Transcript Risk and Resilience:A Canadian Perspective on Climate

SBSTA 20
Adaptation Workshop
18 June 2004
Bonn
Risk and Resilience:
A Canadian Perspective
on Climate Change
Adaptation
Donald S. Lemmen, PhD
Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation Directorate
Natural Resources Canada
Outline
1 – why perceptions matter
2 – risk and perceptions of risk in Canada
3 – building awareness and engagement to
better manage risk
4 – areas for enhanced information exchange
Messages
• perceptions of risk and of capacity to adapt vary
• vulnerability to current climate at the local and
regional level is often key to raising awareness
of risk
• need to consider action in context of on-going
decision-making processes
Why Understanding Perception of
Risk is Important
Risk perception influences:
• mitigative and adaptive responses to climate
change
• the timing and magnitude of response
• the level of priority given to actions
Risk perception includes:
• probability and severity of the stress
• uncertainty
• ability to respond to the stress
The North
Current and Future
Risks of
Climate Change
In Canada
The Prairies
British
Columbia
Atlantic Canada
Ontario and Quebec
Canada
Differing Perceptions of Risk
due to Climate Change
Areas where assessed risk, and perception of risk,
are well aligned:
• where unprecedented climate impacts are
observed
 northern ecosystems, glacier-fed waters
• where current costs of extreme climate events
are high
 flooding, drought, storm surges
• where potentially direct impacts on human
health and well-being
 traditional food supplies, heat stress
Differing Perceptions of Risk
due to Climate Change
Areas where assessed risk, and perception of risk,
are poorly aligned
• where small, incremental changes
approach critical thresholds
 transportation, water resources
• where programs / policies insulate
individuals from real affects
 are such programs sustainable
• where limitations in ability to adapt are not
well understood
 coping range not defined
Keys to Managing Risk
1. Engage decision makers
2. Understanding climatic sensitivities and
critical thresholds
3. Characterizing adaptive capacity
4. Assessing vulnerability
5. Integrating risks due to climate change
into on-going decision making processes
Engaging Decision-makers
Why?
• to raise awareness of risks of climate change
• to identify priorities for adaptation action
Who?
• governments – multiple levels (local to national) and
multiple departments
• industry and professional associations
• planners
How?
• speak in terms of their decision-making processes
• focus on vulnerability to current climate
• analyze resilience to address plausible futures, including
consideration of rates of change
• address as part of on-going risk management – one of
several stresses to consider
Canada’s National
Adaptation Framework
Federal, Provincial and Territorial government
initiative to:
•
help jurisdictions develop individual adaptation
strategies
•
identify areas where jurisdictions can work together
Framework defines three broad needs
1. To build knowledge and understanding
2. To increase awareness and engagement
3. To build capacity to undertake action
Government of Canada’s Climate Change
Impacts and Adaptation Program
Program Elements:
1 – funding research and undertaking science assessment
 increasing focus on adaptation research
 targeting priority areas for decision-making
2 – Canadian Climate Impacts and Adaptation Research
Network
 bringing together research and stakeholder
communities
 facilitates regional and sectoral vulnerability analysis
3 – coordination of policy analysis and development
 analysis of climate change implications for existing
policies and programs
 recognition that adaptation actions taken within one
region or sector will have significant implications for
others
Some areas for continued information
exchange between all Parties
1. Vulnerability and Adaptive Capacity
• local and regional scale vulnerability assessment
• assessing influences on adaptive capacity, including
perceptions of risk
• assessing resilience to plausible futures
2. Adaptation Policies and Measures
• approaches to enhance awareness and engage
decision-makers
• frameworks and planning tools to integrate risks due
to climate change into on-going decision making
processes
• understanding barriers (including risk perception)
and incentives to implementation
• targeted policies and measures