Transcript Climate Change - National Center for Case Study Teaching in Science

Global Climate Change:
Impact and Remediation
Maureen Knabb1and Tim Lutz2
West Chester University
Department of Biology1 and Geology2
1
CQ#1: Based on your current knowledge, which
statement is closest to your thoughts about the
consequences for humans of global climate
change?
A. The effects of climate change, if any, will be small
compared to natural changes that have occurred
before.
B. The effects of climate change will be minor except in
poor, less developed countries.
C. Climate change will significantly affect many countries.
D. The effects of climate change will be catastrophic
around the world.
2
Imagine that…
You are an intern working for the
senator representing your region. He
wants to hold a town hall meeting to
let his constituents air their feelings
about global climate change.
“OK,” the senator’s office manager
tells you. “We need to be able to
anticipate and respond to the
concerns that are likely to be raised.
So I want you to identify five local
groups who you think are likely to
attend the meeting, and briefly
describe the main points each group
is likely to raise.”
3
In groups of 3, identify 5 different groups from
your community who might be concerned
about climate change and ask to meet with
the Senator.
• For example, in a rural community, the Senator
might meet with farmers. In an urban community,
the Senator might meet with heating and cooling
workers.
• In a class discussion, make a list of the different
constituent groups.
4
Since your job is to anticipate and respond to
questions on global climate change for a
community group for the Senator,
it is important that you…
1. Understand the predicted impacts of global
climate change.
2. Identify strategies to address the problems
associated with global climate change.
5
Why is there so much concern about
climate change?
Predicted consequences of global climate change include:
1. Melting of continental and polar glaciers and sea ice.
2. A rise in sea level and loss of coastal communities.
3. Damage to ecosystems and reduced survival of
threatened species.
4. Reductions in our food supply due to changes in
agricultural conditions.
5. Increased threats to human health from new diseases
and changing disease distributions.
6
1. Glaciers are melting
According to the National Snow & Ice Data Center:
“Because glaciers are sensitive to temperature
fluctuations, they provide clues about the effects of
global warming. With few exceptions, glaciers around
the world have retreated at unprecedented rates over
the last century. Some ice caps, glaciers, and even an
ice shelf have disappeared altogether. Many more are
retreating so rapidly that they may vanish within
decades.”
7
Glacial retreat can be judged from photographs taken
from the same location decades apart.
Muir Glacier, Alaska, in 1890 (top) and 2005 (bottom).
8
Muir Glacier, Alaska, in 1880 (left) and 2005 (right).
Muir Glacier, Alaska, in 1941 (left) and 2004 (right).
9
1. Glaciers are melting
•Melting glaciers, which supply drinking and
irrigation water for hundreds of millions of
people around the world, will be lost.
•In addition, melting glaciers lead to rising sea
levels and regional precipitation decreases.
10
CQ#2: What should you know about
melting glaciers?
A. Glaciers form and disappear only during Ice Age
cycles, which take hundreds of thousands of years.
B. Glaciers might be melting at many locations around
the world but the evidence is unclear.
C. During the last century, glaciers in many places have
shrunk.
D. Glaciers have disappeared entirely, making it
unnecessary to consider how future climate change
will affect them.
11
CQ#3: Based on the graph below, after
1900, the sea level is rising at a rate of:
A.
B.
C.
D.
20 m/century
20 cm
2 mm/year
2 cm/year
12
2. Sea level is rising
• Because most glaciers are melting, sea
level is rising.
• In addition, the oceans’ surfaces are
warming because of climate change, and
this expands the water and adds to sea
level rise.
13
2. Sea level is rising
• From 1993-2003, the estimated rate of sea
level rise from both causes has been about
2.4 centimeters/decade.
• Oceans are predicted to rise about 12
centimeters in the next 50 years.
• Coastal erosion rates are about 100 times
the rate of sea level rise, which means that
every centimeter of sea level rise results in 1
meter of beach erosion.
14
Coastal
Flooding
and
Erosion
Miami Beach,
Florida.
Current sea
level (top);
+1 m (bottom)
15
Are larger changes possible?
Ice caps in Greenland and Antarctica together hold 70% of
the world's fresh water— enough to potentially raise the
sea level approximately 225 feet. But changes this large
are thought to be extremely unlikely in the next century.
16
CQ#4: Based on the graph below, sea ice
has:
A.
B.
C.
D.
Remained relatively
stable in the 50s
and 60s.
Decreased to
nearly one-half its
area in the last 40
years.
Most recently
decreased at a rate
of about 10 million
sq km/decade.
All of the above.
17
The implications of melting sea ice
•Sea ice tends to reflect sun’s energy; sea water tends to
absorb sun’s energy.
•When more sea ice melts in summer, there is more open
water to absorb energy and heat up.
•The following winter it takes longer for sea ice to form due to
warmer water and thinner ice.
•Then, more melting takes place the next summer, which
warms the water even more… and so on…
The “…and so on” is an indicator of a positive feedback
process. Now that melting has started, it might accelerate
because of the positive feedback.
18
Another positive feedback loop:
Melting permafrost
• Warming climate is melting the
permafrost in Canada, Alaska,
and Scandinavia.
• This increases wetlands.
• The wetlands release methane
and carbon dioxide.
• which are greenhouse gases …
more positive feedback effects!
19
CQ#5: In terms of the potential of glacial
melting to raise sea level, what is most
important for you to understand?
A. Sea level rise and erosion can be costly and widespread
even if the rise is only 1 meter.
B. A catastrophic sea level rise of 225 m can occur in the
next century from melting ice caps.
C. Sea level rise will mainly affect low-lying foreign countries
and would have no effect on the U.S.
D. Positive feedback serves to diminish the effects of glacial
melting.
20
3. Animals and ecosystems depend on climate
Polar bears and their prey
need sea ice
Reef organisms depend on
specific temperatures
Climate change adds to stress that may already exist from human
use and pollution: Will these animals be able to adapt?
21
4. Agricultural systems depend on climate
Climate change
will affect
production of food,
fiber, and wood
products.
Will the benefits of
change exceed
the losses?
Will agriculture be
able to adapt to
change?
22
Projected Changes in Agriculture in 2080 due to Climate Change
Wealthier nations may be better able to adapt.
Will they be able to feed the world?
23
CQ#6: What should you understand about
the effect of climate change on ecosystems
and agriculture?
A. Natural ecosystems will be affected but not human
managed systems.
B. Climate change will harm all ecosystems and
agriculture in every part of the world.
C. It is important to understand how natural ecosystems
and agriculture will change and how they can adapt to
change.
D. These changes are occurring far away and won’t affect
the American public.
24
Morbidity (illness), mortality (death), and displacement (migration of
population) could increase. For example, if malaria-carrying
mosquitoes could move north, illness and death from malaria could
move north as well, and people might respond by moving to even
higher latitudes.
25
Health effects will not be the same everywhere
Which parts of the world have not been affected much by
climate change so far? How and why might this change?
26
CQ#7: What should you know about the
effect of climate change on human health?
A. Threats to human health are occurring far away and
won’t affect the American public.
B. The health effects of climate change are nuisances,
such as increased perspiration and fatigue.
C. In developed countries like the U.S., the effects of
global warming will be stopped by air conditioning.
D. Climate change will affect the health of the U.S. directly
and through immigration from more affected areas.
27
Review the list generated during
the beginning of class and
identify which constituent group
would be at the greatest risk
based on what you have
learned about the impact of
global climate change….
28
CQ#8: Overall, which effect of global
climate change would be the most
important to this constituent group?
A. Melting glaciers and diminishing water supply.
B. Sea level rise and coastal erosion.
C. Challenges for ecosystems and native species.
D. Challenges for agriculture and diminishing food
supply.
E. Threats to human health.
29
How do we cause climate change?
The most significant cause of climate change is emission of
greenhouse gases (GHG), such as CO2, into the atmosphere
from human activities.
In the U.S., most
emissions result
from using
energy. Net
emissions are
large even though
some land uses
actually remove
GHG from the air.
30
Responding to climate change
Mitigation
• Reduce greenhouse gas (GHG)
emissions. Drastic reductions could
stabilize GHG in the atmosphere, but
GHG remain in the atmosphere a
long time so levels would not drop
right away.
• Sequestration. Land use and
forestry practices that store CO2 in
soil and plants can lower GHG levels
in the atmosphere.
31
Responding to climate change
Mitigation
Geologic sequestration: Remove
greenhouse gas emissions from
the air and store it in the earth or
oceans. But the technology to
do this does not exist and might
take decades to develop.
Rigs that pump oil out of
Earth today might be able to
put CO2 back in the future.
Adaptation
Climate change is occurring now
and further change is inevitable.
Adaptation means altering our
economy and our lives to cope
with those changes.
32
CQ#9: In the graph below, direct emissions result from using fossilbased fuels such as gasoline and fuel oil while electricity-related
emissions result from using fossil fuels, such as coal, to generate
electricity. Thus, the generation of electricity represents the greatest
proportion of GHGs in the ____ sector(s). (Choose the best answer)
A.
B.
C.
D.
Residential
Commercial
Industrial
Residential and
commercial
E. All of the above
33
Practices and technologies
We can reduce emissions by:
Conservation: Use less energy (e.g., turn off lights, machines
and engines when they’re not in use).
Conversion: Change to low-emission energy sources (e.g.,
renewable fuels emit fewer GHG than fossil fuels).
Efficiency: Use technologies that get the most from an energy
source (e.g., Energy Star appliances).
Waste reduction: Eliminate materials that require energy to
landfill (e.g., compost organics instead of creating trash).
Sequestration: take GHG out of the air (e.g., maintain and
increase crops and land uses that hold carbon in soils).
34
CQ#10: The Senator should educate his
constituents that an effective way that
individuals can reduce their own contribution to
GHGs is to:
A. Use less energy in their
homes.
B. Use low emission
electricity sources rather
than coal-generated
electricity if possible.
C. Purchase locally grown
produce.
D. All of the above.
35
What can you do?
As an intern you’ve taught the Senator what needs to be
done to address the effects of climate change. What can
you do personally?
The most important step is to find out how much GHG your
lifestyle creates. Use one or more of the following online
calculators to find out. Then use the GHG-reducing tips on
these sites to reduce your GHG production.
The US EPA household emission calculator
(http://www.epa.gov/climatechange/emissions/ind_calculator.html)
The Nature Conservancy carbon footprint calculator
(http://www.nature.org/initiatives/climatechange/calculator/
Carbonfootprint.com
(http://www.carbonfootprint.com/)
36
Slide Credits
Slide 4
Description: The United States Capitol Building in Washington DC, framed with the Supreme Court columns.
Author: ©Michael Shake
Source: Dreamstime.com, ID: 11882582
Clearance: Copyrighted, licensed royalty free.
Slide 8—Top
Description: Muir Glacier, Alaska in 1890.
Author: Septima M. Collis
Source: National Snow and Ice Data Center/World Data Center for Glaciology, Boulder. Glacier id: muir1890000003.
Link: http://nsidc.org/cgi-bin/gpd_deliver_jpg.pl?muir1890000003
Clearance: Photograph held by the National Snow and Ice Data Center/World Data Center for Glaciology, Boulder. May be used freely if
properly cited.
Slide 8—Bottom
Description: Muir Glacier, Alaska in 2005.
Author: Bruce F. Molnia
Source: National Snow and Ice Data Center/World Data Center for Glaciology, Boulder. Glacier id: muir2005081108.
Link: http://nsidc.org/cgi-bin/gpd_deliver_jpg.pl?muir2005081108
Clearance: Photograph held by the National Snow and Ice Data Center/World Data Center for Glaciology, Boulder. May be used freely if
properly cited.
Slide 9—Top left
Description: Muir Glacier, Alaska in 1880.
Author: G.D. Hazard
Source: National Snow and Ice Data Center/World Data Center for Glaciology, Boulder. Glacier id: muir1880000001.
Link: http://nsidc.org/cgi-bin/gpd_deliver_jpg.pl?muir1880000001
Clearance: Photograph held by the National Snow and Ice Data Center/World Data Center for Glaciology, Boulder. May be used freely if
properly cited.
Slide 9—Top right
Description: Muir Glacier, Alaska in 2005.
Author: Bruce F. Molnia
Source: National Snow and Ice Data Center/World Data Center for Glaciology, Boulder. Glacier id: muir2005081111.
Link: http://nsidc.org/cgi-bin/gpd_deliver_jpg.pl?muir2005081111
Clearance: Photograph held by the National Snow and Ice Data Center/World Data Center for Glaciology, Boulder. May be used freely if
properly cited.
Slide 9—Bottom left
Description: Muir Glacier, Alaska in 1941.
Author: William O. Field
Source: National Snow and Ice Data Center/World Data Center for Glaciology, Boulder. Glacier id: muir1941081301.
Link: http://nsidc.org/cgi-bin/gpd_deliver_jpg.pl?muir1941081301
Clearance: Photograph held by the National Snow and Ice Data Center/World Data Center for Glaciology, Boulder. May be used freely if
properly cited.
Slide 9—Bottom right
Description: Muir Glacier, Alaska in 2004.
Author: Bruce F. Molnia
Source: National Snow and Ice Data Center/World Data Center for Glaciology, Boulder. Glacier id: muir2004083101.
Link: http://nsidc.org/cgi-bin/gpd_deliver_jpg.pl?muir2004083101
Clearance: Photograph held by the National Snow and Ice Data Center/World Data Center for Glaciology, Boulder. May be used freely if
properly cited.
Slide 12
Description: Graph of sea level rise over the past century.
Author: This figure was prepared from publicly available data by Robert A. Rohde and is incorporated into the Global Warming Art project.
Source: Wikimedia Commons, http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Recent_Sea_Level_Rise.png
Clearance: Licensed in accordance with Creative Commons Attribution-Noncommercial-Share Alike 2.5 Generic.
Slide 15
Description: Photos of Miama Beach today and with 1 m change in sea level.
Source: Nation Under Siege: Sea Level Rise at Our Doorstep, 2007, Edward Mazria and Kristina Kershner, The 2030 Research Center; link.
Miami Beach, Florida—1.0-meter sea level rise ©2009 2030, Inc. / Architecture 2030, Data Source: LIDAR IHRCS.
Clearance: Used with permission.
Slide 16—Left
Description: Globe, shaded relief, polar cap with ice cover.
Author: ©Arid Ocean
Source: Fotolia.com
Clearance: Copyrighted, licensed royalty free.
Slide 16—Right
Description: Globe, shaded relief, centered on the south pole.
Author: ©Arid Ocean
Source: Fotolia.com
Clearance: Copyrighted, licensed royalty free.
Slide 17—Right
Description: Sea ice area versus time graph.
Author: Graph prepared by case author, Timothy Lutz.
Source: Data from the National Snow and Ice Data Center (nsidc.org).
Clearance: Graph used with permission.
Slide 19—Top
Description: Close up of permafrost.
Author: ©iChip
Source: Fotolia.com
Clearance: Copyrighted, licensed royalty free.
Slide 19—Bottom
Description: Frozen tundra.
Author: ©gburba
Source: Fotolia.com
Clearance: Copyrighted, licensed royalty free.
Slide 21—Left
Description: Polar bears.
Author: ©Andrew Watson
Source: Fotolia.com
Clearance: Copyrighted, licensed royalty free.
Slide 21—Right
Description: A Blue Starfish (Linckia laevigata) resting on hard Acropora coral. Lighthouse, Ribbon Reefs, Great Barrier Reef
Author: Richard Ling
Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Blue_Linckia_Starfish.JPG
Clearance: Licensed in accordance with Creative Commons Attribution-Share Alike 3.0 Unported.
Slide 22
Description: Effects of global warming on agriculture.
Source: FactFile, Food and Agriculture Organization of The United Nations, http://www.fao.org/english/newsroom/factfile/FF9721-E.HTM
Clearance: Used in accordance with terms of use at http://www.fao.org/corp/copyright/en/.
Slide 23
Description: Map of projected changes in agriculture in 2080 due to climate change.
Author: Hugo Ahlenius, Nordpil
Source: Data from Cline, W. R. 2007. Global Warming and Agriculture: Impact Estimates by Country. Washington D.C., USA: Peterson
Institute. Map by UNEP/GRID-Arendal; exact source.
Clearance: Used in accordance with terms of use.
Slide 25
Description: Effects of climate change on human health.
Source: Information adapted by the Tennessee Department of Health from Agency for Toxic Substances and Disease Registry.
Link: The Tennessee Department of Health, http://health.state.tn.us/Environmental/climatechange.htm
Clearance: Used with permission.
Slide 26
Description: Health effects of climate change.
Source: Center for Sustainability and the Global Environment (SAGE) at the University of Wisconsin-Madison,
http://www.sage.wisc.edu/index.html; exact source. Data drawn from Ezzati M, Lopez AD, Rodgers A, Murray CJL (Eds) (2004)
Comparative Quantification of Health Risks: The Global and Regional Burden of Disease Attributable to Selected Major Risk Factors
(Volumes 1 and 2). Geneva: World Health Organization. Map created by a team of climate and health scientists led by Jonathan Patz,
associate professor of environmental studies and population health sciences at the University of Wisconsin-Madison.
Clearance: Used with permission.
Slide 30
Description: U.S. Emissions of GHG.
Author: Graph prepared by case author, Timothy Lutz.
Source: Data from “Inventory of U.S. Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Sinks: 1990–2007,” US EPA, 2009 (EPA 430-R-09-004), Table ES-4
see pg 33
Clearance: Graph used with permission.
Slide 31
Description: Photo of smokestack (top) and forest (bottom).
Author: Personal photos by case author, Timothy Lutz.
Clearance: Used with permission.
Slide 32
Description: Offshore oil rig.
Author: ©bengsoon
Source: Fotolia.com
Clearance: Copyrighted, licensed royalty free.
Slide 33 and Slide 35
Description: Graphs from IPCC report.
Source: Bottom panels of Figure SPM.4, p. 11. IPCC, 2007: Summary for Policymakers. In: Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science
Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Solomon,
S., D. Qin, M. Manning, Z. Chen, M. Marquis, K.B. Averyt, M.Tignor and H.L. Miller (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge,
United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA.
Link: http://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar4/wg1/ar4-wg1-spm.pdf
Clearance: Used in accordance with terms of use on http://www.ipcc.ch/home_copyright.htm.