Transcript How to Think about Business Sustainability and

Clean Energy and Climate Change
Chris Mottershead
integrated response to key drivers
security of energy
supply
economic growth
and social progress
changes to our
environment
carbon constraint
carbon emissions
• there are many uncertainties, and science is always provisional
• precautionary action to limit global temperature changes to around 2oC
• means limiting atmospheric concentrations of CO2 to 500-550ppm
• and therefore aiming for 7Gtc/year of emissions by 2050
7Gtc/year
fossil fuel base
1990
2050
reducing emission intensity
reduction in carbon
intensity
carbon emissions
(environmental incentives)
1990
fossil fuel base
2050
technology enabled breakthroughs
reduction in carbon
intensity
carbon emissions
(environmental incentives)
1990
technology enabled
breakthroughs
(economic growth incentives)
fossil fuel base
2050
policy regimes
reduction in carbon
intensity
carbon emissions
(environmental incentives)
technology enabled
breakthroughs
(economic growth incentives)
fossil fuel base
1990
2050
engagement and
emission constraints
business development
and competition
lower carbon economy
stabilization wedge
14
Stabilization
Triangle
Gtc/year
7
0
1950
2000
2050
Rob Socolow and Steve Pacala Princeton University
seven 1Gtc/year wedges
7 wedges
are needed to
build the
stabilisation
Wedge
14
7
0
1950
2000
2050
Stabilization
Triangle
1 “wedge”
1 wedge
Flat path
1 wedge
avoids 1 billion
tonnes of carbon
emissions
per year by 2050
possible 1Gtc/year wedges
1. internal combustion
engine efficiency
2. demand side
reductions, e.g. reduce
use of vehicles
3. buildings energy
efficiency
4. industrial process
efficiency
5. efficient baseload coal
plant
8. carbon capture & storage for
transport, e.g. synfuels from
coal
9. nuclear
10. wind
11. pv solar
12. biomass for transport and
power
13. hydrogen from gas
14. zero emission hydrogen
6. gas for coal power
15. forestation
7. carbon capture &
storage for power
16. tillage
BP achieves its
2010 target 9 years
early, having
reduced GHG
emissions by energy
efficiency projects
and cutting flaring of
unwanted gas,
creating $650M in
value
Based on work at
Princeton, BP sets
out range of
technology options to
stabilize GHG
emissions over 50
years, including
increases in solar,
wind, gas-fired power
and carbon capture
and storage
BP announces plans
for world’s first
commercial
hydrogen power
station.
2003
2005
2000
2002
2004
BP launches
Alternative Energy
1998
1997
BP predicts $1 bn
revenue in its solar
business in 2007
BP initiates the CO2
Capture Project with
other companies
and governments,
studying methods of
capturing and
storing carbon
dioxide at power
plants
2001
BP acknowledges
need for
precautionary
action to cut GHG
emissions after
exiting the Global
Climate Coalition.
1999
climate change – the BP journey
BP sets target to
cut emissions from
operations to 10%
below 1990 levels
by 2010
BP begins funding
the Carbon
Mitigation Initiative
at Princeton
University, exploring
solutions to climate
change
BP announces plans
to build wind farm at
Nerefco, Netherlands
BP’s solar business
moves into profit and
announces plans to
double production. On
track to meet 1997
revenue prediction
BP launches carbon
dioxide capture and
storage project at gas
field in Algeria
BP’s response – so far
• alternative energy
– new business, investing $8B over 10 years
•
•
•
•
profitable PV business with $1B revenues by 2007
450MW of wind by 2008
2 hydrogen power stations under construction by 2008 (UK & US)
CCGT (already have 13 GW - 6GW net, plus fleet of 500 turbines)
– reducing emissions by 24Mtco2/year by 2015
• sustainable mobility
–
–
–
–
around 10% of global biofuels market
advanced biofuels have considerable potential, possibly 30% of transport fuel
Global Choice in Australia offsetting 1MtCO2
lubricants can have a big impact, Castrol in India nearly 0.3 MtCO2/year
• increased gas production
– one major gas pipeline offsets 120Mtco2, if it displaces coal
policy dimensions
need for ‘wedges’ to compete with fossil fuels,
when carbon externality is included,
by support of :
• market development
engagement of business and consumers
• technology development
R&D and demonstration projects in those areas
identified as being potential ‘wedges’
• business development
incentives and support to establish new and
competitive businesses
policy partnership for business growth
• Emissions Cap and Trade or Taxes schemes to drive efficiency into
existing infrastructure,
• Transitional Incentives to encourage the commercial deployment of
near to market technologies like renewables and carbon capture and
storage,
• Investment Criteria to ensure that all new energy infrastructures are
competitive against cost and emission benchmarks,
• Public Awareness to create acceptance of public policy and an
increasing customer base for clean and secure energy,
• Regulation where there is clear market failure, for example energy
efficiency in buildings,
• Tax and Trade Consistency to remove inconsistencies and barriers, for
example to allow the creation of an open global market for biofuels.