Transcript Global Warming Policy PowerPoint - Alan Robock

Policy Responses to
Global Warming
Alan Robock
Department of Environmental Sciences
Rutgers University, New Brunswick, New Jersey USA
[email protected]
http://envsci.rutgers.edu/~robock
But, what is a “greenhouse gas” anyway?
Nitrogen (N2), oxygen (O2), and
argon (Ar) make up for 99% of
the atmosphere, but are not
greenhouse gases.
Water vapor (H2O), carbon
dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4),
ozone (O3), and nitrous oxide
(N2O) are greenhouse gases.
A greenhouse gas absorbs
infrared radiation, which
creates molecular vibration
and bending.
Water vapor (H2O) vibration modes
http://www.lsbu.ac.uk/water/vibrat.html
Collisions transfer energy to heat
the surrounding gas.
Alan Robock
Department of Environmental Sciences
Global Warming Fundamental Questions
1. How will climate change in the future?
Considerable warming, glacier retreat, more
precipitation and extremes, extinctions,
stronger hurricanes, and sea level rise
2. How will climate change affect us?
Some winners but more losers, including
water, tropical agriculture, national security
3. What should we do about it?
Mitigation now (reduce emissions, efficiency)
is cheaper than waiting, study impacts, adapt
Alan Robock
Department of Environmental Sciences
Global Warming Fundamental Questions
1. How will climate change in the future?
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
(IPCC) Working Group I (WG I)
2. How will climate change affect us?
IPCC WG II
3. What should we do about it?
IPCC WG III
Alan Robock
Department of Environmental Sciences
Climate Change Fundamental Questions
3. What should we do about it?
This is a political decision to be made by society and
individuals, and is based on values.
Cannot be answered directly by science, but mitigation
and adaptation need to be informed by scientific
results, for example:
- the response to different mitigation choices
- scenarios for implementation of mitigation and
adaptation, such as wind climate for wind generators,
or future climate for agriculture
- assess carbon offset schemes
Alan Robock
Department of Environmental Sciences
The United Nations
Framework Convention On Climate Change
1992
Signed by 194 countries and ratified by 188
(as of February 26, 2004)
Signed and ratified in 1992 by the United States
The ultimate objective of this Convention ... is to
achieve ... stabilization of greenhouse gas
concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that
would prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference
with the climate system.
Alan Robock
Department of Environmental Sciences
Kyoto Protocol
Adopted at the third session of the Conference of the
Parties to the UNFCCC in Kyoto, Japan, on 11 December
1997.
It has been signed, but not ratified, by the US.
Agrees to limit US greenhouse gas emissions to 93% of the
level of 1990 by 2008-2012.
To come into force, the Kyoto Protocol had to be ratified
by at least 55 countries, including Annex I countries
accounting for at least 55% of this industrialized group’s
emissions in 1990.
The Kyoto Protocol entered into force on February 16,
2005, after Russia ratified it. As of 16 September 2005,
156 states and regional economic integration organizations
have deposited instruments of ratifications, accessions,
approvals or acceptances. The total percentage of Annex I
Parties emissions is 61.6%.
Alan Robock
Department of Environmental Sciences
Science
24 March 2006
Alan Robock
Department of Environmental Sciences
From Jim Hansen, 11/21/06
Alan Robock
Department of Environmental Sciences
How do you define “Dangerous Change?”
Extermination of Animal & Plant Species
1. Extinction of Polar and Alpine Species
2. Unsustainable Migration Rates
Ice Sheet Disintegration: Global Sea Level Rise
Regional Climate Change
1. More Strong Hurricanes
2. Droughts/Floods
3. Threats to Water and Food Supply
A Warming >1°C Risks a “Different Planet.”
Partly from Jim Hansen, 11/21/06
Alan Robock
Department of Environmental Sciences
To avoid warming >1°C:
- Maximum CO2 ~ 450 ppm
- Slightly larger if non-CO2 forcings (e.g., methane,
black carbon particles) decrease
Gas and Oil Use Most of 450 ppm Limit
- Gas and oil must be stretched via efficiency
- Coal and unconventional fossil fuels must be phased
out or capture CO2
- Future power plants must be zero-CO2
- Vehicles eventually must be zero-CO2
Partly from Jim Hansen, 11/21/06
Alan Robock
Department of Environmental Sciences
From IPCC Working Group III:
Stabilization of equivalent CO2 at a level of
445-535 ppm will cost less than 0.12% of GNP
annually through the year 2030.
Alan Robock
Department of Environmental Sciences
The answers are
Efficiency: hybrid autos, trucks, and trains, solid
state lighting, more efficient furnaces and
appliances
Conservation: better insulation, public
transportation, bicycles
Renewable Energy: solar, wind, geothermal,
biomass (e.g., ethanol, biodiesel, wood)
Carbon Sequestration: especially for fixed coalburning plants in the U.S., India, and China. And
with biofuels, it will reduce atmospheric CO2.
WE NEED ALL OF THE ABOVE
Alan Robock
Department of Environmental Sciences
IPCC Working Group III
Summary for Policymakers
May 4, 2007
Table from Nature, May 10, 2007, vol 447, p. 121.
Alan Robock
Department of Environmental Sciences
Whitesides, George M. and George W. Crabtree, 2007: Don't forget
long-term fundamental research in energy, Science, 796-798.
Alan Robock
Department of Environmental Sciences
Goldemberg, José, 2007: Ethanol for a sustainable
energy future, Science, 808-810.
Alan Robock
Department of Environmental Sciences
Goldemberg, José, 2007: Ethanol for a sustainable
energy future, Science, 808-810.
Alan Robock
Department of Environmental Sciences
Alan Robock
Department of Environmental Sciences
Alan Robock
Department of Environmental Sciences
Nuclear power is NOT the answer, for any one
of the following reasons:
1. Unsafe operation (poor NRC oversight, for profit
culture, planned and unplanned releases, fire
protection, evacuation plans)
2. Possibility of catastrophic accident
3. Possibility of terrorist attack and radioactive release
4. Not economically viable
5. Waste disposal problem not solvable in near future
6. Nuclear weapons proliferation (fuel processing plant
could produce 10-30 U weapons/yr, waste
reprocessing could produce 30 Pu weapons/yr)
Alan Robock
Department of Environmental Sciences
Alan Robock
Department of Environmental Sciences
Source: American Wind Energy Association, http://www.awea.org/pubs/factsheets/Subsidy.pdf
Alan Robock
Department of Environmental Sciences
April 19, 2003
Alan Robock
Department of Environmental Sciences
Mileage of Toyota vehicles introduced since 1999
The New York Times, April 19, 2003
Alan Robock
Department of Environmental Sciences
The New York Times, Oct. 8, 2006
Alan Robock
Department of Environmental Sciences
What the US government should do immediately
Al Gore Congressional testimony, March 21, 2007
1. Immediately freeze carbon dioxide emissions and then begin a
program to reduce them by at least 90% by 2050.
2. Replace the payroll tax for Social Security and Medicare with a
tax on pollution, particularly carbon dioxide.
3. Use a portion of the tax on pollution to help low-income individuals
adapt as carbon emissions are reduced.
4. Work towards de-facto compliance with the Kyoto Protocol to the
United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, and
create a new, strong international treaty with a starting date of
2010 instead of 2012.
5. Enact a moratorium on the construction of any new coal-fired
power plants that are not compatible with carbon capture and
sequestration.
Alan Robock
Department of Environmental Sciences
What the US government should do immediately
Al Gore Congressional testimony, March 21, 2007
6. Create an “Electranet,” a smart grid in which power generation is
widely distributed. Homeowners and small businesses could use
solar and wind energy generators and sell that energy into the
grid at a rate that is determined by the market.
7. Raise Corporate Average Fuel Economy (CAFE) standards for
automobiles, and set energy standards for other industries.
8. Set a date for a ban on incandescent light bulbs.
9. Create a “Connie Mae,” a carbon-neutral mortgage association that
would help homebuyers pay for energy reduction measures such
as insulation and energy-efficient windows that can have high
upfront expenses.
10. Have the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) require the
disclosure of carbon emissions in corporate reporting.
Alan Robock
Department of Environmental Sciences
What the you can do immediately
- Support legislation that will help solve the problem, both in New
Jersey and in Congress.
- Vote for legislators and a President who will help solve the problem.
- Install solar cells, with New Jersey helping to pay the bill.
- Use less energy:
Less driving (telecommute, bike, train, bus)
Smaller car/hybrid
Insulate your house
Cooler house in winter, warmer in summer
Buy local products
Compact fluorescent bulbs
Less meat (energy, methane)
Recycle
Biodiesel
Alan Robock
Department of Environmental Sciences
Alan Robock
Department of Environmental Sciences
Alan Robock
Department of Environmental Sciences
Alan Robock
Department of Environmental Sciences
$300
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$150
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$50
$0
1/02
Monthly Electric Bill
Mean (2003-2007) + Trend
1/03
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1/08
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1/10
Alan Robock
Department of Environmental Sciences
Alan Robock
Department of Environmental Sciences
What we can do together
Alan Robock
Department of Environmental Sciences
Benefits:
- saves money for Wall Township
- demonstrates for residents
how to save money and save
the planet
Cool cities near us:
Asbury Park
Belmar
Brick Township
Lake Como
Long Branch
Point Pleasant
Toms River
Alan Robock
Department of Environmental Sciences
For Wall to become a Cool City, all that needs to happen is
for Mayor Devlin to sign the U.S. Mayor’s Climate
Protection Agreement. Under the Agreement, participating
cities commit to take the following three actions:
1. Strive to meet or beat the Kyoto Protocol targets in their own
communities, through actions ranging from anti-sprawl land-use policies
to urban forest restoration projects to public information campaigns;
2. Urge their state governments, and the federal government, to enact
policies and programs to meet or beat the greenhouse gas emission
reduction target suggested for the United States in the Kyoto
Protocol -- 7% reduction from 1990 levels by 2012; and
3. Urge the U.S. Congress to pass the bipartisan greenhouse gas
reduction legislation, which would establish a national emission trading
system.
http://www.seattle.gov/mayor/climate/
Alan Robock
Department of Environmental Sciences
We will strive to meet or exceed Kyoto Protocol targets for reducing
global warming pollution by taking actions in our own operations
and communities such as:
1. Inventory global warming emissions in City operations and in the
community, set reduction targets and create an action plan.
2. Adopt and enforce land-use policies that reduce sprawl, preserve
open space, and create compact, walkable urban communities;
3. Promote transportation options such as bicycle trails, commute trip
reduction programs, incentives for car pooling and public transit;
4. Increase the use of clean, alternative energy by, for example,
investing in “green tags,” advocating for the development of
renewable energy resources, recovering landfill methane for
energy production, and supporting the use of waste to energy
technology;
5. Make energy efficiency a priority through building code
improvements, retrofitting city facilities with energy efficient
lighting and urging employees to conserve energy and save money;
Alan Robock
Department of Environmental Sciences
6. Purchase only Energy Star equipment and appliances for City use;
7. Practice and promote sustainable building practices using the U.S.
Green Building Council's LEED program or a similar system;
8. Increase the average fuel efficiency of municipal fleet vehicles;
reduce the number of vehicles; launch an employee education
program including anti-idling messages; convert diesel vehicles to
bio-diesel;
9. Evaluate opportunities to increase pump efficiency in water and
wastewater systems; recover wastewater treatment methane for
energy production;
10. Increase recycling rates in City operations and in the community;
11. Maintain healthy urban forests; promote tree planting to increase
shading and to absorb CO2; and
12. Help educate the public, schools, other jurisdictions, professional
associations, business and industry about reducing global warming
pollution.
Alan Robock
Department of Environmental Sciences
“No regrets” policies. Reduced usage of energy will
have many positive benefits to society, even if
projected global warming turns out to have been
exaggerated (which is just as likely as that the
warming turns out to have been underestimated).
We would have cleaner air, less acid rain,
greater visibility in the atmosphere, cooler central
regions of cities, more trees, and less dependence
on foreign oil supplies.
Alan Robock
Department of Environmental Sciences
Alan Robock
Department of Environmental Sciences
The Global Warming Dilemma (Mahlman, 2002)
“There are no quick policy fixes, nationally or
globally. If we don't begin to chip away at the problem
soon, it is very likely that serious consequences will be
wired in for the world of our great-grandchildren and for
their great-grandchildren. ...
“The long time scales and robustness of the problem
almost guarantees that our descendants in the 22nd
century will, with historical perspective, see that we were
actually confronted with a major planet-scale stewardship/
management problem.
“They will most assuredly note how we responded,
or how we did not respond to the problem.”
Alan Robock
Department of Environmental Sciences
Flawed arguments against global warming
Solar variations have caused the recent warming, so the
effect of greenhouse gases must be small.
The warming was caused by contrails (short-lived clouds,
formed by condensation of jet exhaust), so we need not
worry about greenhouse gases.
The satellite record of lower tropospheric temperature
for the past 20 years shows less warming, which shows
that both the surface temperature record is wrong and
that climate models are flawed.
Alan Robock
Department of Environmental Sciences
Flawed arguments against global warming
Models produce too much warming when they try to
reproduce the climate change of the past 100 years.
Most of the warming of the past century took place in
the first half of the century, especially from about
1915 to 1945, when the effect of CO2 was less.
Water vapor is a more important greenhouse gas than
carbon dioxide (CO2).
The warming of the surface air temperatures is urban
warming and not representative of global climate change.
Alan Robock
Department of Environmental Sciences
Flawed arguments against global warming
Carbon dioxide variations in the Ice Age are inconsistent
with current climate model predictions.
Most IPCC scientists are not experts in global climate
change.
Climate model predictions for global warming are getting
smaller as time goes on (implying that the problem will go
away once we study it some more).
Alan Robock
Department of Environmental Sciences
Flawed arguments against global warming
The human input of CO2 to the atmosphere each year is
only about 4% of the natural biological flux, so we need
not worry about it.
Scientists get the answer on greenhouse warming that
the government wants, to keep their funding coming in.
Weather cannot be predicted beyond a week or so, so
how can we predict climate?
The current warming is a natural “rebound from the
Little Ice Age” and should not be blamed on human
actions.
Alan Robock
Department of Environmental Sciences
“The words of
the prophets
are written on
the subway
walls”
Sounds of Silence
(Simon and Garfunkel,
1966)
Very Likely
Photograph by Warren Washington
Alan Robock
Department of Environmental Sciences