Transcript The-Science-of-Climate-Change with notes

The Science of Climate
Change
J.C. Moore PhD
Retired Physical Chemist
JCMooreonline.com
Earth’s Energy Balance
CO2 and Climate
• Arrhenius (1897) – Halving CO2 will lead to an ice age,
doubling it will warm Earth by 4 to 7oC
• G.N. Plass (1956) - Doubling the amount of CO2 will
raise Earth’s temperature by 3 to 4 oC
• J.T. Kiehl (1997) - Under Clear Skies, CO2 accounts for
26% of the Greenhouse Effect
• A. Lacis (2010) – Greenhouse gases account for 25% of
the Greenhouse Effect, CO2 is the “Control Knob” for the
Earth’s Temperature
CO2 for Last 1000 Years
NASA Data
Last Decade Has Been Warmest in Last 130 Years
New Record set in 2014
Arctic Ice
Ice Volume Is More Important
Sea Level Rise
Ocean Acidification
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We emit 30 billion tons of CO2 annually
The oceans takes up about 40%
CO2 in water makes carbonic acid
Oceans have become >20% more acidic
It is harder for phytoplankton, coral, and
crustaceans to make shells
• Phytoplankton support ocean life as they
convert CO2 to O2
CO2 and Plants
• Plants require water, CO2, nitrogen,
phosphorous, potassium, sunlight, and trace
elements
• CO2 is seldom the limiting agent in plant growth
• Greenhouses add CO2 just to replace depleted
CO2
• Over-fertilizing, over-watering, or putting a
shade plant in bright sun will harm the plant
• More CO2 is not necessarily better in most
cases
Increasing CO2 and Plants
• Some plants will thrive – but not all
• Ancient plant have adapted to varying
levels of 180 ppm to 1000+ ppm
• Modern plants have adapted to ~ 280 ppm
• Wild plants will adapt faster - Kudzu,
Poison Ivy, Ragweed, Red Rice, Weeds
Agricultural Plants
• Wheat grown at higher CO2 levels produce more grains
but smaller grains - lower in nitrogen
• Wheat pasture is unaffected by higher CO2 levels if
sufficient nitrogen is available
• Otherwise, higher CO2 leads to lower nitrogen uptake
and poorer pasture
• Rice benefits from higher CO2 levels but produces less
at higher temperatures
• Rice production is declining in some parts of the world –
it is a staple for > 50% of world
• Higher temperatures and CO2 levels are not necessarily
better for plants and may be detrimental
Temperature and Plants
• Tomatoes will not set blossoms if night
temperatures are above 70 0F
• Fruit trees and other plants may blossom early –
harmed by later freezes
• Some fruit varieties require a number of days
below freezing to be productive
• Pests such as fleas, ticks, spider mites,
mosquitoes, squash bugs, pine borers… thrive
• Increase in pine borer populations have killed 30
billion trees
• Many diseases thrive at higher temperatures
Future Food Production
Weather
• “All weather events are affected by climate
change because the environment in which they
occur is warmer and moister than it used to
be…. ” – Kevin Trenberth
• Climate change may not be the “cause” of a
weather event, but it increases the probability
that it will be more severe
• Warmer temperatures increase both the rate of
evaporation and amount of moisture in the air.
• This has doubled the incidence of severe
weather, floods, droughts, and wildfires.
Munich Re Data
Scientific Consensus
• The American Chemical Society statement: “Careful and
comprehensive scientific assessments have clearly
demonstrated that the Earth’s climate system is
changing rapidly in response to growing atmospheric
burdens of greenhouse gases and absorbing aerosol
particles. There is very little room for doubt that
observed climate trends are due to human activities.
The threats are serious and action is urgently
needed to mitigate the risks of climate change. “
• Over 97% of the active climate scientists agree
• All of the World’s major science societies have
adopted similar statements.
Second Opinion
Coal Use
Coal
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Coal is 65 to 95% carbon
Pollutants produced are mercury,
cadmium, arsenic, lead,
sulfur oxides, nitrogen oxides, CO2,
particulates, and radioactive isotopes of
radon.
Coal
• Impurities from coal combustion and the
coal ash end up in the air and water
• Toxic levels of mercury are now found in
fish, even where natural sources are not
available
• We are now emitting 150 times as much
CO2 as all the worlds volcanoes
• Cutting Coal Use Is Imperative
Actions
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Conservation
New Technology
IPCC – Switch to Renewables ASAP
Regulation
Cap and Trade
Carbon Tax
Carbon Dividend
Republican Leaders
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Teddy Roosevelt – Greatly expanded National Park System
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Dwight Eisenhower -set aside 9 million acres as the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge
- one of the most pristine wilderness areas in the United States
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Richard Nixon - created the EPA - “Clean air, clean water, open spaces — these
should once again be the birthright of every American.” “The price of economic
growth need not and will not be deterioration in the quality of our lives and our
surroundings.”
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Barry Goldwater, “Mr. Conservative”,-“While I am a great believer in the free
enterprise system and all that it entails, I am an even stronger believer in the
right of our people to live in a clean and pollution-free environment.”
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Ronald Reagan – Signed Montreal Protocol reducing CFC’s, Used cap-and- trade to reduce acid
rain blowing into Canada- at less cost than even the government predicted
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John McCain – Proposed a sound energy policy based on good stewardship, sound science, and
reasonableness