Transcript Preliminary Review of the Economic Impact of Climate Change on

Preliminary Review of the economic impact of climate change
on Caribbean Tourism: what is at risk and adapting for
sustainable tourism development
Marlene Attzs
Senior Technical Officer and PhD Candidate
Sustainable Economic Development Unit (SEDU)
Department of Economics, University of the West Indies
St. Augustine Trinidad
OAS Meeting on Adaptation to Climate Change in the
Caribbean Tourism Sector Workshop, Grenada, May 27-28, 2002.
Content of Presentation
1. Science of Climate Change
2. Anticipated impacts of climate change on SIDS
3. Vulnerability and Adaptation
4. Definitional Review of Sustainable Tourism Development
5. Application to the Caribbean
o 6. Need for economic policy instruments to address risk and to
promote adaptation to CC particularly for the tourism sector
Science of Climate Change
Climate Change may be summarised as a situation where the
atmosphere’s carrying capacity for assimilating/absorbing
GHGs has been breached/surpassed.
The 1995 IPCC report concluded that there has been
“a discernible human influence on global climate…”.
The primary sources of these anthropogenic or human-induced
factors have been increased burning of fossil fuels and the
use of aerosols.
Sustainable Tourism Development
Challenges to the Sustainable Development of the Caribbean
Tourism Industry
1. to maintain the industry within the region’s ecological and
socio-cultural carrying capacity.
2. to anticipate and adapt to climate change inclusive of
an increased frequency and intensity of natural disasters,
mean sea level rise and increased temperature.
Anticipated Impacts of Climate Change on SIDS
Surface Temperatures : sea-surface temperature to increase
by about 1C over the next 100 years
Rainfall : to increase by 20-30% over tropical oceans
Extreme Events (including hurricanes and cyclones) to increase
by about 40% . Latest projections by Gray (2002) suggest that
the 2002 hurricane season will be “active” and “above average”
with 12 named storms; 7 hurricanes and 3 major hurricanes.
(the average per year is 9.6 named storms, 5.9 hurricanes and
2.3 major hurricanes).
Anticipated Impacts of Climate Change on SIDS
Sea Level Rise: could increase by an average of 5mm per annum
resulting in, inter alia, direct loss of economic, ecological,
cultural and subsistence values through loss of land, infrastructure
and coastal habitats; Increased flood risk of people, land and
infrastructure; and Other impacts related to changes in water
management, salinity and biological activity.
Vulnerability and Adaptation
Vulnerability to Climate Change is the amount of damage a
region/sector could experience in light of climate change.
The literature suggests that the extent to which human communities
are able to adapt to CC would depend on (a) the number and nature
of changes which result from CC (b) the rate at which (frequency)
of these changes occur and (c) the cost of these changes.
Tol, Fankhauser and Smith (1998) report that an ecosystem’s
vulnerability to CC is a function of (a) the sensitivity of the system to
CC and (b) the ability of the system to adapt to CC.
The vulnerability of SIDS relates to their very geographical
location. In the case of Caribbean SIDS, these are located in the
"hurricane belt"
The frequency and intensity of hurricanes, have increased
in recent years.
The small populations and generally mono-crop economies of
most Caribbean States means that whenever a disaster strikes
it affects a large proportion of the economy and people, and
development of the countries could be set back by several years.
Hurricane Luis, Antigua and Barbuda in 1995 - damage estimated
in excess of EC$810 Mn (approx US$ 270Mn ) million in damages
and resulted in the closing of all hotels. This amounted to 71 per
cent of the island's GDP with an estimated 83 % of GDPfrom
tourism.
Anguilla also suffered damages, which were estimated to be
147 per cent of its GDP.
What is at risk in the Caribbean
The wider Caribbean region with its many island
based economies such as fishing and/or tourism, is particularly
vulnerable to the physical changes associated with climate change
and sea level rise… (UNEP 1993, 10)
Jackson (1984) noted that the majority of tourist facilities
in the Caribbean are in close proximity to the sea – within
800 metres of the high water mark.
What is at risk in the Caribbean
Tourism Assets:
Antigua & Barbuda: Hurricanes Luis and Marilyn (1995)
devastated coastal areas, causing severe damage to hotel and
other tourism properties and leading to significant reductions
in tourism arrivals and adversely affecting employment and
foreign exchange. Similar experiences in 1998 and 1999 with
the passage of Hurricanes Jose, Georges and Lenny.
What is at risk in the Caribbean
Barbados: 70% of the island’s hotels located within 250 metres
of the high water mark which suggests a lot of hotels almost
exclusively within the 1 in 500 and 1 in 100 inundation zones,
placing them at risk of major structural damage
Dominica: Hurricane Lenny (1999) caused approximately
US$250,000.00 damages to tourism infrastructure mainly
along the west coast.
What is at risk in the Caribbean
St Lucia: Hurricane Lenny (1999) had significant impacts,
primarily in the coastal environment, even though the storm
remained hundreds of miles away from St Lucia
St. Vincent and the Grenadines: no direct impact from triple
storm systems of 1995 (Iris, Luis, and Marilyn) but coastal
areas received considerable damage from storm surge
associated with these systems.
What is at risk in the Caribbean
Other assets
Private Property
Public Infrastructure
(roads, bridges, hospitals, public utilities etc.)
Adaptation to Climate Change impacts
O1. Anticipatory vs Reactionary Adaptation
O2. Do Nothing, Managed Retreat, Aggressive Defence
Adaptation to hurricanes,
perhaps the most effective adaptation strategies would be either
retrofitting of homes/businesses against hurricane force winds
as a precautionary measure or ensuring that in the design, planning
and construction phases there is strict adherence to building codes
which have been designed to “protect” structures against the
impacts of hurricanes including, high speed winds, flash-flooding etc.
Economic Policy Instruments to facilitate Adaptation
1. Tax-based incentives (eg. Soft loans)
2. Public Education
3. Command and Control (legislation and policies)
5. National/Regional adaptation strategies (investing in hard/soft
engineering, research into the climate change to better
understand the national/regional implications of climate change)