Transcript Relevant Climate studies of the Ghana Meteorological Agency

Relevant Climate studies of the Ghana
Meteorological Agency (GMet)
By
AYILARI-NAA JUATI
AND
ELIKEM SETSOAFIA
19-23 November 2012
DATA RESCUE WORKSHOP
Erata Hotel, Accra, Ghana
THE GHANA
METEOROLOGICAL
AGENCY
PROVIDING WEATHER AND
CLIMATE INFORMATION FOR
RAPID SOCIO-ECONOMIC
DEVELOPMENT
OUTLINE
• Network of Meteorological stations
• The Volta Basin (covering 6 W/African
countries)
• Dams within the Volta Basin
• Some climate studies of GMet in the Sudan
and Guinea Savannah of Ghana.
• Comparing results of these studies with
Climate Indices for Wa in the Guinea Savannah
• Challenges and Recommendations
National Observing Network
NETWORK OF SYNOPTIC STATIONS
11.0
Navrongo
Wa
10.0
Tamale
Yendi
Bole
9.0
8.0
22 Synoptic
stations
Kete Krachi
Wenchi
Sunyani
7.0
Kumasi
Abetifi
Sefwi Bekwai
Koforidua
Akim Oda
6.0
Ho
Akuse
Akatsi
Ada
Accra
Saltpond
Tema
Axim Takoradi
5.0
-3.0
-2.0
-1.0
0.0
1.0
NETWORK OF CLIMATOLOGICAL STATIONS
11.0
10.0
61
Climatological
stations
9.0
8.0
7.0
6.0
61
5.0
-3.0
-2.0
-1.0
0.0
1.0
NETWORK OF AGROMETEOROLOGICAL STATIONS
11.0
10.0
9.0
54 stations
8.0
7.0
6.0
54
5.0
-3.0
-2.0
-1.0
0.0
1.0
NETWORK OF RAINFALL STATIONS
11.0
10.0
Many
stations
closing
down
because
Volunteers
are not
happy with
“motivation”.
9.0
8.0
7.0
6.0
156 stations
countrywide
out of
original 600
5.0
156
-3.0
-2.0
-1.0
0.0
1.0
THE VOLTA BASIN
THE BASIN COVERS 6 COUNTRIES. VOLTA BASIN AUTHORITY formed
to help regulate the efficient use of water resources within the basin.
Average yearly Rainfall over Northern Ghana ( 1971 to 2007)
1300
Rainfall
showing a
decreasing
trend over the
years
1200
1100
1000
North(Mean)
900
800
700
600
1965
1983,1992, 2001
El Nino years
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
Rainfall variability here can be as high as 400mm between
seasons
High
Incidences of
drought to the
Western parts
of northern
Ghana
High
Incidences of
drought
around
Nkwanta area.
High Incidences of
drought around
Kete-Krachi
(1961-2007)
High Incidences of
drought around
southern Central,
Western and Volta
Regions, like ,
Ada,Kpetoe, Tsito,
Cape Coast etc
Here high
Incidences of
drought covering
most of the
Western part of
Ghana.
(1961-2007)
Areas around
Kete-Krachi,
Southern Volta,
Central and
Western
Regions as well
as Eastern
Coasts are much
affected
(1961-2007)
Expected changes in temperature and rainfall for the
Sudan and Guinea Savannah areas of Ghana_run by
GMet ( Ghana National Communication _IPCC)
• Baseline period is 1961-1990
• Data used ; Daily rainfall in millimetres
• Rainfall amount of less than 0.2 millimetres not
counted as a rainfall day.
• Daily temperature degrees Celsius
• A1B Scenario (TAR and AR4) i.e: rapid econ. growth,
quick spread of global technology, global pop of 9
billion in 2050 dwindling gradually thereafter, quick
spread of new & efficient technology, a convergent
world( income & way of life between regions)- SRES
• SRES= Special Report on Emission Scenarios
Sudan Savannah Temperature
change/scenarios
Mean Temp. increase ranging from 0.5 to 5.0 from 2020 to 2080
Guinea Savannah Temperature
change/scenarios
Baseline Mean Temp.
Month
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Ann.
Mean Temp. Change
Climate Scenarios
T-Max.
T-Min.
T-Mean
2020
2050
2080
2020
2050
2080
35.0
18.9
26.9
0.6
2.0
4.1
27.5
28.9
31.0
36.9
22.0
29.4
0.7
2.2
4.2
30.1
31.6
33.6
37.0
24.1
30.6
0.7
2.1
4.2
31.3
32.7
34.8
35.3
24.4
29.9
0.6
2.3
4.5
30.5
32.2
34.4
33.5
23.5
28.5
0.6
2.2
4.4
29.1
30.7
32.9
31.1
22.3
26.7
0.5
1.9
3.8
27.2
28.6
30.5
29.7
21.8
25.7
0.5
1.7
3.5
26.2
27.4
29.2
29.4
21.7
25.5
0.5
1.8
3.4
26.0
27.3
28.9
30.2
21.5
25.8
0.5
1.6
3.2
26.3
27.4
29.0
32.5
21.7
27.1
0.5
1.6
3.4
27.6
28.7
30.5
34.5
20.2
27.3
0.6
2.0
3.9
27.9
29.3
31.2
34.4
18.4
26.4
0.6
2.0
4.0
27.0
28.4
30.4
33.3
21.7
27.5
0.6
2.0
3.9
28.1
29.4
31.4
Temp change here between 0.6 and 4.5 from 2020 to 2080
Sudan Savannah Precipitation
Rainfall expected to decrease by 10 to 17% by 2080 in June to October
Guinea Savannah Precipitation
Rainfall to decrease even further by up to 25% from June to Sept in this Zone
Monthly Maximum Value of Daily Max Temp for Wa
Monthly Daily value of Daily Min Temp for Wa
Annual Count when Daily Minimum
Temperature >20 degrees for Wa
Annual Total Precip in Wet days for Wa
Heavy Precipitation days (RR>20mm) for Wa
Challenges: database issues
 Some amount of data digitized
 A lot more needs to be digitized
 Poor Meta database
 Incorporating data from Automatic
Observations from about 18 recently( 2011)
installed AWSs
 QC issues and missing data
 Incorporating data ( 18th Century) recently
recovered from the UK into database
MORE CHALLENGES
• Putting data in appropriate
format for R to run a difficulty
• Missing values >20% in each
year implies no Indices? A
limitation.
• Deciding Outliers can be a real
difficulty; in the face of MCS
(Mesoscale Convective Systems)
in West Africa.
RECOMMENDATIONS
URGENT NEED FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF ADEQUATE HUMAN CAPITAL
IN THE FIELD OF CLIMATE CHANGE STUDIES / RESEARCH AND CLIMATE
MODELLING (DOWNSCALING ) , EXTREME VALUE ANALYSIS ,IN GHANA.
BUILDING CREDIBLE DATABASES INCLUDING META DATA.
CRITICAL NEED FOR THE CALCULATION AND EXCHANGE OF RELEVANT
CLIMATE INDICES IN THE WEST AFRICAN SUB- REGION.
WMO CONTINUES TO SERVE AS THE PLATFORM FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF USER-FRIENDLY SOFTWARE FOR THE EXTRACTION OF
RELEVANT CLIMATE INDICES.
GENDER MAINSTREAMING IN CLIMATE CHANGE ISSUES.
THANK YOU
•
AYILARI-NAA JUATI
• E:MAIL: [email protected]
• TEL: +233 307012519
•
ELIKEM SETSOAFIA
• E:MAIL: [email protected]
• TEL: +233 549617048