Transcript Why now, why us? - Institute of Public Health in Ireland

Why now, why us?
• Never waste a crisis
• A classic public health issue
• Health arguments not heard
Mike Gill Co-chair Climate and Health Council
Never waste a crisis
Food Production
Up to 2003
– Food production
>x2 since 1960
– Food production per
capita had grown
– Food prices had
fallen
– Percent of
undernourished
fallen
– But the benefits are
uneven, with 850
million people still
hungry
– Significant
environmental
degradation
Water
15 - 35% of irrigation withdrawals exceed supply rates and are therefore
unsustainable (low to medium certainty)
Why now, why us?
• Never waste a crisis
• A classic public health issue
350m years-worth of CO2
64m (354-290m years ago) = Carboniferous
…which we are burning VERY fast
150 years
First Oil
Well
100 years
4142 cars,
10 miles
concrete
road in US
50 years
First
commercial
jet ticket
NOW
650,000,000 cars
4,800,000,000
passenger flights
• 205,733 kg of coal…..
• 92,652,841 litres of gas….
• 156,284 litres of oil…..
…….. A SECOND
Billions of tonnes of CO2
25
20
15
10
5
0
1850
1875
1900
1925
1950
1975
2000
• Not only are we producing record levels of
greenhouse gases, we are removing the
planet’s ability to absorb them
• Half of all forests have been destroyed in the
50 years prior to 2000 = 20 football pitches
every minute
Source: IPCC TAR (slide taken from Hadley Centre)
Katrina cost as much as four years of war in Iraq:
$250 BILLION
WWF/ IoZ/ ZSL May 2008
LIVING PLANET INDEX
“Ground-living vertebrates have declined by
25%, with most of the slump occurring since
1980. Marine species held fairly steady until
the late 1990s before falling sharply to give an
overall drop of 28%. Freshwater species have
decreased by 25%, primarily since the late
1980s.”
MASS EXTINCTION
EVENTS
“A 1998 survey by the American
500 million
400 million
300 million
200 million
100 million
Museum of Natural History found
that 70% of biologists view the
present era as part of a mass
extinction event, the fastest to have
ever occurred.200
Some..
the
million predict
360 million
65 million
444 million
Triassic- of all species
extinction of one-half
DevonianCretaceousOrdovicianJurassic
Carbiniferous
Silurian
in the coming decades”Tertiary
488 million
251 million
CambrianOrdovician
PermianTriassic
We are already losing 3 species
AN HOUR
AND WE HAVEN’T EVEN STARTED YET…
Most global health problems are ‘self inflicted’:
•
•
•
•
•
War
Inequality
Tobacco
Alcohol
Air pollution
•
•
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Road trauma
Obesity
Malnutrition
Physical inactivity
Climate Change
But climate change will soon be irreversible
Although climate change can cause illness and
death...
- Heat-related deaths
- Skin cancer and cataracts
- Injuries and infectious diseases as a result of increased
flooding
- Respiratory disease
- Insect-borne disease
- Food poisoning
…there are even greater risks of widespread
trauma, disease and deaths through civil
unrest:
•
•
•
•
•
•
Crop failure >> famine >> deaths
Water shortages >> human conflict >> deaths
Mass migration >> human conflict >> deaths
Economic collapse >> human conflict >> deaths
Resource wars >> human conflict >> deaths
Ecosystem collapse >> human conflict >> deaths
India builds a 2,500-mile barrier
to rival the Great Wall of China
Melting glaciers in the Himalayas are wreaking havoc in
Bangladesh leading to a rise in illegal migration to India.
This has prompted India to build an immense border fence
in attempt to block newcomers.
28 February 2006
Why now, why us?
• Never waste a crisis
• A classic public health issue
On the obesity epidemic….
‘A more enlightened health sector would
have engaged early with other sectors in
relation to a foreseeable (although mostly
not foreseen) crisis, reducible by
intersectoral planning in relation to urban
design, transport systems, food
production, and marketing.’
McMichael AJ et al The Lancet, 374; 2123 - 2125
Why now, why us?
• Never waste a crisis
• A classic public health issue
• Health arguments not heard
The UN Framework Convention on
Climate Change (UNFCCC; 1992)
committed nations to work
collectively to engage in…….
“minimizing adverse effects
on the economy, on public
health and on the quality of
the environment”
(Article 4, Item f)
Why did Copenhagen not get
further?
Developing countries want developed
countries to
• allow them to develop, and pay for the cost of the clean
energy they need to do so
• show responsibility for the current mess by committing to
huge reductions in their own GHG emissions
• support them financially in necessary adaptation
Three challenges
Structured assessments of risk
Development of adaptation
strategies
Telling the co-benefits story
The Co-benefits story - headlines
What’s good for the climate is good for health
Low carbon societies are the next great health
advance
Mitigation actions will result in huge, immediate,
and certain health benefits
The Task Force on Climate Change Mitigation
and Public Health
Supported by a consortium of funding bodies coordinated by the Wellcome Trust
Department of Health NIHR, Economic and Social Research Council, Royal College of
Physicians, Academy of Medical Sciences, US National Institute of Environmental
Health Sciences and WHO
Involving over 50 researchers from UK, USA, India, Canada, Australia, Spain, France,
New Zealand, WHO Geneva
Indian Stoves – Traditional and
Modern
Per meal
~15x less
black carbon and
other particles
~10x less ozone
precursors
~5x less carbon
monoxide
Traditional Biomass Stove
Gasifier Stove with Electric Blower
(battery recharged with
cell phone charger)
Health benefits of the Indian stove programme
Deaths from ALRI
Avoided in 2020 (%)
Total avoided 2010-20
Deaths from COPD
Deaths from IHD
30.2%
28.2%
5.8%
240,000
1.27 million
560,000
ALRI=acute lower respiratory infections. COPD=chronic obstructive pulmonary disease. IHD=ischaemic heart disease.
GHG benefits of Indian stove programme
• Reductions in black carbon, methane, ozone
precursors could amount to the equivalent of
0.5-1.0 billion tonnes of CO2 eq over the decade
• Cost <$50 per household every 5 years
Health and GHG benefits (UK)
Impact in UK 2010 population in 1 year
UK household energy efficiency
(combined improvements)
Premature deaths averted
~ 5400
Mt-CO2 saved (vs 1990)
55
Action to reduce European
CO2 emissions by 30% ->
savings “as much as €76
billion per year.”
Health and Environment Alliance (HEAL), Climate Action Network Europe (CAN-E) and WWF
Why now, why us?
• Never waste a crisis
• A classic public health issue
• Health arguments not heard
Public trust in different professions
Group
Doctors
Teachers
Television
news readers
Professors
Judges
Scientists
Civil servants
Government
ministers
Politicians
generally
Journalists
Ranking
1
2
3
Tell the truth
(%)
91
87
66
Not tell the
truth (%)
6
8
24
4
5
7
11
14
74
72
64
45
20
11
19
23
42
72
15
19
73
16 (last)
13
79
Source: MORI - UK survey
‘Trust’ a two edged sword
Influence
Sins of omission
What can we do?
• Illustrate the clear links
• Articulate the major benefits of appropriate action
• Lead personal life styles which are climate-friendly
• Sharpen our advocacy
The Times
May 25, 2009
Climate change is the cholera of our era
The medical profession needs to wake up: we should be in the
vanguard of the green revolution
Muir Gray
...but what can I do?
• Ensure your MP, your line manager / Chief Executive, your
Chairman and non-exec.s, your local politicians know that MANY
health professionals are seriously concerned. Numbers matter.
• Join the Climate and Health Council
• Set up an Irish Climate and Health Council
• Sign the Climate and Health Council pledge at
www.climateandhealth.org
Why now, why us?
• Never waste a crisis
• A classic public health issue
• Health arguments contain good
news, come from a trusted
source, and can transform the
political context
John Holdren, White House
science advisor:
We are driving a car with bad brakes
in a fog and heading for a cliff. We
know for sure the cliff is out there. We
just don’t know exactly where it is.
Prudence would suggest we should
start putting on the brakes