Transcript J. Smith - Selecting Methods for Assessing Vulnerability and

Selecting Methods for Assessing
Vulnerability and Adaptation to
Climate Change and the Role of
the Compendium
Presented to:
UNFCCC Compendium on Impacts,
Vulnerability and Adaptation Methods
Presented by:
Joel B. Smith
Stratus Consulting Inc.
December 7, 2004
Outline
• How analytic tools should be selected
• Some experience with how they have
been selected
• Role of Compendium in providing
assistance on tool selection
How Analytic Tools Should Be
Selected
• It is critical to
remember that we
should not look to
models or other
analytic tools to
give us answers,
but to provide
insight
So We Should Not “Believe”
What Comes Out of Analytic
Tools
• Remember that models are
simplifications of reality
• They can particularly useful for
examining complex situations such as
climate change
• Using models not always necessary
It’s Important that the Choice
of Analytic Tools be
Appropriate for the Situation
• First, the tool should provide meaningful
outputs
• Choice depends on question being asked
• So, the outputs need to be relevant to policy
questions
• Second, the choice of the tools needs to be
appropriate for carrying out the research.
Depends on:
• Capacity of user to apply the tool
• Availability of data
• Availability of money and time
U.S. Country Studies Made Tool
Selection Easy
• Involved ~50 countries
• Training, software, and data were
provided for one set of models
• Were relatively easy to apply
•
•
•
•
Generally required minimal data
Mostly biophysical models
Some adaptation
Where more complicated models tried, some difficulties:
importance of capacity building and training
• Models may not have been appropriate
for all situations
UNEP Country Studies Provided
a Choice of Approaches
• Fewer countries (6) and more in-depth
• Selection of models was heavily
influenced by which technical advisor
was sent to work with the country team
• In some cases, more complex models
were applied
“Second Generation”
Approaches Stakeholder Driven
• This puts more of a premium on selection of
appropriate analytic tools (if such tools can
help)
• Need to provide information relevant to
stakeholder questions.
• Model needs to be “trusted” by stakeholders
• Can result in myriad of models and other
approaches being requested: more pressure
on technology transfer mechanisms
• Is a real need for comprehensive information
Value of the Compendium
• Presents brief information on many analytic
options in concise and accessible format
• Options vary in detail of output, difficulty of use,
and cost
• User does not have to invest a lot of time to
get a basic overview of choices
• Since it is on the web, the Compendium is
easy to access — and is free!
• Freely available or low cost tools is an important
way to transfer technologies