Transcript Gas ~ 8.0p

NBS-3B1Y Strategic Corporate Sustainability
10th December 2013
UK Energy Futures: The Triple Challenges of
Energy Security, Climate Change and Affordability
Recipient of James Watt Gold Medal
5th October 2007
Keith Tovey (杜伟贤) M.A., PhD, CEng, MICE, Cenv
Reader Emeritus in Environmental Sciences [email protected]
1
Arctic Sea Ice Cover 1979 - 2012
Minimum Summer Sea Ice in 1979 ~ 7.01 million sq km
• Red line outlines extent for reference
• Minimum Summer Sea Ice in 2012 ~ 3.44 million sq km
a loss of 51% in 33 years
• Significantly lower in 2012 than average minimum
• Source http://www.nasa.gov/topics/earth/features/2012-seaicemin.html
•
2
Is Global Warming natural
or man-made?
Natural causes
• Earth’s Orbit
• Sunspot Activity
• Volcanic Eruptions
• Etc.
Reasonable agreement up
to ~ 1960
Man-made causes do not
show particularly good
agreement in early part of
period.
BUT including both manmade and natural gives
good agreement
3
Temperature variations in last 160 years
0.60
0.40
below average
Deviation deg C
above average
0.20
Trend Line
0.00
-0.20
-0.40
-0.60
1850
1870
1890
1910
1930
1950
1970
1990
2010
www.nasa.gov/home/hqnews/.../HQ_1
1-014_Warmest_Year.htm
4
Energy Security is a potentially critical issue for the UK
Until 2004, the UK was a net exporter of gas.
Currently only 50% now provided by UK sources.
Gas Production and demand in UK
Billion Cubic Metres
120
100
Reduction because
of switch back to
coal
80
60
40
20
0
1998
Actual UK production
Actual UK demand
Projected production
Projected demand
Actual Production
Actual Demand
2003
Import Gap
2008
2013
2018
In early March 2013, technical issues with pipe line from Norway
and restrictions on LNG imports made UK gas supply tight.
In late March things became even more critical with less than 1 days
supply available.
5
Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Non-Renewable Methods
Potential contribution to electricity supply in
2020 and drivers/barriers
Gas CCGT
0 - 80% (at present 45- Available now (but gas
50%)
is running out)
Langeled Line
to Norway
12
p/kWh
8
~2p +
9th May
2011 (*)
8.0p
[5 - 11]
Wholesale Electricity Prices
14
10
Energy
Review
2002
Oil reaches
$130 a barrel
Severe Cold
Spells
UK no longer
self sufficient
in gas
?
6
4
2
0
2001
2003
2005
2007
2009
2011
* Energy Review 2011 – Climate Change Committee May 2011
2013
6
Energy Security is a potentially critical issue for the UK
140
Gas Production and Demand in UK
Billion cubic metres
120
Only 50% now provided by
UK sources.
100
80
Import Gap
60
Actual UK production
40
Actual UK demand
Projected production
Projected demand
20
Warning issued on 17th April
2012 that over-reliance on
Norway and imported LNG
from Qatar will lead to price
rises by end of year
0
1998
2002
2006
2010
14
2014
Wholesale Electricity Prices
Langeled Line
to Norway
12
Oil reaches
$130 a barrel
UK no longer
self sufficient
in gas
8
Severe Cold
Spells
10
p/kWh
Prices have
become much
more volatile since
UK is no longer
self sufficient in
gas.
2018
6
4
2
7
0
2001
2003
2005
2007
2009
2011
2013
What is the magnitude of the CO2 problem?
50
45
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
Developing
EU
Other OECD
UK
France
Transition
Oil Producing
Pakistan
India
Namibia
Brazil
Turkey
China
Mexico
Lithuania
Sweden
Switzerland
France
Ukraine
South_Africa
Libya
Norway
Italy
Greece
UK
Denmark
Japan
Germany
Russia
Netherlands
US
UAE
Qatar
tonnes/capita
How does UK compare with other countries?
Why do some countries emit more CO2 than others?
Per capita Carbon Emissions
8
Poland
India
Australia
Libya
China
Italy
800
Czech Republic
Other OECD
USA
Oil Exporting
Denmark
EU
Portugal
1000
Developing
Germany
UK
Netherlands
Japan
Spain
UAE
Qatar
Luxembourg
Belgium
Austria
France
600
Sweden
Switzerland
Norway
gms CO2 / kWH
Carbon Emissions and Electricity
Carbon Emission Factor in Electricity Generation
1200
UK
France
400
200
0
9
Mean Daily Electricity Generation in November
1200
2009 (GWh)
1200
2010 (GWh)
1200
1000
1000
1000
800
800
800
600
600
600
400
400
400
200
200
200
0
0
0
1 5 9 13 17 21 25 29
1 5 9 13 17 21 25 29
1200
2012 (Gwh)
1200
1000
1000
800
800
600
600
400
400
200
200
0
0
1 5 9 13 17 21 25 29
2013 (Gwh)
1 5 9 13 17 21 25 29
2011 (Gwh)
1 5 9 13 17 21 25 29
Interconnectors
Other
Hydro
Wind
Oil
Coal
CCGT
Nuclear
Daily Electricity Generation in November
Interconnectors
Other
Hydro
2009
1.1%
0%
2.6%
2010
1.8%
0%
1.9%
2011
1.5%
0%
2.3%
2012
4.0%
1.5%
2.3%
2013
5.6%
0.9%
2.2%
Wind
Oil
Coal
1.3%
0%
27%
1.7%
0%
37%
4.2%
0%
43.5%
5.3% 7.0%
0%
0%
46.3% 38.4%
CCGT
Nuclear
49.7% 41.8% 32.9%
18.3% 15.7% 15.6%
25.0% 26.6%
16.7% 19.2%
What is the magnitude of the CO2 problem?
How do UK and Saudi Arabia compare with other countries?
Why do some countries emit more CO2 than others?
EU
Developing
OECD
Oil Producing
World Average
Saudi
Arabia
France UK
India
Brazil
Mexico
Sweden
Portugal
China
Switzerland
France
Spain
Italy
UK
Austria
Norway
Libya
Denmark
Japan
Germany
Belgium
Netherlands
Russia
Saudi Arabia
USA
Australia
UAE
Qatar
45
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
Per capita Carbon Emissions (tonnes per capita)
12
12
How does electricity consumption vary between countries?
per capita electricty consumption (kWh/annum)
25000
20000
EU
OECD
15000
Developing
10000
Oil Producing
0
•
•
India
Mexico
Brazil
China
Poland
Libya
Italy
UK
Spain
Russia
Denmark
Germany
France
Japan
Saudi Arabia
Belgium
Switzerland
Australia
USA
Sweden
Qatar
UAE
Norway
5000
Why do very similar countries (e.g. Norway and Sweden)
have very different levels of consumption?
What environmental impact might these differences have?13
Impact of Electricity Generation on Carbon Emissions.
Approximate Carbon Emission factors during electricity generation
including fuel extraction, fabrication and transport.
Fuel
Approximate
emission factor
per kWh
Coal
~900 – 1000g
Depending on grade and
efficiency of power station
~800-900
Depending on grade and
efficiency of power station
Oil
•
•
Comments
Gas (Steam)
~600g
Conventional Steam Station
Gas (CCGT)
~400g
Most modern may be as low as
380g
Nuclear
5 – 10g
Depending on reactor type
Renewables
~0
Overall UK
~530g
For wind, PV, hydro
Varies on hour by hour basis
depending on generation mix
Transmission/Distribution losses
UK ~ 8%:
Saudi Arabia 9%:
India ~ 24%
14
CO2 Emissions and Electricity (kg/kWh)
1
0.8
EU
Developing
OECD
Oil Producing
World Average 0.550
Saudi
Arabia
UK
0.6
France
0.4
0.2
Switzerland
Norway
Sweden
Brazil
France
Austria
Belgium
Spain
Russia
Qatar
Italy
Japan
UAE
UK
Netherlands
Germany
USA
Mexico
Denmark
Saudi Arabia
Libya
China
Australia
India
Poland
0
Overall: UK ~500 gm/kWh: France ~80 gm/kWh Saudi Arabia ~700 gm/kWh
15
15
Electricity Generation Mix in selected Countries
UK
Switzerland
Russia
France
Norway
Brazil
Germany
Japan
China
Sweden
USA
India
Poland
Saudi
Arabia
Coal
Oil
Gas
Nuclear
Hydro/ Tidal/Wave
Other Renewables
16
Biofuels/Waste
16
Conventional Generation of Electricity
Largest loss in
Power Station
1.0 Unit
Overall efficiency ~ 35%
Diagram illustrates situation with conventional generation
using coal, oil, gas or nuclear
17
Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Non-Renewable Methods
Potential contribution to electricity supply in
2020 and drivers/barriers
0 - 80% (at present 45- Available now (but gas
50%)
is running out)
Gas CCGT
nuclear fission
(long term)
Energy
Review
2002
9th May
2011 (*)
8.0p
[5 - 11]
~2p +
0 - 15% (France 80%) - new inherently safe
(currently 18% and
designs - some
2.5 - 3.5p
falling)
development needed
7.75p
[5.5 - 10]
Installed Capacity (MW)
notisavailable
earliest
Nuclearfusion
New Build assumes
one new station
completeduntil
each2040
year at
after
2020.not until
nuclear
unavailable
2050 for significant impact
14000
12000
New Build ?
[7.5 - 15]p
Available now: Not
Projected
Coal
currently
~40% but viable without Carbon
unlikely
"Clean10000
Coal"
2.5
3.5p
Actual
scheduled
to fall
Capture &
before 2025
-
?
8000
Sequestration
6000
Carbon sequestration either by burying it or using methanolisation to create a new
4000 fuel will not be available at scale required until mid 2020s if then
transport
2000
0
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
* Energy Review 2011 – Climate Change Committee May 2009
18
Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Renewable
Potential contribution to electricity supply
in 2020 and drivers/barriers
On Shore Wind
~25% [~15000 x 3
available now for
MW turbines] commercial exploitation
2002
(Gas ~ 2p)
May 2011
(Gas ~ 8.0p) *
~ 2+p
~8.2p
+/- 0.8p
1.5MW Turbine
At peak output provides sufficient electricity for
3000 homes
On average has provided electricity for 700 –
850 homes depending on year
Future prices from
* Renewable Energy Review – 9th May 2011
Climate Change Committee
19
Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Renewable
Potential contribution to electricity supply in
2020 and drivers/barriers
~25% [~15000 x 3
available now for
MW turbines] commercial exploitation
some technical
Off Shore Wind
development needed to
25 - 50%
reduce costs.
On Shore Wind
May 2011
2002
(Gas ~ 2p) (Gas ~ 8.0p) *
~ 2+p
~8.2p
+/- 0.8p
~2.5 - 3p
12.5p +/- 2.5
Climate Change Committee (9th May 2011) see offshore wind as
being very expensive and recommends reducing planned
expansion by 3 GW and increasing onshore wind by same amount
Scroby Sands has a Load factor of 28.8% - 30% but
nevertheless produced sufficient electricity on average for
2/3rds of demand of houses in Norwich. At Peak time
sufficient for all houses in Norwich and Ipswich
20
Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Renewable
Potential contribution to electricity supply in
2020 and drivers/barriers
~25% [~15000 x 3
available now for
MW turbines] commercial exploitation
some technical
Off Shore Wind
development needed to
25 - 50%
reduce costs.
On Shore Wind
May 2011
2002
(Gas ~ 2p) (Gas ~ 8.0p) *
~ 2+p
~8.2p
+/- 0.8p
~2.5 - 3p
12.5p +/- 2.5
Micro Hydro Scheme operating
on Siphon Principle installed at
Itteringham Mill, Norfolk.
Rated capacity 5.5 kW
Hydro (mini micro)
5%
technically mature, but
limited potential
2.5 - 3p
Future prices from Climate Change Report (May 2011) or RO/FITs where not
otherwise specified
11p for
<2MW
projects
21
Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Renewable
Potential contribution to electricity supply in 2020 and
drivers/barriers
May 2011
2002
(Gas ~ 2p) (Gas ~ 8.0p) *
~20% [~15000 x 3
available now for
~ 2+p
On Shore
WindChange Report suggests that 1.6 TWh (0.4%) might
Climate
be
MW turbines] commercial exploitation
achieved by 2020 which is equivalent to ~ 2.0 GW.
some technical
Off Shore Wind
development needed to ~2.5 - 3p
20 - 40%
reduce costs.
Hydro (mini micro)
Photovoltaic
5%
technically mature, but
limited potential
<<5% even
available, but much further
assuming 10 GW of research needed to bring down
installation
costs significantly
~8.2p
+/- 0.8p
12.5p +/- 2.5
2.5 - 3p
11p for
<2MW
projects
15+ p
25p +/-8
11-13p (2013
projection)
Future prices from Climate Change Report (May 2011) or RO/FITs where not
otherwise specified
22
Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Renewable
Potential contribution to electricity supply in
2020 and drivers/barriers
~25% [~15000 x 3
available now for
On Shore Wind
Transport Fuels:
MW turbines] commercial exploitation
• Biodiesel?
some technical
Off Shore Wind
development needed to
25 - 50%
• Bioethanol?
reduce costs.
• Compressed gas from
Hydro (mini technically mature, but
methane from
waste.
5%
micro)
limited potential
Photovoltaic
Sewage, Landfill,
Energy Crops/
Biomass/Biogas
<<5% even assuming
10 GW of installation
??5%
May 2011
2002
(Gas ~ 2p) (Gas ~ 8.0p) *
~ 2+p
~8.2p
+/- 0.8p
~2.5 - 3p
12.5p +/- 2.5
2.5 - 3p
11p for
<2MW
projects
available, but much further
research needed
bring
Totoprovide
down costs significantly
p electricity
25p +/-8
5%15+
of UK
needs will require an area the size of
Norfolk and Suffolk devoted solely
to biomass
available, but research needed
in some areas e.g. advanced
gasification
2.5 - 4p
Future prices from Climate Change Report (May 2011) or RO/FITs where not
otherwise specified
7 - 13p
depending on
technology
23
Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Renewable
Potential contribution to electricity supply in 2020 and
2002
May 2011
drivers/barriers
(Gas ~ 2p) (Gas ~ 8.0p)
On Shore Wind
~20%
available now
~8.2p +/- 0.8p
~ 2+p
Off Shore
available but costly
20 - 40%
~2.5 - 3p 12.5p +/- 2.5
Wind
11p for
Small Hydro
5%
limited potential
2.5 - 3p
No<2MW
sound
onprojects
video
available, but very
Photovoltaic
<<5%
15+ p
25p +/-8
costly
available, but research
Biomass
??5%
2.5 - 4p
7 - 13p
needed
currently < 10
technology limited Wave/Tidal MW may be 1000
major development not
Stream
- 2000 MW
before 2020
(~0.1%)
4 - 8p
Future prices from Climate Change Report (May 2011) or RO/FITs where not
otherwise specified
19p +/- 6
Tidal 26.5p
+/- 7.5p Wave
24
Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Renewable
Potential contribution to electricity supply in 2020 and
2002
May 2011
drivers/barriers
(Gas ~ 2p) (Gas ~ 8.0p)
On Shore Wind
~20%
available now
~8.2p +/- 0.8p
~ 2+p
Off Shore
available but costly ScotRenewables
20 - 40%
~2.5 - 3p 12.5p +/- 2.5
Wind
Floating device
11p for
Small Hydro
5%
limited potential
2.5 - 3p
<2MW
projects
Video of device
available, but very
Photovoltaic
<<5%
15+ p
25p +/-8
sound to
this
video,
but it
costlyThere is no Open
Hydro
some
of technicalities
of device
available, but demonstrates
research Video
commissioned
off
Biomass
??5%
2.5
4p
7
- 13p
of the device
needed
Eday – Sept 2007
There is no sound to this video,
but it demonstrates
some seen
of
Alstom Device
at
technicalities
of
the
device
Hatston April 2013
currently < 10
technology limited Wave/Tidal MW may be 1000
major development not
Stream
- 2000 MW
before 2020
(~0.1%)
4 - 8p
19p +/- 6
Tidal 26.5p
+/- 7.5p Wave
Future prices from Climate Change Report (May 2011) or RO/FITs where not otherwise
specified
25
Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Renewable
Potential contribution to electricity supply in 2020 and 2002 (Gas May 2011
drivers/barriers
~ 2p)
(Gas ~ 8.0p)
On Shore Wind
~25%
availableSevern
now Barrage/
~8.2p
+/- 0.8p
~ 2+p
Mersey
Barrages
Off Shore
available buthave
costlybeen considered frequently
25 - 50%
~2.5 - 3p 12.5p +/- 2.5
Wind
e.g. pre war – 1970s, 2009
11p for
Severn Barrage
5-8%
Small Hydro
5%
limited potential
2.5could
- 3p provide
<2MW
of UK electricity needs
projects
available, butInvery
Orkney –15+
Churchill
Barriers
Photovoltaic
<<5%
p
25p +/-8
costly
Output ~80 000 GWh per annum available, but research
Sufficient for 13500
Biomass
??5%
2.5 - 4phouses 7in- 13p
needed
Orkney but there are only 4000 in
currently < 10
technologyOrkney.
limited - Controversy in bringing
19p +/- 6
Wave/Tidal MW may be 1000
major development
not
4 - 8p
Tidal 26.5p
cables south.
Stream
- 2000 MW
before 2020
+/- 7.5p
Wave
Would save 40000 tonnes
of CO
2
(~0.1%)
technology available but unlikely for
2020. Construction time ~10 years.
Tidal Barrages
5 - 15%
26p +/-5
In 2010 Government abandoned
plans for development
Future prices from Climate Change Report (May 2011) or RO/FITs where not
otherwise specified
26
Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Renewable
Potential contribution to electricity supply in 2020 and 2002 (Gas May 2011
drivers/barriers
~ 2p)
(Gas ~ 8.0p)
On Shore
~25%
available now
~8.2p +/- 0.8p
~ 2+p
Wind
Off Shore
available but costly
25 - 50%
~2.5 - 3p 12.5p +/- 2.5
Wind
11p for
Small Hydro
5%
limited potential
2.5 - 3p
<2MW
available, but very
Photovoltaic
<<5%
15+ p
25p +/-8
costly
available, but research
Biomass
??5%
2.5 - 4p
7 - 13p
needed
currently < 10 MW technology limited Wave/Tidal
19p Tidal
??1000 - 2000 MW major development not
4 - 8p
Stream
26.5p Wave
(~0.1%)
before 2020
Tidal Barrages
Geothermal
5 - 15%
In 2010 Government abandoned
plans for development
26p +/-5
unlikely for electricity generation before 2050 if then -not to be
confused with ground sourced heat pumps which consume electricity
Future prices from Climate Change Report (May 2011) or RO/FITs where not
otherwise specified
27
Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Renewable
Potential contribution to electricity supply in 2020 and 2002 (Gas May 2011
drivers/barriers
~ 2p)
(Gas ~ 8.0p)
On Shore
~25%
available now
~8.2p +/- 0.8p
~ 2+p
Wind
Off Shore
available but costly
25 - 50%
~2.5 - 3p 12.5p +/- 2.5
Wind
11p for
Small Hydro
5%
limited potential
2.5 - 3p
<2MW
available, but very
Photovoltaic
<<5%
15+ p
25p +/-8
costly
available, but research
Biomass
??5%
2.5 - 4p
7 - 13p
needed
currently < 10 MW technology limited Wave/Tidal
19p Tidal
??1000 - 2000 MW major development not
4 - 8p
Stream
26.5p Wave
(~0.1%)
before 2020
Tidal Barrages
Geothermal
5 - 15%
In 2010 Government abandoned
plans for development
26p +/-5
unlikely for electricity generation before 2050 if then -not to be
confused with ground sourced heat pumps which consume electricity
Future prices from Climate Change Report (May 2011) or RO/FITs where not
otherwise specified
28
Our Choices: They are difficult
Do we want to exploit available renewables i.e onshore/offshore wind
and biomass?.
Photovoltaics, tidal, wave are not options for next 10 - 20 years.
[very expensive or technically immature or both]
If our answer is NO
Do we want to see a renewal of nuclear power ?
Are we happy with this and the other attendant risks?
If our answer is NO
Do we want to return to using coal?
• then carbon dioxide emissions will rise significantly
• unless we can develop carbon sequestration within 10 years
UNLIKELY – confirmed by Climate Change Committee
[9th May 2011]
If our answer to coal is NO
Do we want to leave things are they are and see continued
exploitation of gas for both heating and electricity generation?
>>>>>>
29
Our Choices: They are difficult
If our answer is YES
By 2020
• we will be dependent on GAS
for around 70% of our heating and electricity
imported from countries like Russia, Iran, Iraq, Libya, Algeria
Are we happy with this prospect? >>>>>>
If not:
We need even more substantial cuts in energy use.
Or are we prepared to sacrifice our future to effects of Global
Warming? - the North Norfolk Coal Field?
Do we wish to reconsider our stance on renewables?
Inaction or delays in decision making will lead us down the GAS
option route and all the attendant Security issues that raises.
We must take a coherent integrated approach in our decision making –
not merely be against one technology or another
30
Our looming over-dependence on gas for electricity generation
Version suitable for Office 2007 & 2010
TWH (billions of units (kWh))
600
500
400
• 1 new nuclear station completed each year after 2020.
• 1 new coal station with CCS each year after 2020
• 1 million homes fitted with PV each year from 2020
- 40% of homes fitted by 2030
• 15+ GW of onshore wind by 2030 cf 4 GW now
• Limited electric cars or heat pumps
Oil
Imported
Gas
UK Gas
300
Existing Coal
200
Oil
Existing Nuclear
Existing Coal
100
Fracked
Gas
Offshore
Wind
Onshore
Wind
Other
Renewables
New Coal ?
Data for modelling derived from DECC & Climate Change Committee (2011)
- allowing for significant deploymentExisting
of electric
vehicles and heat pumps by 2030.New Nuclear?
Nuclear
0
1970
Data for modelling derived from DECC & Climate Change Committee (2011)
- allowing for significant deployment of electric vehicles and heat pumps by 2030.
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
2030
Data for demand derived from DECC & Climate Change Committee (2011)
- allowing for significant deployment of electric vehicles and heat pumps 31
by 2030.
Sustainable Options for the future?
Energy Generation
•
Solar thermal - providing hot water - most suitable for domestic
installations, hotels – generally less suitable for other businesses
Average Daily Output
(kWh)
Output for a 1.25kW PV Array
•
•
•3 The more hot water you use the
2 more solar heat you get!
•
Renewable Heat Incentive available
from 2012
0
Overall Solar Energy Gain
Jan
Mar May
Jul
1
Sep
Nov
5
2007
2008
2009
Solar PV – providing electricity 5- suitable for all sizes of installation
4
2010
2011
2012
4
Area required for 1 kW peak varies
from ~ 5.5 to 8.5 sqm
3
depending on technology and manufacturer
3
Approximate annual estimate of22 generation
= installed capacity * 8760 *110.095
hours in year0
load/capacity
factorJulof 9.5%
Jan
Mar
May
Sep
Nov
kWh per day
•
•5 Example 2 panel ( 2.6 sqm ) in
2011
Norwich
– generates 826kWh/year
2012
4 (average
over 7 years).
32
Raising Awareness
On average each person in
UK causes the emission of 9
tonnes of CO2 each year.
5 hot air balloons per person
per year.
"Nobody made a greater mistake
than he who did nothing because he
thought he could do only a little."
Edmund Burke (1727 – 1797)
33
How many people know what
9 tonnes of CO2 looks like?
Raising Awareness
• A tumble dryer uses 4 times as much energy as a washing machine.
Using it 5 times a week will cost ~ £100 a year just for this appliance
alone and emit over half a tonne of CO2.
• 10 gms of carbon dioxide has an equivalent volume
of 1 party balloon.
• A Mobile Phone charger: > 10 kWh per year
~ 500 balloons each year.
• Standby on electrical appliances
up to 20 - 150+ kWh a year - 7500 balloons. (up to £15 a year)
• A Toyota Corolla (1400cc): 1 party balloon every 60m.
•
Filling up with petrol (~£55 for a full tank – 40 litres)
At Gao’an No 1 Primary School in Xuhui District, Shanghai
--------- 90 kg of CO2
(5% of one hot air balloon)
上海徐汇区高第一小学
How far does one have to drive in a small family car (e.g. 1400 cc
Toyota Corolla) to emit as much carbon dioxide as heating an old
persons room for 1 hour?
34
School children at the Al Fatah University,
1.6
miles
Tripoli,
Libya
Conclusions
• Hard Choices face the UK in the next 5 years
• Contrary to popular belief, support for renewables has been
responsible for less than 10% of rise in bills in last 8 years.
• Increases in fossil fuel prices has been much more significant
factor and will continue to do so.
• Headlines following publication of Energy Bill last week suggest
bills will include £100 in support of nuclear and renewables,
– But fossil fuel prices are likely to rise substantially
– |Doing nothing will mean that bills will be more by 2020 than
they otherwise would be.
• Lack of forward planning in the past, Energy Security is now a
critical issue - only Wind (Onshore and Offshore) and potentially
INSECURE gas can plug the gap post 2015.
"If you do not change direction, you may end up where
you are heading."
Lao Tzu (604-531 BC) Chinese Artist and Taoist philosopher
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