Transcript Clive James presentation

ISAAA
Global Perspective of Biotech/GM
Crops and Future Prospects
2010 - 15th Anniversary of Commercialization
International Service for the Acquisition
of Agri-biotech Applications (ISAAA)
http://www.isaaa.org
Overview of Presentation
Few introductory/contextual slides
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ADOPTION, first 15 years, 1996 - 2010
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IMPACT of Biotech crops
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FUTURE – 2011 – 2015 (MDG)
Source: Clive James, 2011
ISAAA
ISAAA – www.isaaa.org
A Not-for-Profit Charity, co-sponsored by public and
private sector organizations
ISAAA is a Pro-Choice Organization
• Share knowledge freely on crop biotechnology
whilst respecting the rights of others to make their
own decisions; ensure that the global community is
well informed about the attributes and potential of
the new technologies
• MISSION - Contribute to poverty alleviation by
increasing crop productivity and income generation,
particularly for small resource-poor farmers and to
ensure a safer and more sustainable environment
Source: Clive James, 2011
ISAAA
The Challenge - Double Crop
Production by 2050 – A Strategy
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ISAAA
NO SINGLE APPROACH will suffice to feed 9 billion people in 2050
Conventional crop improvement ALONE will not double crop
production by 2050 – GM/BIOTECH CROPS NOT A PANACEA but
essential
Successful strategy must have MULTIPLE APPROACHES that
address all the principal issues that include:
• Population stabilization
• Improved food distribution systems
• A Technology Component is ESSENTIAL – A crop
improvement STRATEGY THAT INTEGRATES the BEST of
the OLD (CONVENTIONAL) and the BEST of the NEW
(BIOTECH) to optimize productivity and CONTRIBUTE to
food, feed and fiber security
Source: Clive James, 2011
Global Society’s Questions re.
Biotech Crops
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ISAAA
Can biotech crops produce more affordable
food, feed and fiber, and are they safe?
Can biotech crops contribute to a more
sustainable environment ?
Can biotech crops help with climate change
by decreasing CO2 emissions?
Can biotech crops contribute to food
security and to the alleviation of poverty and
hunger?
Source: Clive James, 2011
ISAAA
ADOPTION
OF
BIOTECH CROPS
1996 - 2010
Accumulated Global Area of Biotech Crops,1996/10
Biotech Crops Surge Over 1 Billion Hectares in 2010
ISAAA
M Acres
2965
1200
1 Billion Hectares = USA land area
2471
1000
1976
800
1482
600
988
400
494
200
0
0
500 Million Hectares
10 years
5 years
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Source: Clive James, 2011
ISAAA
Global Area (Million Hectares) of Biotech Crops,
2010: by Country
ISAAA
Biotech Mega Countries
50,000 hectares , or more
Million Hectares
Increase over 2009
10%
Source: Clive James, 2010.
29 countries which have adopted
biotech crops
In 2010, global area of biotech
crops was 148 million hectares,
representing an increase of 10%
over 2009, equivalent to 14 million
hectares.
USA
Brazil*
Argentina*
India*
Canada
China*
Paraguay*
Pakistan*
South Africa*
Uruguay*
Bolivia*
Australia
Philippines*
Myanmar*
Burkina Faso*
Spain
Mexico*
66.8
25.4
22.9
9.4
8.8
3.5
2.6
2.4
2.2
1.1
0.9
0.7
0.5
0.3
0.3
0.1
0.1
Less than 50,000 hectares
Colombia* Czech Republic
Chile*
Poland
Honduras* Egypt*
Portugal
Slovakia
* Developing countries
Costa Rica*
Romania
Sweden
Germany
SUMMARY – 2010 HIGHLIGHTS
ISAAA
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1 billionth hectare planted in 2010 – same area as USA
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Strong 10% growth = 14 m. has. – 2nd largest gain ever.
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Increase from 25 to 29 countries; 3 new: Pakistan,
Myanmar and Sweden, and Germany resumed planting
87-fold increase from 1996 to 2010 – fastest adopted
crop technology
Top 10 countries each >1 m. has., 8 are developing
15.4 mill. biotech farmers, up 1.4 mill. – 90% or 14.4
million were small and resource-poor farmers
Stacked traits – 11 countries, 32 million hectares (22%)
Source: Clive James, 2011
ISAAA
IMPACT OF BIOTECH CROPS
GLOBAL IMPACT of BIOTECH CROPS
Source: Brookes and Barfoot forthcoming, and Clive James, 2011
ISAAA
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IMPROVED PRODUCTIVITY AND INCOME – Farm income gains
of $65 billion from 1996 to 2009, of which 44% was due to cost
reduction and 56% due to a production gain of 229 million tons;
benefits conservative due spill-over from biotech to conventional.
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PROTECT BIODIVERSITY – Double crop production on same area
of 1.5 billion hectares of crop land – save forests/biodiversity –
13 m. has. loss/year in dev countries – 229 mill tons would have
required an additional 75 mill hectares – a land saving technology
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ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACT – Reduce need for external inputs
- Saving of 393 mill. kg pesticides from 1996/2009 - 9% saved
- Saved 18 bill. kg C02 in 2009 - contribution to climate change
- Conservation of soil & WATER thru biotech + no/low till
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SOCIAL BENEFITS
- Contribution to poverty alleviation of 14.4 million small
resource-poor farmers in 2010 & welfare benefits emerging
ISAAA
THE FUTURE
2011 - 2015,
THE REMANING FIVE YEARS OF THE
SECOND DECADE OF
COMMERCIALIZATION
2015, The Millennium Development Goals Year
The Future – 2011-2015. A WAVE OF
NEW & IMPROVED BIOTECH CROPS
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ISAAA
Many new crop/trait options will be ready before 2015
Drought tolerance–principal trait–maize in US 2012/13
Biotech rice – major crop, up to 1 billion beneficiaries
Quality traits – Golden Rice in 2013, omega-3, others
More biotech crops developed by countries from the
South in public inst. – more South-South cooperation
Biotech applications for “Speeding the breeding” –
MAS and biotech crops, to provide a faster response
to more severe and rapid changes in climate change
Asia will grow more in 2nd decade than first decade
Source: Clive James, 2011
ISAAA Prediction for 2nd Decade, 2006-2015
ISAAA
# of Biotech
Countries
# of Farmers
Planting
Biotech Crops
2006
2010
2015
22
29
~ 40
10 Million
15.4
Million
~ 20
Million
Global Biotech 100 Million 148 Million
Area
Hectares
Hectares
m. hectares
Source: Clive James, 2011
~200
Million
Hectares
ISAAA
Biotech crops, are a product of
INNOVATION
“the ability to manage change as
an opportunity, not as a threat”