Transcript Transportation and Climate Change: Real Solutions for Greenhouse

Transportation and Climate Change:
Real Solutions for Greenhouse Gas
Mitigation
David L. Greene
AASHTO Annual Meeting
October 25, 2009
Palm Desert, California
WARNING:
“The energy future which we are creating is unsustainable. If we
continue as before, the energy supply to meet the needs of the world
economy over the next twenty-five years is too vulnerable to failure
arising from under-investment, environmental catastrophe or sudden
supply interruption.”
International Energy Agency, Paris
World Energy Outlook 2006
“The projected rise in emissions of greenhouse gases in the Reference
Scenario puts us on a course of doubling the concentration of those
gases in the atmosphere by the end of this century, entailing an
eventual global average temperature increase of up to 6%.”
International Energy Agency, Paris
World Energy Outlook 2008
Climate change means change
for transportation.
• What is the GHG challenge for
transportation?
• Can we do it?
• What do we know will work?
• What are we not so sure about?
• What does this mean for AASHTO and its
members?
Society has three main energy goals.
• Greenhouse gas mitigation
– Stabilize atmospheric GHG concentrations at levels that will avoid
dangerous climate change = 50% to 80% reduction by 2050.
– North American motor vehicles emit more GHGs than any country in the
world, except China (and the U.S.).
• Sustainable energy
– Energy resources enabling future generations to achieve a level of well
being at least as good as our own
– Energy for 2 billion cars, or more, by 2050!
• Oil independence
– Eliminate “restraining or directing influence of others” due to the economy’s
(transportation system’s) dependence on oil.
– Insure that oil dependence costs are less than 1% of GDP with 95%
probability by 2030 = increased supply + decreased demand = 11 mmbd.
WHAT IS TRANSPORTATION’S “FAIR SHARE”?
A C-price that would cut utilities C emissions in half by
2030 ($50/tCO2) would have a modest impact on
transportation emissions ($0.50/gal.). (EIA, 2006).
Energy Information Administration Analysis of Alternative GHG
Reduction Policies ($30/tCO2 in 2010, $50/tCO2 in 2030)
Million Metric Tons CO2 Equivalent
3500
3000
2500
2000
1500
Transportation Reference
Transportation $50/tCO2
1000
Electric Power Reference
Electric Power $50/tCO2
500
0
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
Why is transportation different?
• Interdependent with land use, spatial
structure “markets”.
• Governments’ huge role in infrastructure
investment, regulation, operation.
• Important market “imperfections”
– Externalities
– Oil market monopoly behavior
– Energy efficiency and uncertainty/loss
aversion bias
• Technology and energy “lock in”
Changing petroleum dependence of the ICE
transportation system is not easily done.
Transportation Energy Use, 1950-2008
30
25
Quads
20
15
10
Other
Petroleum
5
0
1950
1960
1970
1980
1990
Source: USDOE/EIA, AER 2007 table 2.1e, MER March, 2009 table 2.5
2000
But, Greene & Schafer (Pew Center, 2003) concluded
that a comprehensive, tailored set of strategies could
cut U.S. transportation emissions in half by 2030.
Total < Sum of Components
Sources of Transportation GHG
Reductions, 2015 and 2030
60%
Information and
Education.
50%
Systems
Infrastructure
Pricing
40%
Carbon Cap
Hydrogen
30%
Low-Carbon
Fuels
Air Efficiency
20%
Heavy Duty
Truck Effic.
10%
LDV Efficiency
0%
2015
2030
Source: Greene and Schafer, Pew Center on Global Climate Change, May 2003.
Some policies we know will work.
• Fuel economy standards. ✔
• Policies that increase the price of energy
or carbon.
– C tax or C cap-and-trade
– Energy taxes
– PATP insurance, etc.
• Subsidies for clean vehicles or energy
sources. ✓
CAFE standards decoupled vehicle travel and fuel use,
today saving US motorists 75 billion gallons/year.
Miles of Travel and Fuel Use by Light-duty Vehicles: 1965-2007
3000000
240000
190000
Vehicle Travel
Fuel USe
2000000
140000
1500000
90000
1000000
40000
500000
0
1965
-10000
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
Gallons (millions)
Vehicle Miles (millions)
2500000
Other policies we are less sure of.
• Land use, spatial structure and travel
demand.
– Some notable successes but isolated
– NRC report says 1% to 11% by 2050
•
•
•
•
Feebates
Low carbon fuels standard
Government sponsored RDD & D
ENERGY TRANSITION POLICIES
Where does AASHTO fit in?
•
•
•
•
Education, information, behavior.
Improving system efficiency.
Pricing transportation.
Contributing to land use and
infrastructure solutions.
• Assisting with the energy transition.
Transform the motor fuel tax to a
user fee on transportation work.
• PHYSICS: work is the application of force
over a distance (moving something).
– Transportation IS work.
• PHYSICS: Energy is the ability to do work.
– No energy, no work, no transportation.
• Holding efficiency (work/energy input)
constant, energy use is directly
proportional to transportation work.
Inflation (3.7%/yr.) caused the greatest loss of real highway
revenue, followed by fuel economy increases (2.7%/yr.),
followed by alternative fuels (ethanol).
National Surface Transportation Policy and Revenue Study Commission Briefing Paper 04-05, 2007.
Given our energy problems, a
VMT tax is the wrong solution.
• Convert the motor fuels tax to a transportation
work user fee. Tax ALL transportation energy.
• Index the tax rate to the average energy
efficiency of vehicles on the road.
• Index the tax rate to a relevant inflation index.
• Encourage energy efficiency improvement,
reducing GHG emissions.
• Reduce VMT via energy cost per mile.
• Congestion charging, too.
• Carbon pricing, too.
Where does AASHTO fit in?
•
•
•
•
Education, information, behavior.
Improving system efficiency.
Pricing transportation.
Contributing to land use and
infrastructure solutions.
• Assisting with the energy transition.
Thank you.
A 2007 MIT study predicts MPG gains of 80-85% for
model year 2030 vehicles via continuous improvement
of conventional technology at a rate of 2-2.5%/year.
Potential for Advanced Technologies to Increase Fuel Economy by 2030
100
90.8
86.0
90
Camry 2.5L
EPA Combined MPG
80
Camry 3.0
70
F-150 Pick-up
58.2
60
51.5
49.9
50
30
46.4
42.1
40
58.6
56.8
31.2
25.5
20.4
32.0
2005 Base
2030 Adv.
40.6
37.9
20
10
0
2030 Diesel
2030 Turbo SI 2030 Hybrid
Source: Kasseris & Heywood, SAE Technical Paper 2007-01-1605, April, 2007.
Unless our climate models are very wrong, we are about
to boldly go where no human has gone before.
Leaving the envelope of
the Earth’s experience
Chances are, we won’t like
it there. Can we avoid
dangerous climate change?
Among energy end use sectors, transportation is the largest emitter of
CO2, almost as large as electric power. U.S. transportation vehicles
emit more than any nation in the world except China.
Primary Carbon Dioxide Emissions by Sector: 1980-2006
Million Metric Tons CO 2
3,000
Electric Power
Transportation
Industry
Buildings
2,500
2,000
1,500
1,000
500
0
1980
1985
1990
1995
Source: USDOE/EIA, Annual Energy Review 2008, table 12.2.
2000
2005
Highway vehicles, especially passenger cars and light
trucks, account for most (78%) transportation C emissions.
Transportation GHG Emissions by Mode, 2005
Rail
3%
Ships &
Boats
3%
Aircraft
9%
Other
7%
Passenger
Cars
31%
Buses
1%
Heavy
Trucks
19%
Light Trucks
27%
Source: USEPA, 2007, U.S. GHG Inventory, table 2-17.
The fuel economy standards for new passenger cars and light
trucks drove improvement in light-duty fuel economy in the US.
New Light-Duty Vehicle Fuel Economy and CAFE Standards
35
Miles per Gallon
30
25
20
15
Passenger Car
Car CAFE
10
Light Truck
5
Truck CAFE
0
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
According to FHWA data, on-road fleet average fuel
economy followed the new vehicle improvements with a lag
of about 10 years.
Fuel Economy Of New Light-Duty Vehicles
Versus On-Road Fleet MPG, 1975-2005
25
Miles per Gallon
20
15
New Vehicle On-Road MPG
10
On-Road Fleet MPG
5
0
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
Efficiency improvement alone will
not be enough.
Battery Electric
Today’s
Technology
PHEV30 / Fuel Cell
Advanced Hybrid
Advanced ICEs
To reduce transportaton GHG emissions by
70-80% by 2050, transportation must
transition to low carbon electricity or
hydrogen.
Well-to-Wheel GHG Emissions of Advanced Vehicle Technologiess
300
gCO2/km
250
200
Tank-to-Wheels
Well-to-Tank
150
100
50
EV
20
30
2
H
B
FC
V
60
20
30
PH
EV
30
20
30
PH
20
30
PH
EV
10
EV
EV
H
20
30
20
30
D
ie
se
l
SI
20
30
Tu
rb
o
A
N
20
30
20
30
20
06
B
as
e
SI
0
Source: Kromer & Heywood, 2007. Assumes H2 from natural gas, electricity is EIA 2030 mix.