Transcript Env-Mgmt-Assoc-20NOv2010

Consultation Forum on Hong Kong’s Climate
Change Strategy and Action Agenda
J Robert Gibson
[email protected]
20th November 2010
AGENDA
A)Government
proposal
B)HK Government
consultation points
C)IEA WEO 2010
(9 Nov 2010)
D) Key questions:
1. GHG reduction target
for 2020 and 2030.
2. Fuel mix: Gas or
Nuclear?
3. Waste: incinerator or
landfill?
4. How much building
energy efficiency?
Respond by 10th Dec
2
A) What is the Government proposing?
BEWARE: Rough estimate as consultation document provides few numbers
Greenhouse gas emissions
2009 per 2020 with
('000 tonnes CO2-e)
Annex 3
'BAU'
Electricity generation
28,208
30,758
Transport
7,350
8,014
Other end use of fuel
2,850
3,108
Waste
2,160
2,355
Industrial processes and product use
1,590
1,734
Agriculture, forestry and other land use
29
32
Total
42,187
46,000
2020 with Saving
reduction
from
%
% of the
programme
BAU
saving saving
11,983 18,775 61.0%
95.5%
7,614
401
5.0%
2.0%
3,108
0
0.0%
0.0%
1,865
490 20.8%
2.5%
1,734
0
0.0%
0.0%
32
0
0.0%
0.0%
26,335 19,665 42.8% 100.0%
9.0%
Data from Government consultation document
Assumptions made
1) The split of 2020 emissions under BAU is proportional to the 2009 split
2) Electricity reduction per below
3) Transport saving 5% - NB No factual basis for this.
4) No savings in other categories.
3
What is the Government proposing?
BEWARE: Rough estimate as consultation document provides few numbers
CO2e/
2009 estimate
kWh
M kWh 000k CO2e
mix
Coal
1.000
24,048
24,048
53.2%
Gas
0.400
10,401
4,160
23.0%
Nuclear
0.040
10,773
431
23.8%
Waste to energy Note 1
Wind
0.020
Solar
Less emissions outside Hong Kong
(431)
45,222
28,208 100.0%
Emissions reduction compared to 2009
Electricity increase per BAU
Less efficiency per next page
Net increase
2020 projection
M kWh 000k CO2e mix
4,590
4,590 10.0%
18,358
7,343 40.0%
21,880
875 47.7%
508
1.1%
560
11
1.2%
0.0%
(875)
45,896
11,944 100.0%
-57.7%
9.6%
-7.4%
1.5%
Note 1: emissions from waste to energy counted as part of emissions from waste rather than
electricity generation.
Sources of information
Mix in 2009 and 2020 per figure 8 adjusted for CLP/HKEC information where available
Carbon intensity of electricity per figure 7 adjusted for CLP/HKEC information where available
The total consumption in 2020 is guessed at 5% below the BAU projection.
4
B) Government’s “Key” consultation points
Government question:
1. Do you notice more extreme weather in Hong
Kong?
2. Should Hong Kong adopt a carbon intensity target?
3 . Should we conserve energy and use greener
transport? What can business/individuals do?
4. Is the proposed fuel mix OK given environment,
availability, reliability and cost considerations?
5. Do you agree to target a 50 – 60% reduction in
carbon intensity by 2020 (from 2005)?
6. Do you support the Government’s proposals for
achieving the carbon intensity reduction target?
7. Should Hong Kong work with the PRD to be a
leading areas of low carbon prosperity in China?
8. Do you know enough about climate change?
What will you do about it?
9. Will climate change impact the vulnerable areas
as identified in this consultation paper? Is the
proposed response OK?
Response:
1. Yes: (Can’t tell by my own senses but can see the
change from the HKO’s statistics.)
2. Yes.
3. Yes. We need regulation to end the ‘phoney war’
4. Yes (NB: Gas vs Nuclear controversy)
5. Yes. We should also have a 2030 target. This will
show we need both radical energy efficiency
and additional nuclear.
6. Yes except we should have more action on
building energy efficiency.
7. Yes.
8. I know enough to conclusde urgent action is
required. Much further study is required to win
the climate war
9. Yes
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C) The IEA’s WEO 2010
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7
8
9
10
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D) Key question 1: GHG reduction target?
Key points:
• Do you believe the climate science?
• What change is required to current policy
direction to avoid destabilising climate?
Answer:
• Climate science is clear enough to know we
must make drastic reductions in emissions.
• The 50-60% target is good for 2020 but much
more is needed for 2030
13
Key question 2: Fuel mix – Gas or
Nuclear?
14
Key question 2: Fuel mix – Gas or
Nuclear?
Key considerations:
• Environmental impact
• Security of supply (Availability and reliability)
• Safety (risk to human life)
• Cost
Answer:
• Support the 2020 proposal (50% nuclear, 40% gas,
3% renewable and 7% coal)
• Must increase renewable to replace gas in longer
term. Gas will be needed for fertiliser and large
vehicles.
15
Key question 3: Incinerator or landfill?
Key considerations :
• Environmental impact
• Safety (risk to human life)
• Cost
Answer: Use incinerators as:
• Technology safe.
• Reduced GHG emissions
• Shortage of landfill space.
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Key question 4: How much building
energy efficiency?
Key consideration: Cost
Answer: Much more can and should be done:
• WBCSD’s Energy Efficiency in Buildings study
suggest 52% reduction with 10 year payback if
US$60/barrel oil and US$40/tonne CO2.
• Key additional measures:
– Transparent labelling of actual building energy
consumption
– Revenue neutral tax switch from property to energy.
• Creates jobs and boosts Hong Kong’s economy
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AGENDA
A)Government
proposal
B)HK Government
consultation points
C)IEA WEO 2010
(9 Nov 2010)
D) Key questions:
1. GHG reduction target
for 2020 and 2030.
2. Fuel mix: Gas or
Nuclear?
3. Waste: incinerator or
landfill?
4. How much building
energy efficiency?
Respond by 10th Dec
18