Transcript or, Candidate B who says that climate change is an exaggerated

Survey of 49 Swing
Congressional Districts
Regarding Environmental Issues
August 26 - September 2, 2007
Ayres, McHenry & Associates, Inc. • 112 North Alfred Street • Alexandria, VA 22314
Telephone: 703.836.7666 • Web Site: www.ayresmchenry.com
Methodology
•
Survey of 1200 registered voters in 49 swing
congressional districts, defined by the
Rothenberg Political Report as “competitive”
•
•
25 Republican-held; 24 Democratic-held
•
Margin of error is ±2.83 percent
NOT a proxy for a national survey--this has
fewer minorities, plus an even party balance
at 28 percent Republican and 28 percent
Democrat, with more Independents than
usual--44 percent.
Republicans lost in 2006 not because the base
failed to turn out . . .
37%
Democrat
Republican
39%
39%
38%
36%
35%
27%
27%
Independent
37%
37%
38%
36%
26%
26%
23%
1998
Source: Exit Polls
2000
2002
2004
2006
. . . but because Independents went
overwhelmingly for Democrats.
Democrat
Republican
57%
48%
49%
47%
47%
48%
45%
45%
44%
39%
1998
Source: Exit Polls
2000
2002
2004
2006
General Attitudes about
Climate Change
Voters of all political persuasions think global
warming is probably happening.
Note: Results are based on a split sample of 600 respondents
Question: Do you think global warming probably is happening or probably is
not happening?
Voters of all three political persuasions think
human activity is a significant cause of global
warming.
Question: If global warming is happening, do you think human activity, such as
burning fossil fuels, is or is not a significant cause of global warming?
So what should Congress do?
Voters want Republicans to work with
Democrats to craft a bill cutting carbon.
Question: Which of the following comes closer to your view: a) Republicans in
Congress should work with Democrats to craft a bill to cut carbon emissions to
help the environment and make us less dependent on foreign oil; b) Republicans
in Congress should oppose Democrats whose efforts to cut carbon emissions
will hurt our economy and raise the price of oil.
Independent voters in swing districts think it is
very important for Congress to pass climate
change legislation.
Question: How important do you think it is for Congress to pass legislation to
combat climate change -- very important, somewhat important, or not too
important?
Independents are more concerned that Congress
will do too little on climate change and hurt our
environment than do too much and hurt our
economy.
Question: Which concerns you more: a) Congress will do too much on cutting
carbon emissions and hurt our economy; b) Congress will do too little on cutting
carbon emissions and hurt our environment.
On environmental issues, voters think the views
of scientists should be more important than the
views of constituents or party leaders.
Question: In voting on environmental issues, which do you think should be most
important for your member of Congress -- the views of scientists, the views of
constituents, or the views of party leaders?
Voters of all three political persuasions think
Congress should pass legislation that requires
carbon cuts.
Question: Do you think the United States Congress should or should not pass
legislation to combat climate change that requires cuts in carbon dioxide emissions
released into the atmosphere by cars, factories, and power plants?
What is the political impact of
climate legislation?
Voters in swing districts trust Democrats over
Republicans on environmental issues by a twoto-one margin, and three-to-one among
Independents . . .
Question: Which party, the Republicans or the Democrats, do you trust more to
handle environmental issues facing the country?
. . . but they would have a more favorable view of
their congressman if he or she supported
legislation cutting carbon . . .
Question: If your own congressman supported legislation cutting carbon
emissions, would you be more likely to vote for him or her, less likely to vote for
him or her, or would that have no effect on your vote?
. . . and a less favorable view if he or she blocked
it.
Question: If your own congressman blocked legislation cutting carbon emissions,
would you be more likely to vote for him or her, less likely to vote for him or her, or
would that have no effect on your vote?
Which messages on cutting
carbon are most persuasive?
A candidate who says climate change is a serious
problem has a significant advantage in swing
districts over one who says climate change is
exaggerated.
Question: For each of the following pairs of candidates, please tell me which one
you would be more likely to vote for: Candidate A who says that climate change is
a serious problem and the U.S. needs to take significant steps to combat it; or,
Candidate B who says that climate change is an exaggerated problem and the U.S.
does not need to take significant steps to combat it.
A candidate who argues that climate change is a
scientific fact has an overwhelming advantage
over one who says it’s a hoax.
Question: For each of the following pairs of candidates, please tell me which one
you would be more likely to vote for: Candidate A who says that climate change is a
fact based on scientific evidence; or, Candidate B who says that climate change is
a hoax dreamed up by radical environmentalists.
A candidate who wants the U.S. to lead the
world on carbon has an advantage over one who
wants to wait for China and India to act.
Question: For each of the following pairs of candidates, please tell me which one
you would be more likely to vote for: Candidate A who says that the U.S. should
lead the world in cutting carbon emissions regardless of what China and India do;
or, Candidate B who says that it makes no sense for the U.S. to act on its own to
cut carbon emissions if China and India have not yet committed to do so.
A candidate who argues that carbon cuts would
create jobs has an advantage over one who argues
that cuts would drive jobs overseas.
Question: For each of the following pairs of candidates, please tell me which one you
would be more likely to vote for: Candidate A who says that requiring cuts in carbon
emissions would create demand for innovative technologies to cut emissions that would
create new jobs in the U.S.; or, Candidate B who says that requiring cuts in carbon
emissions would drive U.S. jobs overseas to countries that do not require cuts.
A candidate who argues that carbon cuts make us less
dependent on foreign oil has an advantage over one
who argues that cuts make it harder to use coal.
Question: For each of the following pairs of candidates, please tell me which one
you would be more likely to vote for: Candidate A who says that requiring cuts in
carbon emissions helps America by making us less dependent on Middle Eastern
oil that helps fund Islamic terrorists; or, Candidate B who says that requiring cuts
in carbon emissions hurts America by making it harder to use coal, our most
abundant home-grown source of energy.
The following statements generate overwhelming
agreement among Republicans, Independents, and
Democrats.
Congress should spend less
time bickering, and more time
getting things done
Ranked by Percent Agree
All % | Rep % | Ind % | Dem %
97% | 97% | 97% | 98%
Cutting carbon emissions will
make our air cleaner
93% | 88% | 94% | 98%
Cutting carbon emissions will
help us be good stewards of
the earth for future generations
91% | 85% | 92% | 95%
Cutting carbon emissions will
lead to new technologies &
alternative sources of energy
91% | 83% | 93% | 95%
Question: Now I am going to read a list of statements. For each one, would you
please tell me if you strongly agree, somewhat agree, somewhat disagree, or
strongly disagree with that statement:
The two most significant potential benefits from
cutting carbon are making us less dependent on
foreign oil and dealing with climate change.
All % | Rep % | Ind % | Dem %
26% | 29% | 27% | 24%
25% | 14% | 28% | 33%
20% | 23% | 19% | 18%
8% | 9% | 7% | 9%
7% | 9% | 6% | 4%
6% | 7% | 6% | 4%
Question: Which of the following potential benefits of cutting carbon emissions do you
think is the most important:
Survey of 49 Swing
Congressional Districts
Regarding Environmental Issues
August 26 - September 2, 2007
Ayres, McHenry & Associates, Inc. • 112 North Alfred Street • Alexandria, VA 22314
Telephone: 703.836.7666 • Web Site: www.ayresmchenry.com