Transcript Fischdiversität limnischer und mariner Ökosysteme

Status Quo and Current
Challenges of AquaMaps
Rainer Froese
IFM-GEOMAR, Kiel
[email protected]
FishBase Mini-Symposium 2011, Stockholm, 5.9.2011
www.aquamaps.org
Highlights and Challenges I
Highlights and Challenges II
Highlights and Challenges III
Equatorial Species Richness Transect across the Indo-Pacific
Celebes/Halmahera
2500
Marshall I.
Number of species (n)
Somalia
Howland/Baker
2000
Maldives
1500
Borneo
Sumatra
1000
Galapagos
Ecuador
Seamount
500
0
40
80
120
160
Longitude (degrees)
200
240
280
5
Main Challenges:
• How to handle massive amounts of data
• How to free programmers from other tasks
• Get funding for more and faster development
How About Climate Change?
7
Expected Changes in
Environmental Parameters in 2050
Climate zone
Surface
Temp.
(°C)
Bottom
Temp.
(°C)
Salinity
Bottom
Salinity
Ice
concentration
(%)
Arctic
+0.7
+1.6
-1.2
-0.8
-9
Temperate N
+0.4
+0.8
-0.7
-0.3
-2
Subtropical N
+1.0
-0.1
-0.3
-0.0
0
Tropical
+1.4
-0.3
-0.2
0.0
0
Subtropical S
+0.5
+0.3
-0.2
0
0
Temperate S
+0.4
+0.7
-0.1
0.0
-0.3
Antarctic
+0.7
+0.5
-0.2
0.0
-3
8
Preliminary Analysis
• 821 marine fishes with verified maps
• Global suitable habitat in 1999 and 2050
• Only core habitat considered (P > 0.5)
9
More Losers than Winners
Change in suitable habitat area in 2050 for 821 species of marine fishes.
Median loss in area is 6% (95% CL 5.1 – 6.8), significantly different from zero.
Data from AquaMaps 2010.
Sharks and Bony Fish Lose Both
Change in suitable habitat area in 2050 by Class. No loss for 2 lampreys and 3 chimaeras.
About 6 % loss for 128 sharks and rays and 688 ray-finned fishes. The areas that are most
suitable for sharks and rays do not shrink or expand more than those for ray-finned fishes.
Data from AquaMaps and FishBase.
Evolution Did Not Help
Change in suitable habitat area in 2050 by phylogenetic rank, with primitive species on the
left and highly derive species on the right. The areas most suitable for primitive species do
not shrink or expand more that those most suitable for highly-derived species.
Being Special Does Not Help
Change in suitable habitat area in 2050 by phylogenetic uniqueness of the respective
species, for 821 marine fishes. The areas most suitable for unique species do not shrink or
expand more than the areas most suitable for species with many close relatives.
Size Does Not Matter
Change in suitable habitat area in 2050 by maximum body length for 821 marine fishes. The
areas most suitable for large fishes do not shrink or expand more than those of small fishes.
Highways and Homes
Change in suitable habitat area in 2050 by migratory behavior for 821 marine fishes. The areas
most suitable for oceanodromous and diadromous fishes do not lose or gain more than those
of non-migratory fishes.
No Change (yet) in the Deep
(but reefs are getting hot)
Change in suitable area in 2050 by preferred habitat for 821 marine fishes. The deep sea and
its (104) species are less affected by climate change. More than 50% of the reef-associated
fishes are likely to lose suitable habitat.
The Tropics Lose
Change in suitable area in 2050 by climate zone for 821 marine fishes. Deep-sea areas
(113 species) show no significant change. Also, suitable polar areas (19 species) show no
change, maybe because losses due to increased temperature are made up for by receding
ice-cover. Temperate species (128) may gain slightly (Median 1.6%, 95% CL -0.4 – 3.1).
Suitable areas for subtropical (227) and tropical (334) fishes shrink significantly by about 8%.
Cosmopolitans Less Affected (1)?
Change in suitable area in 2050 by size of current suitable area, for 821 marine fishes.
Extreme points may be artifacts. Overall it seems that suitable areas of 0.5 to 20 million km2
have more potential for shrinkage than areas over 40 million km2.
Cosmopolitans Less Affected (2)?
Change in suitable area in 2050 by latitudinal range, for 821 marine fishes.
No trend is visible.
Summary
• AquaMaps have the potential to map all life
on Earth, present, past and future
• Handling huge amounts of data is a challenge
• Funding is needed for further (faster)
development
Thank You
Rainer Froese
IFM-GEOMAR
[email protected]