Transcript now - Fiona`s Red Kite

interpreting weather and climate for your needs
Fiona’s Red Kite
Climate Change
- the science, the policy and the ethics
A presentation by Fiona Hewer MSc FRMetS
for
Henley College
13 February 2008
Fiona’s Red Kite
Temperature evidence
•
current warming trend
“unequivocal” (~0.74ºC
/100yr)
•
global average sea-level rise
(~2mm/yr)
•
glaciers and snow cover are
declining; loss of Arctic sea ice
Fiona’s Red Kite
IPCC Synthesis Report
Warming of the climate system is unequivocal,
as is now evident from observations of increases
in global averaged air and ocean temperatures,
widespread melting of snow and ice, and rising
global average sea level.
Most of the observed increase in globallyaveraged temperatures since the mid-20th
century is very likely due to the observed
increase in anthropogenic GHG
concentrations.
Fiona’s Red Kite
Consequences of global
temperature rises
•
•
•
•
•
•
at 0-1ºC above 1980-1999s hundreds of millions of
people exposed to increased water stress
at 1ºC up to 30% species at increased extinction risk
at 2ºC there will be further increases in deaths from
drought, flood and heat wave
at 3ºC about 30% of global coastal wetland will be lost
at 4ºC significant extinctions around the globe
at 5ºC millions in coastal flooding
The highest projections for the 2090’s are 6.4ºC
Fiona’s Red Kite
What warms and cools the
climate of your town
• the Gulf stream
• land use - dark
coloured surface
absorb more of the
sun’s heat
• green house gases
• aerosols - particles
in the atmosphere
• land use - light
coloured surfaced
reflect the sun’s heat
• the natural cycle of
ice-ages
Fiona’s Red Kite
International agreements and
UK targets
Name
UK ‘97
UK Kyoto
EU15 Kyoto
reduce
in
rel. to
by
20% CO2
1990
2010
12.5% ghg
1990
2008-12
1990
(1995)
1990
2012
1990
2050
8.0% ghg
CC Bill
26-32% CO2
CC Bill
60% CO2
Bali footnote
25-40%
2020
2020
Fiona’s Red Kite
Climate change - the ethics
• Which solutions are moral? How can we ensure the
policies we implement are just?
• I’m not going try and tell you what you should think, but
I will discuss some tools and ideas to help you explore
your own views
• For whom do we want be just? Who is our moral
community?
• membership of the moral community gives us rights and
responsibilities
Fiona’s Red Kite
Climate change - the ethics
Technocentrism
versus
Ecocentrism
• nature provides resources
• humans are part of nature - if
for humans such as fuel,
we damage it we damage
building materials and food
ourselves
• our unique powers of
• nature is a complicated,
intelligence allow us to study
interconnected system we
and understand nature
cannot fully understand
• we can predict and manage • humans should respect
nature
nature, not try to control it
• we’re confident that new
technical solutions can be
found
• it’s best to follow a
precautionary approach, and
not do new things unless
we’re sure about the impacts