Transcript Climate: Informing Adaptation

Climate: Informing Adaptation
(Watershed and streams of thought)
Roger S. Pulwarty
NOAA
Changing environments……..
Climate variability, land-surface, and streamflow
Physical and biological transformations: Storage, diversions and landscape
changes
Changing Goals……….
Prior to 1930s, single-purpose economic benefits (e.g., either transportation or
irrigation)
Post-1930s:multiple-purpose criteria including flood control, hydropower, fishing,
and recreation.
20th-Century: Two dramatic physical impacts
•
•
Water quality decline from return flows of agricultural and municipal waste
water
Large-scale diversions of water from one watershed to another
Climate change will interact with many
social and environmental stresses
Geographic Vulnerability of U.S. Residents to
Selected Climate-Related Health Impacts
Social trends can
increase our vulnerability
to climate change
• Concentration of
development along
vulnerable coasts
• Aging of U.S. population
• Increasing urbanization
• Population growth in
South and West
“The past century is no longer a fixed guide to
water management” (Everyone!)
• Historical Data Used to Manage Water Resources in 20th Century
• However…
• Climate Change is already altering water cycle
• More changes are expected
• Paleoclimate studies tell us the past has been very different
• Many Institutional Barriers to Change
• Laws, Decrees, Compacts difficult to modify
• Flood Control rule curves might require EIS to modify
• Transferring ag water can be
difficult
Long-Term Aridity Changes in the West
• Changing Water Demands
• More Research Needed
• All these stresses mean water
management will be doubling
challenging
Extremes – Climate Linkage
Global change
Climate
Change
Change in weather
event amplitude
and frequency
Climate Trends
Change in climate
event amplitude
and frequency
Climate
Variability
Weather
Extreme Events
Tropical Storms
Droughts/Floods
Tropics - El Niño, La Niña
Blocking
Extratropics - Jet Patterns
Teleconnections
5
Framework for relating global climate
change to local system…
Minimizing uncertainty:
Where is the uncertainty?
-Problem Domain
-science
-organizational
-community
- adequate theory
-multiple hypotheses
& congruent management
actions.
-tractability (complexity)
-confronting models w/data
-independence/ rigor
-novelty
-political
Gunderson and others
Managing Uncertainty:
Where is it?
-Problem Domain
-science
-organizational
-community
-cognitive
-political
- expressions of power
- multiple equilibria
paths not taken
- NONE are scale invariant
- stability of institutions
novelty of approaches
-role of epistemic groups
-perception of risk
-multiple discourses
-juggling domains
" DEAR
APPLICANT"
"TO S AVE TIME, WE ARE
ENCLO S ING TWO
DECLINE LETTERS ..."
" THANK YO U FO R
S UBMITTING YO UR PRO POS AL"
"...O NE FO R THIS PRO POS AL
AND ONE FOR THE NEXT
PRO PO S AL YO U S END US "
Dear
Applicant
" DEAR
APPLICANT"
"TO S AVE TIME, WE ARE
To save time,
we have enclosed
ENCLO S ING TWO
DECLINE LETTERS
..."
two declining
letters
Thank you for
submitting your proposal
" THANK YO U FO R
S UBMITTING YO UR PRO POS AL"
One for this proposal,
"...O NE FO R THIS PRO POS AL
andONE
one
AND
FORfor
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NEXTnext proposal
PRO PO S AL YO U S END US "
you send us
Overview
• Adaptation to what?
• Types of adaptation strategies:Existing and proposed
• Assessing impacts of complex events
• Coping vs adaptation
• Applications vs. adaptation
• Informing adaptation
What would “adaptation” address?
The threat already posed to society from today’s
climate variations
Climate-sensitive development paths that might
put greater population, ecosystem services, and
economies at risk
The potentially high-impact but still critically
uncertain additional risks presented by climate
change
How do we adapt?
• Infrastructure/assets
• Technological process optimization
• Institutional and behavioral changes or
reinforcement
• Crisis, learning and redesign
Adaptation actions
Addressing Oil Infrastructure Vulnerabilities
Upgrade and elevate low-lying roads used to transport
machinery, supplies, and workers to and from offshore
oil ports
Build higher bridges to accommodate for
sea-level rise
Design equipment to withstand increased
wave forces and higher storm surge
Current Plans
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Boston, MA
California
Chicago, IL
Colorado
Homer, AK
Keene, NH
King County, WA
Los Angeles, CA
Maryland
Miami-Dade County, FL
New York City, NY
Seattle, WA
Utah
Adaptation Planning Guidebooks
Adaptation: Options and Practices
in water resources
• Supply Side
Technological
– Groundwater storage
– Increase Storage
Capacity
– Desal of Sea Water
– Rain-water storage
– Removal of
phreatophytes
– Water Transfers
– Many have adverse
environmental (and
social) consequences
• Demand Side
Institutional/Behavioral
– Recycle Water
– Reduce Irrigation Demand
– Virtual Water
– Water Markets
– Economic Incentives
including metering, pricing
– For many effectiveness
uncertain
If it is so easy why is it so hard?
Multiple competing values
Multiple, competing objectives
Hydropower
Ecosystems
health
Recreation
Consumptive
use
Flood
control
Agriculture
Complex environmental problems usually
involve the greatest/most:
•Assumptions
•Estimates
•Inputs from the most people
•Stakes
•Greatest numbers of uncertainty categories
•Opportunity for resorting to “efficiency”
anchoring and reduction of complexity for
action
Pulwarty and Redmond 1997
If so……..
………so what ?
Why is “communication” not enough?
Broad societal processes that create dynamic
pressures and unsafe conditions are not easy
to change, yet are fundamental to human
Vulnerability
• The “push” supply of new information by would-be providers of
information/technology , and the “pull” demand for new information from
would-be learners
• More difficult is understanding the socialization of lessons
learned by particular individuals and organizations through
their own, direct trial and error experiences
Native American Lands in the
Four-Corners Region
(Nature, 2009)
Nested Scenarios
NPS, NIDIS and others
Colorado River Interim Guidelines Time to think-A Robust Solution?
• Operations specified through the full range of operation for Lake
Powell and Lake Mead
• Encourage efficient and flexible water use and management in the
Lower Basin through the Intentionally Created Surplus (ICS)
mechanism
• Strategy for shortages in the Lower Basin2, including a provision for
additional shortages if warranted
• In place for an interim period (through 2026) to gain valuable
operational experience
• Basin States agree to consult before resorting to litigation
1. Issued in Record of Decision, dated December 13, 2007; available at
http://www.usbr.gov/lc/region/programs/strategies.html
2. Mexico water deliveries are not directly effected by these guidelines
(US/DoI Bureau of Reclamation)
There is strong evidence that not all climate
Risks are being incorporated in decision making,
Even with regard to weather extremes
History is filled with examples of groups and
researchers that have proposed models of societal
progress that turn out in practice to benefit only a
fraction of the population
California’s Water Use
(million-acre feet)
1995
Average Drought
2020
Average Drought
Water Use
Urban
Agricultural
Environmental
TOTAL
8.8
33.8
36.9
79.5
9.0
34.5
21.2
64.7
12.0
31.5
37.0
80.5
12.4
32.3
21.3
66.0
65.1
12.5
0.3
77.9
43.5
15.8
0.3
59.6
65.0
12.7
0.4
78.1
43.4
16.0
0.4
59.8
1.6
5.1
2.4
6.2
Supplies
Surface Water
Groundwater
Recycled & Desalted
TOTAL
Shortage
Where do science and policy speak
to each other?
– Workshops and meetings (shared scenario
construction; shared model building?)
– Presentations and briefings (incl. locally organized
events, e.g. hearings)
– One-on-one technical assistance
– Coordination with other ongoing projects
– Work with the local media
– Web site development and maintenance
– Graduate-level courses on climate impacts &
adaptation
?
From climate impacts
assessment to water
resources practice—
Okanagan, Canada
1990s
2006
Climate information flow: traditional/technical
framing
Climate Information
•Forecasts
•Trends
•Scenarios
Stakeholder Interest
•Regional development
•Jobs
•Liability
•Quality of life
Climate information flow: applications framing
Filter / medium
Climate
information
Practitioner interest
translation
delivery
•Forecasts
•Trends
•Scenarios
Technical
frame
Non-Climate
Information
•Current status
•Trends
•Scenarios
•Hydrograph
•Crop model
•Health risk
•Water demand model
•Decision support
tool
Application
frame
•Risk assessment
•Design standards
•Operating rules
•Allocations
Basic/systemic and applied,vs.
adaptation research
Basic/Technical
Frame
Quality
Consistency
Economic potential
Dissemination
Efficiency
Expert
Direct outcome
Applications
frame
Procedural/
Adaptive frame
Relevance
Compatibility
Usefulness
Communication
Efficiency
Consultative
Direct outcome
Access
Legitimacy
Usability
Capacity
Equity
Co-production
Multiple outcomes
Climate
information
•Hydrograph
•Crop model
Application
frame
•Forecasts
•Trends
•Scenarios
Filter / medium
•Health risk model
•Water demand model
•Decision support
tool
Non-Climate
Information
•Current status
•Trends
•Scenarios
Practitioner interest
capacity
legitimacy
•Regional development
•Jobs
•Liability
•Quality of life
equity
•Risk assessment
•Design standards
•Operating rules
•Allocations
Stakeholder
Interest
Focus on the critical problems: not just
asking but answering the right question
• Acknowledge
uncertainties in
science, but manage
the risks
• Focus on
improving decisions
“ALSO, THE BRIDGE IS OUT AHEAD”
The combination of limate variability and change will likely
force decisions reexamining
existing statutory and other laws relating to resource
interests especially water and energy
(but rates of change may be faster than this process)
Near-term challenges to the environment,
trust responsibilities, and “Implied right” to
protection of the habitat from
environmental/land use degradation
Managing in a changing climate:
Adaptation needs
(1) Understand adaptation as being driven by
crises, learning and redesign- Role of
“surprises” in shaping responses
•
Human action in response to projections is reflexive
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Key drivers, such as technological innovation and change, are
unpredictable with great accuracy on scales that matter for regional
and local decisions-both pressures and solutions
•
The system may change faster than the models can be recalibrated,
particularly during turbulent periods of transition-Projections may
be most unreliable in precisely the situations where they are most
desired
Inactions, actions and consequences
•
Adaptation needs(2) Early warning systems for critical thresholds
across climate time and space scales: Extremes in
the context of change
(3) Derive risk profiles and a portfolio of measures
for each location/unit of analysis, identifying the
broader economic, social and environmental
benefits of each measure along with its cost
Methodological developments:
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Cost-effectiveness-costs of action and of inaction
Technological Efficiency:Drivers of adoption
Renewables:Viability and offsets
Evaluation: Infrastructure vs emergent events
(4) Science for adaptationSustain a collaborative framework between research and
management Engage both leadership and the public
Scenario planning to address problem-definition and characterize
multiple uncertainties-technical as well as institutional capacity
Prioritize and select climate adaptation and resilience
measures and revise periodically
(extremes, variability and change) and development
•Assumptions-e.g. climate knowledge, forecasts of socio-economic
trends and drivers of growth
•Effectiveness- Short-term adjustments/coping that constrain or
enable longer-term risks
•Benefits-adaptation in support of development goals
•Limits-to adaptation e.g. ocean acidification
Knowledge “of”
a process
not equal among
Impediments
to the
flow of is
knowledge
to knowledge
“in” a process
existing
components
Policies and practices that can give rise to
failures of the component parts working as a
system
Opportunities for and constraints to learning
and institutional innovation
Mapping decision making processes and
climate information entry points
Expectation
Better integrated understanding of the multiple
functions of climate, socio-economic systems
will lead to greater focus on balanced
conservation as a subject of policy and to more
coherent support among policy makers and
stakeholders
A Complex Portfolio of Drivers
30
DAYS
1-4
SEASONS
>1
YEAR
10
YEARS
SHORT-TERMSeasonal
Human Well-being and
Poverty Reduction
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

Basic material for a good life
Health
Good Social Relations
Human
Security
Freedom of choiceWell-being
and action
30
100
YEARS YEARS
DECADE-TOCENTURY
Indirect Drivers of Change
 Demographic
 Economic (globalization, trade,
market and policy framework)
 Sociopolitical (governance and
Indirect framework)
institutional
 Science
and Technology
Drivers
 Cultural and Religious
Direct Drivers of Change
Ecosystem
Services
Melillo and others
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Changes in land use
Species
introduction or removal
Direct
Technology adaptation and use
Drivers
External
inputs (e.g., irrigation)
Resource consumption
Climate change
Natural physical and biological
drivers (e.g., volcanoes)
Decision Support Planning Methods:
Incorporating Climate Change Uncertainties
into Water Planning
1. Classic decision analysis,
2. Traditional scenario planning,
3. Robust decision making,
4. Real options, and
5. Portfolio planning.
… LC/UC 2007 approach has since been extended to blend paleo-spell
and projected climate/hydrology (Reclamation 2009)
Info: Levi Brekke ([email protected]
Jim Prarie ([email protected]
Resources
Access
Capacity
income
Use
Environment
Internal freshwater flows
External flows
population
% pop with access to potable water
% with access to sanitation
% pop with access to water for irrigation
purchasing power parity per capita
Gini coefficient
Water carrying times
domestic water use l/day
Share of water use by industry and
agriculture adjusted by GDP sector
share
Indices of water quality
Water stress pollution
Environmental regulation and management
Informational capacity
Biodiversity based on threatened species
Use of natural resources
Resource
x
100
50
Access
x
x
Environment
x
x
Use
Capacity
Water Vulnerability Index
A weak track record for the implementation of
adaptive management:
Successful
Modeling failure
Implementation failure
Paradoxes?
• Decentralization….. better coordination/integrated
data. Nation vs. States vs. community priorities:
Jurisdictional externalities
• Cumulative reduction of smaller scale risks…… may
increase vulnerability to large events
• Planning…….“action” only after crisis or focusing
event. Lessons available on particular events but not
to gradual changes (or abrupt regime shifts)
• Integrated River Basin management….National
vs. States vs. borderlands priorities
• Develop procedural/participatory mechanisms:
Coalitions of local stakeholders need to be
inclusive and transparent………. but this can lead
to power struggles/robustness under stress
• Keep the water flowing for my needs…and, oh
yeah ……protect that environment thing
• Tradeoffs between “decision quality” and
“acceptability”
• Markets allow flexibility for adjustment to risks
in hydrological uncertainty---Meeting other
public values through markets, especially
environmental requirements, remain difficult
• Risk models are needed but fail just when they
might be most heavily relied on: during periods
of rapid transition/response curve steepens
What leads to “successful”
agreements
•Strong focusing events-windows
•Public and leadership engaged
•Social basis for cooperation exists–meaningful partnerships
–Interjurisdictional
•Collaborative framework between
research and management-exists and
supported
Big Challenges –plans for water sharing under
much greater uncertainty
• Understanding environmental consumptive use trade-offs and
environmental management “triage - best bets” given
thresholds and irreversibility – and inflow scenarios
• With increasing scarcity we reach thresholds beyond which
ecosystem service provision capacities are irreversibly
damaged, or require expensive built capital substitutes:
• Floodplain health – amenity, recreational, fishery, existence values
• Water of sufficient quality for urban use – salinity, blue green algae, acid
sulfate
• Irrigation – orchards, vineyards, dairy herds;
• Triage which things to keep ticking over, which things to let go:
this year and in following years with uncertainty
• Building resilience into new Basin plans – planning a wide range
of contingencies in – how to share water manage threats,
triggers for actions
What is needed?
 That is, we need more scholars who can:
 understand and expand the interface between policy and
science
 are a force pulling us towards fundamental use inspired
research
 move seamlessly across disciplines
 are methodological innovators without becoming technicians
 are institution builders
CCSP Unified Synthesis Product: Global Climate Change Impacts in the United States
53
Science: Credibility and Uncertainty
• Public views of science often adhere to the old Popperian model
(theory, hypothesis, critical test, better theory, …) that implies linear
progress and continual progress toward truth and exactitude
• When policy advocates discover that they can thrive on scientific
ambiguity, they can highlight and exaggerate the significance of
scientific disagreement, downplaying the degree of scientific
agreement
• Policymakers and the public often have deterministic understandings
of the physical/natural world that lead to exaggerated expectations of
the possibilities for eliminating uncertainty.
Usual stakeholder interaction
–Concentrates on the incorporation of new
knowledge or experience into existing models,
decision processes and practices
Adaptive framing:
–The most important learning involves values,
norms, goals, and the basic “framing” of issues
in terms of the drivers and importance
–Innovative partnerships incl.joint research
Responding to developing events
• No single communication-diffusion model is best for all processes
• Idealized forecasts and decision environments form difficult
benchmarks to beat
• Simpler diffusion models tend to to forecast response better than
more complex ones
• Uncertainty can be used as a dodge to avoid what are really tough
policy decisions
• “Projections” have become mediating tools in
the dialog among actors, resistors, decisionmakers
i.e. not necessarily a “consensus builder” but
highlights potential tension and exposes
perceptions of risk and uncertainty
e.g. water leasing vs. permanent transfers
How much information is enough?
What are the most effective combinations of
format and contents?
Participatory approaches can help to build the
science-policy bridge
Role of local experts (practitioners, stakeholders) in
climate change impacts-adaptation research
Local context (planning, decision-making)
Data, operational perspectives
Professional networks
Local governments
“Experts” become extension agents for local
adaptation
Role of research community changes from initiator of studies to resource for
community-based assessments
Broadens base of investments in impacts-adaptation research
Potential for increased support for monitoring
But a bit of humility helps-neither group knows the
answer apriori
Thank You!
Problem-solving approaches: System uncertainty and decision stakes
(Adapted with permission from Functowicz and Ravetz)
>2 nd Order Contexts
Decision Stakes:
(Regional risk assessments
Decision-support)
Consultancy
(Specific
applications
&output)
Applied
Sciences
(Forecasts/Impacts)
Problem solving
approach
System Uncertainty
Physical systems and linkages
Economics and Social Dimensions
Backup slide
Problems:
• The “push” supply of new information by would-be providers
of information/technology , and the “pull” demand for new
information from would-be learners
• More difficult is understanding the socialization of lessons
learned by particular individuals and organizations through
their own, direct trial and error experiences
Commonalities and Differences: Scenarios
What are the
important
differences
across
scenarios?

Types of communication

Amount of lead time to educate and build
support

Degree of hands-on manipulation (eg.
greater improvement needs for the novel
ecosystem

Resources and monitoring available The
extent of partnerships

Availability and willingness of partners to
engage
What are the
common issues
to pay attention
to, across all
scenarios?
National Park Service
Scenarios Development

Need for monitoring – water, caves, are we
monitoring the right things?

Thinning forested areas/ prescribed fires

Thinning of the fields and carrying capacity

Triage / prioritization / tough choices

Impacts on paleo and cultural resources

Invasives

Staff training

Focus on conservation, sustainability, and
water management
Are the sources/providers of
information credible
to the decision maker?
Is the research compatible
with existing
decision models?
Is the research accessible to
policy/decision maker?
Analysis of usefulness for
policy/decision making
arena
Is the research relevant
for decisions?
Are policymakers
receptive to the
problem and to research?
Goals, Criticality, time frame, basis for
decisions,usability,entry points, experience