Transcript changes in ground-level air pollution over europe

Indicators for policy support of
atmosphere related environmental problems
Robert Koelemeijer
National Institute for Public Health and the Environment (RIVM)
ETC - Air and Climate Change
Contents
Indicators + examples
• Stratospheric ozone
• Air pollution
• Climate change
 Present status of indicators
 How do/can satellite observations contribute to indicators
20-1-2004
Atm. Chem. Appl. Workshop, ESTEC
2
Indicators: DPSIR
Indicators:
• used to analyse developments
• measure distance-to-target
20-1-2004
Atm. Chem. Appl. Workshop, ESTEC
3
Stratospheric ozone
Policy objective (Montreal protocol) :
phase-out use of ozone depleting substances
Consumption of Ozone Depleting Substances (EEA31)
400
350
million ODP kg
300
Methyl bromide
HCFCs
Halons
CFCs, Carbon tetrachloride, Methyl chloroform
250
200
150
100
50
0
1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000
20-1-2004
Atm. Chem. Appl. Workshop, ESTEC
4
Stratospheric ozone
State indicators:
• Concentrations CFCs, HCFCs, Halons: ground-based data
• Ozone column density: TOMS, GOME, ...
Averaged ozone column over Europe for March
450
Dobson Units
425
400
375
350
325
300
1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004
year
20-1-2004
Atm. Chem. Appl. Workshop, ESTEC
5
Stratospheric ozone
• Monitoring ozone layer from space is a success story:
– total column density is the relevant quantity
– accuracy sufficient (few %)
– continuity of observations OK
• Future observations needed:
– will ozone layer recover?
– interaction with climate change?
20-1-2004
Atm. Chem. Appl. Workshop, ESTEC
6
Air quality
• Ground based networks (EMEP, Airbase)
– Components: O3, NO, NO2, VOCs, SO2, CO, PM10, PM2.5, toxics,
heavy metals (Pb, Ni, Cd, As, Hg), ...
– Sites: street / urban background / rural background
– Accuracy depends on component. Typically 5-30% for single
measurement.
– Some of the drawbacks:
• necessarily limited density of stations
• different network design per country
20-1-2004
Atm. Chem. Appl. Workshop, ESTEC
7
Concentration NO2 (794 Airbase stations)
NO2 annual mean
street
urban
rural
concentration (ug/m3)
80
60
EU limit value
40
20
0
1995
20-1-2004
1996
1997
1998
1999
Atm. Chem. Appl. Workshop, ESTEC
2000
2001
8
NO2 map
Yearly average 2000
Urban background
20-1-2004
Atm. Chem. Appl. Workshop, ESTEC
9
GOME observations: tropospheric NO2
Image courtesy KNMI
20-1-2004
Atm. Chem. Appl. Workshop, ESTEC
10
ATSR-2: aerosols over land
Image courtesy TNO-FEL
20-1-2004
Atm. Chem. Appl. Workshop, ESTEC
11
MODIS AOD - PM2.5 correlation
Kittaka et al., 84th AMS conference
20-1-2004
Atm. Chem. Appl. Workshop, ESTEC
12
Air pollution
• Synergy between ground-based and satellite
observations could be further explored
Ground-based
measurements
Satellite
measurements
Model
Assimilation
Emissions
20-1-2004
Concentrations
(analysis &
forecast)
Depositions
Atm. Chem. Appl. Workshop, ESTEC
13
Air pollution
Satellites should
• sample boundary layer 
small pixel size (~10x10 km2) required
– look between clouds
– resolve source areas
• priority species:
– PM10 and PM2.5
– Ozone (ground-level and tropospheric column (CC))
20-1-2004
Atm. Chem. Appl. Workshop, ESTEC
14
Climate Change
Kyoto-monitoring:
• emissions estimated through “activity” approach
(emission = activity x emission factor)
• reporting guidelines fixed (IPCC)
• same method for all years (1990 - 2012)
20-1-2004
Atm. Chem. Appl. Workshop, ESTEC
15
GHG inverse modelling
• Inverse modelling of satellite observations of CO2
and CH4 might give useful constraints on sources
and sinks. But research has only started recently.
• Some bottlenecks:
– Data availability (Mopitt?, Sciamachy?, NASA/OCO)
– Global anthropogenic CO2 emissions are rather well known
(< 10%). Inverse modelling will constrain locations and
strengths of natural sources and sinks.
– Constraining anthropogenic CH4 seems better feasible:
shorter lifetime, anthropogenic emissions less well known
and of similar magnitude as natural emissions.
20-1-2004
Atm. Chem. Appl. Workshop, ESTEC
16
Other forcings and feedbacks
• Climate change policy heavily depends on science
(IPCC): current effects are only minor compared to
future.
• Model validation necessary to improve projections
– Greenhouse gases
– Aerosols (land & ocean)
– Clouds
• Aerosols and tropospheric O3 (precursors) not in
Kyoto protocol, but monitoring these are important
both for climate change and air quality.
20-1-2004
Atm. Chem. Appl. Workshop, ESTEC
17
State + impact indicators
• State and impact indicators for Europe have been
developed recently by ETC-ACC.
– Temperature, precipitation, extremes
– Cryosphere (snow cover, glaciers, Arctic sea ice)
– Marine system (sea level, SST, marine growing season,
shifts in species distribution)
– Ecosystems and biodiversity
– Public health (tick borne diseases, heat-waves)
• Non-atmospheric satellite measurements used for
CC State & Impact indicators: e.g., detection of
changes Arctic sea-ice and snow cover.
 Need for long-term satellite observational records
20-1-2004
Atm. Chem. Appl. Workshop, ESTEC
18
Climate change
Arctic Sea-ice Extent anomaly since 1973
Source: IPCC, 2001
20-1-2004
Atm. Chem. Appl. Workshop, ESTEC
19
Conclusions
• Ozone layer: monitoring from space is a success
story: sufficient accuracy for long-term ozone trend
detection and long-term continuity assured
• Air quality: assessments may improve through
synergy between ground-based and satellite
measurements
• Climate change: inverse modelling of ground- and
satellite observations may constrain CO2 and CH4
sources & sinks. Research recently started. But
unlikely to improve anthropogenic CO2 emission
inventories.
• Indicators are only part of the story. Scientific
progress (model validation, constraining natural
fluxes, etc) is crucial to improve projections.
20-1-2004
Atm. Chem. Appl. Workshop, ESTEC
20