Transcript the_science_of_climate_change

The Science of Climate Change and
how you can contribute to Education
for Sustainable Development (ESD)
Dr Kat Eames
Researcher (Research & Curriculum Lead)
Kingston University Sustainability Hub
Stream: Partnership and Engagement
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Three take home messages
1. A little more Climate Change Science info
2. Some answers to climate questions
3. Some ideas of how you can teach ESD
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The Science of Climate Change and
how you can contribute to ESD
Dr Kat Eames
Researcher (Research & Curriculum Lead)
Kingston University Sustainability Hub
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To get us started, how do you think global temperatures have varied:1. Since 2000?
2. Since 1850?
3. In the last 1,000 years?
4. In the last 10,000 years?
5. And finally over the last 400,000 years?
Temperature
Past
Time
Present
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0.7
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Temperature Anomaly ℃
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Jan-00
Jan-01
Jan-02
Jan-03
Jan-04
Jan-05
Jan-06
Jan-07
Jan-08
Jan-09
Jan-10
Date
Data from HadCRUT3
http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/cru/data/temperature/
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Figure 1. A clear correlation can be seen between the three global-average
temperature records, which were created independently. They all show a marked
warming trend, particularly over the past three decades. Data provided courtesy
of NCDC/NESDIS/NOAA and NASA GISS.
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(dark blue 1000-1991): P.D. Jones et al. (1998).
(blue 1000-1980): M.E. Mann, R.S. Bradley, and M.K. Hughes (1999).
(light blue 1000-1965): Crowley and Lowery (2000).
(lightest blue 1402-1960): K.R. Briffa, T.J. Osborn, et al. (2001).
(light green 831-1992): J. Esper et al. (2002).
(yellow 200-1980): M.E. Mann and P.D. Jones (2003).
(orange 200-1995): P.D. Jones and M.E. Mann (2004).
(red-orange 1500-1980): S. Huang (2004).
(red 1-1979): A. Moberg et al. (2005).
(dark red 1600-1990): J.H. Oerlemans (2005).
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(black 1856-2004): Instrumental data HadCRUT2
For inset plot and for
matching temperature scale
to modern values colours
same as on previous slide
(dark blue) Sediment core ODP 658, interpreted sea surface temperature, Eastern Tropical
Atlantic: M. Zhao, et al. (1995).
(blue) Vostok ice core, interpreted paleotemperature, Central Antarctica: Petit J.R., et al. (1999).
(light blue) GISP2 ice core, interpreted paleotemperature, Greenland: Alley, R.B. (2000).
(green) Kilimanjaro ice core, δ18O, Eastern Central Africa: Thompson, L.G., et al. (2002).
(yellow) Sediment core PL07-39PC, interpreted sea surface temperature, North Atlantic: Lea,
D.W., D.K. Pak, L.C. Peterson, and K.A. Hughen (2003).
(orange) Pollen distributions, interpreted temperature, Europe: B.A.S. Davis, S. Brewer, A.C.
Stevenson, J. Guiot (2003).
(red) EPICA ice core, δDeuterium, Central Antarctica: EPICA community members (2004).
(dark red) Composite sediment cores, interpreted sea surface temperature, Western Tropical
Pacific: L.D. Stott, et al. (2004).
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How did you do?
Key surprises/thoughts:
• Thought there had been more change in last 10 years
• Didn’t know the size of the changes in temperature
• Hadn’t realised the ice age timings
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How do we know?
• Instrumental records
₋ Weather enthusiasts who set up official stations recording how,
when and where they collected data, (some last 50 years +)
₋ Ships logged water temperature during their journeys, again
recording how, when and where measurements taken
Key Ref: Brohan, P., J.J. Kennedy, I. Harris, S.F.B. Tett and P.D.
Jones, 2006: Uncertainty estimates in regional and global
observed temperature changes: a new dataset from 1850. J.
Geophysical Research 111, D12106, doi:10.1029/2005JD006548
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How do we know? :• Instrumental records
• Climate Proxies
₋ Tree Rings (dendroclimatology)
₋ Sea floor sediments
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How do we know?
• Instrumental records
• Climate Proxies
₋ Tree Rings (dendroclimatology)
₋ Sea floor sediments
₋ Geology
₋ Ice cores (pollen, gas, water isotopes)
Geological profile
showing drop stones
Glacial ice core showing
bubbles of old atmosphere
Vostok ice core results
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How do we know?
• Instrumental records
• Climate Proxies
₋ Tree Rings (dendroclimatology)
₋ Sea floor sediments
₋ Geology
₋ Ice cores (pollen, gas, water isotopes)
₋ Cave formations (stalagmites, stalactites and flowstones)
₋ Other written/historical records
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Natural forcings that cause these variations
• Milankovitch variations
₋ Eccentricity
₋ Obliquity (Axial Tilt)
₋ Precession
100,000 year cycle
40,000 year cycle
26,000 year cycle
http://www.sciencecourseware.o
rg/eec/GlobalWarming/Tutorials
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/Milankovitch/
Natural forcings that cause these variations
• Milankovitch variations
• Solar
Sunspot imaged
on 2004-06-22
Though sunspots are dark the
area around them emits higher
than average radiation so net
increase in output
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(light blue) Law Dome CO 2 Data: ftp://ftp.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/paleo/icecore/antarctica/law/law_co2.txt
(blue) Mauna Loa CO2 data:http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/co2_mm_mlo.dat
(red) Temperature Data: http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/cru/data/temperature/hadcrut3gl.txt
(orange) Sunspot data:http://sidc.oma.be/DATA/yearssn.dat
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Natural forcings that cause these variations
• Milankovitch variations
• Solar
• Volcanic
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Natural forcings that cause these variations
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•
•
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Milankovitch variations
Solar
Volcanic
Feedback loops
Positive feedbacks especially important as these enhance
changes that have already occurred
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• 0.04% of our atmosphere is CO2
• Atmospheric CO2 naturally oscillates
• Atmospheric CO2 and global temperatures tightly coupled
• Background atmospheric CO2 : 172 – 300 ppm over past ~800,000 years
• CO2/CH4 may significantly contribute to the glacial–interglacial changes
(Petit, et al, 1999)
Methane (CH4)
Temperature
CO2
Siegenthaler et al 2005, Spanhi et al 2005 21
August 2011, 390 ppm (NOAA)
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Figure 1. A clear correlation can be seen between the three global-average
temperature records, which were created independently. They all show a marked
warming trend, particularly over the past three decades. Data provided courtesy
of NCDC/NESDIS/NOAA and NASA GISS.
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Black line = measured global temperature changes
Blue line = changes expected naturally
Pink line = changes expected due to nature and humans
© IPCC 2007: WG1-AR4 24
• Central England Temperature up by 1°C since
1970s
• Less rainfall in the summer
• More winter rainfall falling in fewer events
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• More severe windstorms
• Sea temperatures up by 0.7°C since 1980s
• Sea levels have risen by 1mm/yr in 20th Century
(more in 1990s and 2000s)
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Argentina's Upsala Glacier was once the biggest in South
America, but it is now disappearing at a rate of 200 metres
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per year.
For the future.....
• Global temperatures will rise by 1.4 to 5.8°C
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For the future.....
Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) used in TAR and AR4
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IPCC AR4 Figure 10.26 Working Group 1 report
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For the future.....
• Global temperatures will rise by 1.4 to 5.8°C
• Sea-level is expected to rise by around 35cm
• Change in climate and weather patterns
• Increase in severity and frequency of extreme weather events
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For the future.....
• High Impact, low probability events
₋ Gulf stream shift
₋ Collapse of West Antarctic ice sheet
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• To reduce the impacts of climate change (?)
• To reduce Ocean Acidification
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Atmospheric CO2
Atmospheric CO2
Dissolved CO2
CO2 + H2O
H2CO3
HCO3- + H+
Seawater pH
CO32- + 2H+
[H+] increases, [CO32-] decreases, pH decreases
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• To reduce the impacts of climate change (?)
• To reduce Ocean Acidification
• To reduce our reliance on fossil fuels (London would run out of
food in 3 days if we had no petrol/diesel)
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The Science of Climate Change and
how you can contribute to ESD
Dr Kat Eames
Researcher (Research & Curriculum Lead)
Kingston University Sustainability Hub
Stream: Partnership and Engagement
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Workshop Part 1.
In small groups (4-5)
1. What questions do you have/have you
been asked about climate change?
2. How would you answer them now?
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Workshop Part 2.
Climate Change is only a very small part of
Education for Sustainable Development
With teaching being the core business for
Universities and Colleges it is important
to incorporate sustainability in the
curricula
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Workshop Part 2.
In small groups (4-5)
1. Have you been asked to contribute to
ESD?
2. If yes, share your experiences..
If no, how do you feel you could?
3. What are the barriers?
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Three take home messages
1. A little more Climate Change Science info
2. Some answers to common CC questions
3. Some ideas of how you can teach ESD
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Your next steps – making the most
of your EAUC Membership…
1. Resources - visit the dedicated Education for Sustainability section
2.
on the EAUC resource bank
Networks - join SHED, the leading cross sector Community of
Practice in the UK for Education for Sustainability (EfS).
Developed in collaboration with Higher Education Academy.
•
Find out more about this group at 5pm tomorrow – see programme
for details
3. Recognition - enter the 2012 Green Gown Awards skills and/or
4.
courses categories. Entries open summer 2012
Measure and improve - sign up to LiFE for help on embedding
ESD into your institution www.thelifeindex.org.uk. EAUC Members
receive a significant discount
•
LiFE offers a dedicated ‘learning and teaching’ framework
Membership matters at www.eauc.org.uk
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Clark, D. H. & Stephenson, F. R. (1978) An Interpretation of the Pre-Telescopic
Sunspot Records from the Orient. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Astronomical
Society, Vol. 19, p.387
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Case Study of Ice as a Climate Proxy
Isotopic fractionation
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Natural forcings that cause these variations
• Milankovitch variations
• Solar
• Volcanic
Global-mean monthly temperature for the period 1980-1999, showing the
effects of the eruption of Pinatubo in 1991. The upper graph shows the complete
global-mean temperature record as context.
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IPCC Figure TS.6. Patterns of linear global
temperature trends over the period 1979 to
2005 estimated at the surface (left), and for the
troposphere from satellite records (right). Grey
indicates areas with incomplete data.
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Key causes of sea level change:• Land movements e.g. UK
• Water storage on land (as ice, in rivers/lakes, etc)
• Thermal expansion
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IPCC AR4 Figure 10.26 Working Group 1 report
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Regional Economic
Global Economic
balanced
Global Environmental
Thermohaline circulation driven by
temperature and salt (salinity changes) 54
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Could raise sea levels by 3 metres
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=skMO4GN1rns
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Your next steps – making the most
of your EAUC Membership…
1. Resources - visit the dedicated Education for Sustainability section
2.
on the EAUC resource bank
Networks - join SHED, the leading cross sector Community of
Practice in the UK for Education for Sustainability (EfS).
Developed in collaboration with Higher Education Academy.
•
Find out more about this group at 5pm tomorrow – see programme
for details
3. Recognition - enter the 2012 Green Gown Awards skills and/or
4.
courses categories. Entries open summer 2012
Measure and improve - sign up to LiFE for help on embedding
ESD into your institution www.thelifeindex.org.uk. EAUC Members
receive a significant discount
•
LiFE offers a dedicated ‘learning and teaching’ framework
Membership matters at www.eauc.org.uk
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