutional
Innovations; Co-benefits
Climate Quality
Overcoming Conflict by Shifting the “frontier” though:
•
•
•
•
•
Innovations in technology & institutions
Targeted technology innovations, investment and deployment
Aligning diverse interests of multiple stakeholder
Sequence of policies and measures to accrue co-benefits
International and regional cooperation
Aligning Climate Change and Sustainable Development Policies
Mainstreaming Climate Change in National Development
MDG, India’s National Targets and Climate Change
MDG and global targets
India’s National plan targets
Interface with Climate Change
Goal 1: Eradicate extreme poverty and
hunger
• Double the per capita income by 2012
Targets: Halve, between 1990 and 2015,
the proportion of people with income
below $1 a day and those who suffer from
hunger
• Income effect would enhance
choices for cleaner fuels and
adaptive capacity
• Contain population growth to 16.2%
between 2001-2011
Goal 7: Ensure environmental
sustainability
• Increase in forest cover to 25% by 2007 and
33% by 2012 (from 23% in 2001)
Targets: Integrate SD principles in country
policies/ programs to reverse loss of
environmental resources
• Sustained access to potable drinking water
to all villages by 2007
Target: Halve by 2015 the proportion of
people without sustainable access to safe
drinking water
• Reduce poverty ratio by 15% by 2012
• Electrify 80,000 additional villages by 2012
via decentralized sources
• Cleaning of all major polluted rivers by
2007 and other notified stretches by 2012
Aligning Climate Change and Sustainable Development Policies
• Reduce GHG Emissions due to
lower population
• Enhanced sink capacity, reduced
GHG and local emissions; lower
fossil imports; reduced pressure on
land, resources and ecosystems
• Higher adaptive capacity to from
enhanced supply of water, health &
education in rural areas
Influencing Energy Transitions
Percentage of Primary Energy Consumption
80%
How to transit to
Modern Biomass?
60%
Food Security?
Traditional
Biomass
40%
Domestic Resource: +ve
Coal Direct Employment: +ve
Oil
20%
Fuel Supply?
Waste disposal? Nuclear
Safety?
0%
1952
1960
1970
1980
1990
Energy Security: -ve
Foreign Exchange: -ve
En. Security:
+Ve
Geopolitical Risk: High
Gas Foreign Exchange: -ve
Hydro
2001
Regional water disputes?
Indirect Benefits
Aligning Climate Change and Sustainable Development Policies
South-Asia Energy Cooperation
Integrated South-Asia Energy Market
Spillover Benefits:
• 16 MW additional Hydropower
• Flood control
• Lower energy prices would enhance
competitiveness of regional industries
Benefit (Saving) Cumulative
$ Billion
% GDP
from 2010 to 2030
Energy
60 Exa Joule
321
0.87
CO2 Equiv.
5.1 Billion Ton
28
0.08
SO2
50 Million Ton
10
0.03
359
0.98
Total
Aligning Climate Change and Sustainable Development Policies
CO2 Emissions Saved by Electricity Reforms
1.10
Baselines of Carbon Content of Electricity
Fossil Electricity w/o Reforms
Fossil Electricity with Reforms
Kg (Carbon Dioxide) / KWh
0.90
Total Electricity w/o Reforms
Cumulative CO2 not Emitted:
140 million ton
Total Electricity with Reforms
0.70
0.50
1990
1992
1994
1996
Aligning Climate Change and Sustainable Development Policies
1998
2000
2001
Sustainable Development & Climate: Impacts on Infrastructure
Monsoon Rainfall (2050)
Maintenance Cost Curve
Increase in Climate Intensity and Variability
Probability of Occurrence
Change
Presentlimate
C
More number of
days with >200
mm rainfall
Very high
number of days
with >200 mm
rainfall
Less number
of
days with >200
mm rainfall
Light and
spread
-over rain
Future Climate
Heavy and
Number of days with concentrated rain
> 200mm rainfall
Aligning Climate Change and Sustainable Development Policies
Repair and Maintenance Costs
Increase in mean and variability due to Climate
2000
Cost with adverse Climate
Change and Deforestation
Cost with adverse
Climate Change
Conventional
Bath-Tub Curve
2020
2040
2060
2080
2100
Conclusions
 Opportunities to mainstream climate concerns in
development actions exist everywhere; and more so in
developing countries.
 Climate centric actions could miss opportunities which
may deliver development and climate co-benefits.
 Pathways to “Low Carbon” and “Climate Resistant”
societies are best found if viewed through the
sustainability lens.
 Cost-effective transition to Low Carbon Society is not
automatic. It would require crafting strategies that align
development and climate policies and actions through
sustainability goals.
Aligning Climate Change and Sustainable Development Policies