Transcript PresentationMNikolova

Climate friendly policies in times of crisis
An overview of the ‘green’ character of national recovery
plans in Europe
Mariya Nikolova, ETUI
Overview of the presentation
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Making the case for green measures as part of the national
recovery packages
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Recommended size and nature of green measures
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Green fiscal stimulus in the EU: EERP, FR, GE, IT
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Concluding remarks
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climate friendly policies in the national stimulus packages
The case for green measures as part of national recovery plans
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While global economy is in serious but temporary decline,
climate change poses a permanent and much more severe
risk to human development and prosperity
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Wide-spread consensus that current crisis and
governments’ involvement in recovery initiatives represent
unique opportunity to tackle both challenges at the same
time
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climate friendly policies in the national stimulus packages
Recommended size and nature of green measures
How much should be allocated to ‘green’ initiatives in the stimulus
packages?
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According to N. Stern around 20% of total spending should be directed
to ‘green’ measures over the next year
UN Green Economy Initiative calls on high income OECD countries to
spend at least 1% of GDP to reduce carbon dependency over the next
two years
Authors Ecofys/Germanwatch study opt for at least half of the stimulus
packages to be devoted to low carbon investments
→ So far, only 15% of the total of the announced fiscal stimuli by the G20
governments is dedicated to green measures
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climate friendly policies in the national stimulus packages
Recommended size and nature of green measures
What kind of ‘green’ policies should be supported?
● No consensus on what actually is a ‘good’ green investment
● Some criteria & results:
● Edenhofer & Stern: speed of decision and implementation, large
multiplier effect and long-term climate benefits
→ Improving energy efficiency, upgrading the physical infrastructure and
supporting clean technology markets
● Ecofys/Germanwatch’ Effectiveness factor based on ST and LT
considerations:
→ Renewables, following by energy efficiency score best / low interest
loans are best instruments
● Grantham Institute: timeliness, targeting of measures, time-limitedness
→ Energy efficiency measures come out first, followed by renewables
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climate friendly policies in the national stimulus packages
Green fiscal stimulus in the EU
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Overview of the ‘green’ measures included in the
economic stimulus packages of the EU, FR, GE, and IT
Some of the findings are based on TURI survey for report
on the fiscal packages
Comparison of assessments given to these policies by two
main reports (HSBC and Ecofys/Germanwatch)
Vast differences in evaluation between HSBC and
Ecofys/Germanwatch reports due to different methodology
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climate friendly policies in the national stimulus packages
European Economic Recovery Plan (EERP)
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Announced in November 2008: 200bn euro in total whereas 30bn directly from
EU budget and the EIB
● Focus of climate friendly measures is on investments for energy and climate
change related infrastructure, energy efficiency in buildings, ‘green products’,
research and innovation to stimulate development of clean technologies for
cars and construction through PPPs
● According to HSBC: this amounts to 64% of the total EU stimulus
● However:
→ so far, only 5bn euro stimulus package is actually agreed (March 2009) among
others devoted to renewables, the electric grid and CCS, out of which only
33% is effectiveness adjusted expenditure (Ecofys/Germanwatch)
→ the share of combined Commission and national MS funds comes down to less
than 10% (HSBC)
→ total EU green spending represents only around 11% of the global total green
investments
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France
‘Revival Plan’ adopted in December 2008
● Green measures:
Investment in renewables, energy efficiency of buildings,
local public transport and railway infrastructure, quality and
security of electricity distribution and regional electricity
grids
● HSBC report: 21,2% share of green measures, highest in
EU
● Ecofys/Germanwatch: only around 6% effectiveness
adjusted expenditure because positive incentives are to a
large part offset by negative ones
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Germany
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Stimulus plan adopted in November 2008 and in February
2009 (biggest fiscal recovery programme in Europe)
Green measures: focus on energy efficiency in both private
and public buildings as well as in transport
Government estimates that 18% of total packages is
‘green’
Ecofys/Germanwatch: 15% (includes measure outside
stimulus packages aimed at extending low-interest loans
for off-shore wind parks) , HSBC: 13,2%
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climate friendly policies in the national stimulus packages
Italy
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After the Emergency Package adopted in November 2008,
three subsequent legislative acts in reaction to the crisis
were passed in January, February and March 2009
Green measures: only covering the transport sector (local
public transport, railway system, subsidies for efficient
vehicles without emission) and energy efficiency in
buildings
HSBC: 1,3% (based on November and January
legislation), Ecofys/Germanwatch (based only on 2009
legislation): - 6% due to predominantly negative incentives
i.e. construction of new roads
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climate friendly policies in the national stimulus packages
Overview
Diverging assessments of the green measures' part as % of total
stimulus package
IT
E/G
GE
HSBC
FR
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
% of total stimulus
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Concluding remarks I
Positive aspects:
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Although stimulus packages quite divergent, energy
efficiency measures with a focus on buildings (about 1/3 of
all investments) can be found in almost all European
recovery plans – rated first according to most criteria of a
‘good’ green investment in the current crisis
Underinvestment in renewables but foundations already in
place in Europe as a.o. a reaction to the energy crisis in
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Concluding remarks II
Negative aspects:
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Almost all studies conclude that the green stimulus so far is not
enough to lay the foundations for a low carbon economy in Europe
Short-term objectives and decidedly non-green aspects such as
intensified investment in road infrastructure and new cars purchasing
without making fuel efficiency at a certain high level a necessary
condition can lock in non-sustainable technologies and practices
In Europe (10%) the green stimulus is smaller than those of SK (80%),
Australia (40%), China (34%), Japan (15%) and the US (12%) and
even the world average (appr. 15%)
The current crisis could delay progress on environmental policies
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