Transcript PPT

COP 6 AND BEYOND
December 12, 2000
Wayne Moore
Environment Canada
Overview
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Context
What Happened at CoP 6
Where we Stand
Sinks
CoP 3: Kyoto, Dec. 1997
• CoP 3 at Kyoto was about identifying targets, baselines
and timetables.
• Under the Kyoto Protocol, Canada agreed to a 6%
reduction target on the understanding that it would have
– unfettered access to the Kyoto Mechanisms (marketbased flexibility instruments)
– comprehensive inclusion of carbon sinks (i.e., forest
management and agricultural soils) in the first
commitment period (2008-2012)
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CoP 6: The Hague, 13-24 Nov.
• CoP 6 was (is) about defining the rules for
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meeting Kyoto targets and Convention
commitments. We need an implementation plan.
These rules will largely determine whether or not
countries ratify the Kyoto Protocol.
CoP 4 outlined a range of decisions for CoP 6
reflecting priority issues of different blocs.
The final package of decisions will be adopted by
consensus (not unanimity).
Alternative outcome is lots of discussion, nothing
adopted and decisions rolled over to 2001 (May?).4
Three Negotiating Blocs
• Umbrella Group (UG):
– US is dominant player
– includes Canada, Japan, Australia, New Zealand,
Norway, Iceland, Russia and Ukraine
• European Union (EU):
– dominated by Germany, UK and France (current
President).
• G-77 and China:
– dominated by hard-liners Nigeria (current Chair) and
Saudi Arabia, but ultimately India, China and Brazil will
drive the deal.
– Alliance of Small Island States (AOSIS) has long been
influential.
– Least Developed Countries (LDCs) are increasingly so.
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Two negotiations in one
1. Developed vs Developing countries
– It’s about money and control over money
– Developing countries have no obligation to reduce
emissions under the Protocol, but were promised
financial assistance under the Convention
– The consensus rule gives them leverage and they are
making the most of it, by insisting on a role in deciding
how developed countries meet their targets
– Developed countries are prepared to give them some
money, but some want the major emitters among them
to eventually reduce emissions
Two negotiations in one
2. European Union vs Umbrella Group
– Ostensibly it’s about environmental integrity
– In practice it’s about competitiveness
– Cost to EU of meeting its targets will be very high, so it
wants to ensure that UG cost will be equally high
– EU says it wants to limit use of sinks and the Kyoto
Mechanisms and impose punitive consequences to
preserve the environmental integrity of the Protocol
– UG says it wants the flexibility it negotiated in Kyoto
to meet its targets at the lowest possible cost, consistent
with environmental integrity
Canada’s International
Negotiating Objectives
• To maximize Canada’s ability to meet its commitments at the
lowest possible cost through aggressive pursuit of the Kyoto
flexibility mechanisms, securing favorable terms for sinks
and other measures;
• To contribute to the achievement of global climate change
objectives and ensure a level playing field with Canada’s
competitors, by maximizing participation of key developed
and developing countries in the Kyoto Protocol; and
• To maximize opportunities for Canadian business in
international projects and initiatives on climate change.
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What Happened at Cop 6?
Negotiating process was totally
inadequate to reach a deal
• Technical progress only in the first week -- no political
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issues even engaged
Ministers couldn’t deal with the text produced by
negotiators (435 pages, over 1500 square brackets)
CoP 6 President let plenaries go on too long -- price of
peace with G-77 over process
Paper he introduced was seen as unbalanced by all
negotiating blocs - definite EU/G-77 bias from our
perspective
Real negotiations only started late final night
Internal Dynamics
• Few seemed ready to actually negotiate
• Most countries seemed to reach the end of
their mandate very quickly
• G-77 didn’t seem to move at all
• EU could not keep consensus together as
negotiations unfolded
• Atmosphere was nevertheless far more
constructive than in Kyoto
Media Coverage
• Blame for breakdown of talks directed at
EU (ineffectiveness/disarray) and US
(inflexibility/greed)
• Canadian positions on sinks, mechanisms
and nuclear heavily criticized
• We are seen both domestically and
internationally as seeking loopholes
Where we stand
• Negotiations suspended
• Next session likely 20 May-1 June in Bonn
• Prescott (UK) publicly blaming Voynet (France) for letting
EU-UG deal fall apart
• Voynet called Loy (US) to propose the «inner group»
reconvene within 2-3 weeks
• Technical talks between EU and Umbrella Group last week
in Ottawa
– limited progress but discussions ongoing.
– still a wide range of views, particularly within the EU.
– no future talks set.
Sinks
Why Sinks?
• The objective of the United Nations Framework
Convention on Climate Change is “stabilization of
greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere at a
level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic
interference with the climate system”
• “Each Party shall…limit its anthropogenic emissions of
greenhouse gases and protect and enhance its
greenhouse gas sinks and reservoirs”
• Sinks remove ghg from the atmosphere and reduce
atmospheric CO2 concentrations
Nov. 21, 11:00
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Canada’s Position on Sinks
• Our position is that Parties should:
– Take debits for carbon lost through deforestation
– Obtain credits for carbon sequestered through
afforestation
– Take responsibility for all changes in carbon
stocks (both positive and negative) on managed
forest lands and agricultural lands
Nov. 21, 11:00
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What Canada Proposes
• Agriculture land management:
• Includes cropland management, grazing land
management and shelterbelts
• Forest management:
• Includes only the forest we actively manage
Nov. 21, 11:00
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Why include forest management and
agriculture?
• Forests and agricultural lands are an important part of the
carbon cycle
• Increases incentives to protect and enhance existing sinks
and reservoirs using sustainable land management
practices (commitment to Convention and Kyoto)
• Provides substantial “co-benefits”
– practices that enhance carbon tend to improve soil, water and air
quality, reduce soil erosion and maintain biodiversity
• Provides balanced and comprehensive inclusion
– Sources from agricultural lands are already included
– Under Article 3.3, afforestation, reforestation and deforestation
(ARD) would total only 1 million ha
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Addressing concerns
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Reversibility (permanence)
Uncertainties
Measurement and verification (inventories)
Natural effects (vs. human induced)
Scale (size of potential sink/source)
Nov. 21, 11:00
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Reversibility
– The Concern:
• that sinks are not permanent
– Our View:
• this can be resolved through appropriate accounting
– Our solution:
• account for managed forest and agricultural lands on a
continuous basis (contiguous commitment periods)
• once an area is in the accounting system, all changes in
carbon stock, both positive and negative, are included
Nov. 21, 11:00
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Uncertainties and Measurement
– The Concern:
• that sinks cannot be measured with sufficient certainty
– Our View:
• uncertainties for sinks may be less than those of some
sources
• Can be addressed with measurement methodologies and
accounting (IPCC)
– Our Solution:
• Methodologies exist (both forests and ag soils)
• We have 8 years to implement and improve existing
systems
Nov. 21, 11:00
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Natural effects
• The Concern
• countries may obtain credit for indirect human activity
• Our View:
• Positive natural and indirect effects are scientifically
uncertain and likely small (limited research)
• They are difficult to measure and separate out
• Negative natural effects may also be large in Canada
(e.g., forest fires, pests, drought, flood)
• Our Solution:
• We propose to account for all effects, both natural and
human, both positive and negative, on our managed
forest and agricultural land. (better inventories)
• Need to address cyclical effects that extend beyond a
commitment period (research, monitoring)
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Scale
– The Concern:
• that the potential scale of 3.4 activities (especially
forest management) in first commitment period will
reduce effectiveness of Protocol
– Our View:
• For Canada, our proposal means that forests will only
contribute 10% of the effort we need to make to meet
Kyoto emission reduction targets.
• Agricultural soils would contribute only 5% of the
effort we need to make to meet our growing targets.
• Substantial domestic emission reductions still required
and underway. Canada has announced a $1.1B Plan.
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We still have some work to do
• ..but Parties have a better understanding of
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positions and priorities, flexibilities?
Wide gaps within the EU, convergence?
We need to be able to negotiate in good
faith with EU representative(s)
Need to engage G77/China
We continue to be optimistic
Some marketing/communication needed