Transcript Climate Change Finance and Aid

More than Polar Bears
The Human Impact of Climate Change
Mark Fried
Oxfam Canada
April 2009
Laila Begum, Bangladesh
“20 or 30 years ago we
could understand from
the water temperature
and the wind direction
if the flood was going
to come... Before it was
mostly monsoon
flooding in July or
August, but now the
rains are continuing
into October”
Disasters in 2007
•
Africa: biggest floods in three decades, affecting
23 countries and 2 million people
•
Nepal, India and Bangladesh: worst flooding in
living memory, affecting 248 million people
•
C.A., Mexico and Caribbean: two category 5
hurricanes plus several tropical storms, affecting
1.5 million people
Numbers of reported disasters
UN ISDR in Disaster Risk Reduction, 2007 Global
Overview
Expected climate impacts
in agricultural
communities:
• Higher temperatures
• Less rainfall
• More erratic rainfall
• Heavier rain
• More flash floods
• Less fresh groundwater
• Loss of vegetation
• More hurricanes and storms
Women produce much of the family’s food
• on marginal lands
• without irrigation
• using saved seeds
• with no formal training
• without access to credit
They provide the household water
In rural areas,
women and girls
walk on average
six kilometres
every day,
carrying up to
20 litres of water
And the household fuel supply
They cook, clean and care for the sick
…all the while caring for children
…and for no payment.
The impacts of climate change call for…
1. Mitigation:
cut global emissions
to stay far below 2oC
of global warming
2. Adaptation:
build people’s
resilience to
now-unavoidable
impacts
What’s needed for mitigation?
Massive emissions cuts in rich
countries
• 40% below 1990 by 2020
• 90-100% below 1990 by 2050
Lower emissions in
poor countries
• supported by
technology, financing
and capacity-building
Where they stand
in UN negotiations
EU: binding 20% below 1990 by 2020; 30% if global
deal
US: voluntary 0% below 1990
Canada: 20% below 2006 by 2020 = 2% above 1990
levels
G77/China: rich countries cut first and most
Small Island States: rich must cut 40% below 1990
by 2020
Comparing facts on key countries in 2003
(most recent comparable data)
US
China
EU
India
Canada
% of world’s
CO2 emissions
22%
17%
15%
4%
2.3%
% of world
population
5%
21%
7%
17%
0.45%
Per Capita CO2 emissions
Country
Population
(millions)
Total
Emissions
(million tons)
Per capita
emissions
(tons)
Canada
32
639
19.7
US
291
5,778
19.8
EU
456
4,003
8.78
China
1,290
497
3.49
India
1,060
1,148
1.08
Greenhouse Gases Per Capita
Canada uses 9 planets worth
Cumulative Emissions
•
23 richest countries (14% of global population)
• responsible for 60% of accumulated
emissions
•
China (20% of global population)
• just 8% of emissions currently in
atmosphere
How can we reduce GHG emissions?
•
•
Put a price on carbon
• Carbon Trading OR Carbon Tax
• $50 rising to $75 per ton
• State/provincial plan price is $3.60
• Europe was €31, now €9 ($15)
Mandate most reductions be domestic,
rather than bought in poor countries
What is adaptation?
Impactspecific
response
Building
adaptive capacity
Climate-proofing
investments
Development as usual
What will adaptation cost for all
developing countries?
•
Oxfam:
$50bn + per year
If that seems high…
•
UNFCCC
$28-67bn per year (2030)
•
UNDP
$86bn per year
(2015)
Where will the money come from?
•
From general tax revenue
• Dependent yearly on political will
•
From tax on carbon offsets
• Not likely to generate enough
•
From % of auction of carbon rights
• Best bet
Who should pay?
UNFCCC Treaty says countries should contribute on
the basis of their…
“common but differentiated responsibilities
and respective capabilities”
Oxfam’s Adaptation Financing Index:
•
Responsibility: CO2 emissions since 1992
•
Capability: HDI score
•
To achieve fairness and simplicity
How much from which countries?
US
EU
Japan
Canada
Australia
Korea
44%
32%
13%
4%
3%
2%
TOTAL for these
six countries:
98% of total cost
Canada’s fair contribution to financing
adaptation
•
•
•
4.3% of a total cost of
$50 billion annually
$2.15 billion each year
$72 per year per
Canadian = $1.40/week
= a cup of coffee a week
For more information:
www.oxfam.ca