Transcript "Methodological constrains and need in the area of V&A assessment

METHODOLOGICAL CONSTRAINS AND
NEED IN THE AREA OF V&A
ASSESSMENT IN THE CENTRAL
AMERICAN REGION
UNFCCC WORKSHOP ON
METHODOLOGIES ON CLIMATE
CHANGE IMPACTS AND ADAPTATION
/ UNDP-GEF WORKSHOP FOR
DEVELOPING AN ADAPTATION
POLICY FRAMEWORK
MONTREAL. CANADA
JUNE 11-14, 2001
Emilio Sempris
CATHALAC
NPCC-ANAM
Rep. of Panama
esempris@ cathalac.org
THE CENTRAL AMERICAN
REGION
CLIMATE VARIABILITY AND CHANGE
ADVERSE IMPACTS
CLIMATE RELATED IMPACTS IN LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN
DATE
COUNTRY
EVENT
DEATH
ESTIMATED
COSTS
(US$ million, 1998)
1974
Honduras
Hurricane Fifi
7,000
1,331
1982/3 Bolivia, Ecuador, Peru
El Niño
0
5,661
1997/98 Bolivia, Colombia,
El Niño
600
7,694
Ecuador, Peru
1998
Central America
Hurricane Mitch
9,214
6,008
1998
Dominican Republic
Hurricane Georges
235
2,193
Cuba
Hurricane Georges
6
N/A
1999
Venezuela
Landslide
25,000
N/A
Fuente: ECLAC, América Latina y El Caribe: El Impacto de los Desastres Naturales en el
Desarrollo, 1972-1999, LC/MEX/L.402; OFDA, Venezuela- Floods, Fact Sheet #10, 1/12/
2000.
INSTITUTIONAL ARRAGEMENT
WITHIN THE FRAMEWORK OF THE
UNFCCC
Panama Costa Rica El Salvador Nicaragua Honduras
NCCC
Met. Office
CCU
CCO
CCO
FINDINGS OF FIRST GENERATION
V&A ASSESSMENTS ? (1)
• The Region, as a whole, is not adapted to current
climate.
• Diferentiated vulnerarability to CC adverse impacts at
the national and regional level, and within the region,
there are populations with greatest risk to be
impacted, those coincide with the areas where there
is greatest geo-ecosystem, socioeconomic
deterioration.
• Obsolete Met. and Stats Offices
FINDINGS OF FIRST GENERATION
V&A ASSESSMENTS ? (2)
• There exists problems to idenfy vulnerable regions and population
at risk.
• There are great uncertainties attached to the results of the
assessment due to the avaliability and quality of climate system
data.
• There is a research need in terms of V&A integrated assessment.
• Political willingness & stability issues that makes the region even
more vulnerable to the adverse effects of climate change.
WHAT IS NEEDED ? (1)
• Standardization of climate change science ( e.i., Methodologies
and benkmarks to select vulnerable region and populations at
risk).
• Improvement of climate system data (not only T & P).
• Shorter term integrated impact assessments and adaptation
options should be developed.
• Improvement in risk communication capacity.
• Establishment formal models for assessing uncertainties.
KEY ISSUES FOR THE NEXT GENERATION
OF V&A ASSESSMENTS (1)
• proactive vs reactive adaptation responses
The second generation methodologies should
not look so hard into the future, so they do
not fall too behind in the present
• Stakeholders participation
• V&A integrated assessment
• Costing impacts
• Insurance
• Funding
REGIONAL IMPACTS ON QUANTITY
AND QUALITY OF WATER RESOURCES
ANTROPHOGENIC CAUSES ?
ANTHROPIC CAUSES
WATER WITHOUT SANITARY THREATMENT
Water without sanitation treatment
VECTORS BREEDING
Vector
breading sites
SITES
(1) (5)
Artificial impoundments, ponds,
Artificial
reservoirs
impoundment
Organic
contaminant
(2) (5)
ORGANIC
CONTAMINANTS
H2O
WATER
RESOURCES
Storms & Hurricanes
STORMS
FLOODS
FLOODS
(3)
(3)
Direct harmful
Direct harmful effects
effects
NATURAL CAUSES
CLIMATE RELATED
CAUSES ?
NON ORGANIC
Non-organic
CONTAMINANTS
contaminants
(2) (5)
Waste waters, excreta in rivers, streams, ground
Waste
waters,
waters, impoundments, Panama Bay.
pollution in rivers,
etc.
DROUGHTS
Droughts
(3) (4)
Indirect effects by
Indirect
effects
absence
REGIONAL STAKEHOLDERS FOR WATER
RESOURCES SECTOR IN THE REGION
WATER RESOURCES
IMWR
IRRIGATION
NAVIGATION
TOURISM
HYDROPOWER
AQUACULTURE
RECREATION
SUPPLY AND SANITATION
KEY ISSUES FOR THE NEXT GENERATION
OF V&A ASSESSMENTS (2)
• Costing impacts
• Insurance
• Funding
METHODOLOGICAL CONSTRAINS AND NEEDS
IN THE AREA OF V&A ASSESSMENT IN THE
CENTRAL AMERICAN REGION
UNFCCC WORKSHOP ON
METHODOLOGIES ON CLIMATE
CHANGE IMPACTS AND ADAPTATION
/ UNDP-GEF WORKSHOP FOR
DEVELOPING AN ADAPTATION
POLICY FRAMEWORK
MONTREAL. CANADA
JUNE 11-14, 2001
Emilio Sempris
CATHALAC
NPCC-ANAM
Rep. of Panama
esempris@ cathalac.org